由於美國證券交易委員會的決定和通膨擔憂，以太坊可能會下跌

受兩個關鍵因素的影響，以太坊可能在 5 月大幅下跌。 VanEck 現貨 ETF 申請的待審查可能會導緻美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的拒絕，美國證券交易委員會已對以太坊的證券分類表達了負面情緒。此外，儘管實施了銷毀機制，以太坊網路上持續的通貨膨脹正在侵蝕其價值。這些因素，再加上與比特幣掛鉤的 ETF 的強勁表​​現，顯示兩種加密貨幣之間的表現差距正在擴大。

Ethereum's May Decline: A Comprehensive Analysis

以太坊可能下跌：綜合分析

Ethereum has consistently underperformed Bitcoin for three consecutive years, marking a 13% decline since January alone. This trend is expected to intensify in May for two major reasons: the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) looming decision on VanEck's spot ETF application and the cryptocurrency's ongoing inflation woes.

以太坊連續三年表現落後於比特幣，僅自 1 月以來就下跌了 13%。由於兩個主要原因，這一趨勢預計將在 5 月加劇：美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 即將對 VanEck 現貨 ETF 申請做出決定，以及加密貨幣持續的通膨困境。

VanEck's Spot ETF Application and the SEC's Stance

VanEck 的現貨 ETF 申請和 SEC 的立場

Investors eagerly await the SEC's review of VanEck's spot ETF application, with a deadline of May 23rd. A successful launch could spark a surge in Ethereum investment, similar to the $11.7 billion influx that Bitcoin ETFs have attracted in the United States over the past five months.

投資者熱切等待 SEC 對 VanEck 現貨 ETF 申請的審查，截止日期為 5 月 23 日。成功推出可能會引發以太坊投資激增，類似於過去五個月比特幣 ETF 在美國吸引的 117 億美元流入。

However, the SEC has expressed reservations about Ethereum's transition to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) algorithm, Chairman Gary Gensler labeling it a security rather than a commodity. This distinction imposes strict requirements on ETF managers and investors, making approval less likely.

然而，美國證券交易委員會對以太坊向權益證明（PoS）演算法的過渡表示保留，主席加里·根斯勒（Gary Gensler）將其標記為證券而不是商品。這種區別對 ETF 管理者和投資者提出了嚴格的要求，從而降低了獲得批准的可能性。

Ark Invest and 21Shares recently revised their proposal to exclude staking participation, but experts believe this will not appease the SEC's concerns. The regulatory body has maintained a negative stance towards Ethereum since its PoS transition.

Ark Invest 和 21Shares 最近修改了他們的提案，排除了質押參與，但專家認為這不會平息 SEC 的擔憂。自 PoS 轉型以來，監管機構一直對以太坊保持負面立場。

The SEC's lack of negotiations with applicants, unlike in the case of Bitcoin ETFs, further hints at a potential rejection. If VanEck's application is denied, it could trigger a sell-off, as investors lose faith in Ethereum's prospects.

與比特幣 ETF 的情況不同，美國證券交易委員會缺乏與申請人的談判，這進一步暗示了可能會被拒絕。如果 VanEck 的申請被拒絕，可能會引發拋售，因為投資者對以太坊的前景失去信心。

Inflationary Pressures and Network Activity

通膨壓力和網絡活動

Despite the London hard fork and the introduction of a burning mechanism, Ethereum's inflation rate has rebounded to 0.4% over the past month, reaching 0.583% over the last seven days.

儘管倫敦硬分叉並引入銷毀機制，以太坊的通貨膨脹率在過去一個月內仍反彈至0.4%，最近7天達到0.583%。

The surge in staking enthusiasm and the low network activity have contributed to this undesirable outcome. With over 1 million active validators, the network has become congested. The algorithm for reducing rewards based on the number of validators has proven inadequate, prompting developers to consider forced reward reductions.

質押熱情的激增和網路活動的低迷導致了這種不良結果。由於有超過 100 萬活躍驗證者，網路已經變得擁擠。根據驗證者數量減少獎勵的演算法已被證明是不夠的，促使開發人員考慮強制減少獎勵。

Meanwhile, network activity has decreased due to a shift towards Layer 2 (L2) and Layer 3 (L3) networks. This has resulted in fewer transactions on Ethereum and less coin burning.

同時，由於轉向第 2 層 (L2) 和第 3 層 (L3) 網絡，網絡活動有所減少。這導致以太坊上的交易減少，硬幣燃燒也減少。

Analysts at CoinFactiva.com predict that Ethereum's inflation will persist, negatively impacting the cryptocurrency's value in the long term. Combined with the potential rejection of VanEck's ETF application, this could widen the performance gap between Ethereum and Bitcoin.

CoinFactiva.com 的分析師預測，以太坊的通膨將持續下去，從長遠來看會對加密貨幣的價值產生負面影響。再加上 VanEck 的 ETF 申請可能被拒絕，這可能會擴大以太坊和比特幣之間的性能差距。

Conclusion

結論

Ethereum faces significant challenges in May, with the SEC's decision on VanEck's spot ETF application and its ongoing inflation woes being key factors. While investors eagerly anticipate a positive outcome on the ETF front, the SEC's reservations and the cryptocurrency's inflationary pressures cast a shadow over Ethereum's prospects. A rejection of the ETF application could trigger a sell-off, further exacerbating the inflation issue and leading to a widening gap in performance compared to Bitcoin. Investors are advised to exercise caution and monitor these developments closely.

以太坊在 5 月面臨重大挑戰，SEC 對 VanEck 現貨 ETF 申請的決定及其持續的通膨困境是關鍵因素。儘管投資者熱切期待 ETF 取得積極成果，但美國證券交易委員會的保留意見和加密貨幣的通膨壓力卻給以太坊的前景蒙上了陰影。 ETF申請被拒絕可能會引發拋售，進一步加劇通膨問題，並導致與比特幣相比的表現差距擴大。建議投資者謹慎行事並密切注意這些事態發展。