售價16天后，Ether（ETH）價格已上漲1,700美元

儘管有反彈，但Ether的表現不佳，越來越多的山寨幣市場逐漸延長23％。

Ether (ETH) price has climbed above $1,700 after 16 days of selling pressure caused by macroeconomic uncertainty and a sharp decline in onchain activity.

在宏觀經濟不確定性引起的銷售壓力16天后，Ether（ETH）的價格已攀升至1,700美元以上，而OnChain活動的急劇下降。

Despite the rebound, Ether has massively underperformed the broader altcoin market by 23% year-to-date. Some traders claim that ETH is set for a “generational” bull run as it offers a “truly” decentralized and permissionless financial system, but is that really the case?

儘管有反彈，但Ether的表現使更廣泛的Altcoin市場年初至今增長了23％。一些交易者聲稱，ETH是為“世代相傳”的公牛運行設定的，因為它提供了“真正的”分散且無許可的金融體系，但確實如此？

Ether was one of the few major cryptocurrencies that did not reach a new all-time high in 2025, unlike competitors such as Solana (SOL), Tron (TRX), and BNB (BNB). Some critics argue that moving away from proof-of-work mining removed a competitive advantage that Ethereum once had over its rivals.

Ether是少數在2025年沒有達到新歷史高潮的主要加密貨幣之一，與競爭對手（例如Solana（Sol），Tron（TRX）（TRX）和BNB（BNB）不同。一些批評家認為，擺脫工作證明的採礦取消了以太坊曾經比其競爭對手擁有的競爭優勢。

Ethereum fee drop signals ETH price weakness

以太坊費用下降信號ETH價格弱點

Eventually, Ether may outperform its competitors, even if only for a short period, and influencers who are calling for a “generational bottom” will celebrate their predictions, despite the lack of strong fundamentals to support lasting price growth.

最終，即使僅在短時間內，以太幣也可能勝過其競爭對手，儘管缺乏支持持久價格增長的強大基本原理，但呼籲“世代底層”的有影響力的人都會慶祝他們的預測。

However, considering the 95% drop in Ethereum fees since January, the chances of an immediate ETH surge seem low. The low demand for data processing on the Ethereum network causes ETH to become inflationary, as the built-in burn mechanism is not enough to balance the new coins issued to cover staking rewards.

但是，考慮到自1月以來的以太坊費用下降了95％，立即激增的機會似乎很低。對以太坊網絡的數據處理需求的低需求導致ETH成為通貨膨脹，因為內置的燃燒機制不足以平衡發行的新硬幣以覆蓋積分獎勵。

Despite being the clear leader in Total Value Locked (TVL), traders are generally uninterested in this metric since it hasn’t translated into higher demand for the Ethereum network or increased scarcity for ETH.

儘管是總價值鎖定的明確領導者（TVL），但交易者通常對該指標不感興趣，因為它沒有轉化為對以太坊網絡的更高需求或ETH的稀缺性增加。

As a result, even if Ethereum’s fundamentals improve, optimism among ETH holders is declining, while competitors — especially Solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) investors — are hopeful about the approval of their spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US. Currently, spot ETFs in the US are only available for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), so additional offerings would likely reduce the potential institutional demand for altcoins.

結果，即使以太坊的基本面有所改善，ETH持有人的樂觀情緒也在下降，而競爭對手（尤其是Solana（Sol）和XRP（XRP）投資者）希望對美國現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）的批准充滿希望。目前，美國的現場ETF僅適用於比特幣（BTC）和Ether（ETH），因此其他產品可能會減少對山寨幣的潛在製度需求。

To illustrate, US-listed spot Ether ETFs saw $10 million in net outflows between April 21 and April 23, while similar BTC instruments experienced record-breaking inflows.

為了說明，在4月21日至4月23日之間，美國上市的Ether ETF在4月21日至4月23日之間看到了1000萬美元的淨流出，而類似的BTC儀器則經歷了創紀錄的流入。

History shows ETH price rallies seldom last long

歷史表明，Eth Price集會很少最後很長

Historical evidence does not favor a lasting outperformance compared to competitors, which lowers the odds of a sustainable ETH rally.

與競爭對手相比，歷史證據不利於持久的表現，這降低了可持續性集會的機率。

For example, Ether’s market share in the altcoin capitalization reached a low point in June 2022 at around 26.5% when the ETH price dropped below $1,100. After a quick rally to $2,000 by August 2022, the momentum faded, and ETH’s price fell below $1,200 less than three months later. This sudden correction likely left many investors frustrated, as they had to wait eight months for ETH to reclaim $2,000 in April 2023.

例如，Ether在Altcoin資本化中的市場份額在2022年6月達到了低點，當時ETH價格下跌低於1,100美元時，Ether的市場份額約為26.5％。在2022年8月的迅速集會至2,000美元之後，勢頭消失了，ETH的價格少於三個月後的價格低於1,200美元。這種突然的更正可能使許多投資者感到沮喪，因為他們不得不等待八個月才能在2023年4月獲得2,000美元。

A similar pattern happened in April 2021, when Ether’s altcoin market share bottomed out at 26.8%. After that, the ETH price climbed from $2,100 to $4,200 by May 2021, only to fall below $2,000 the following month. Again, traders who bought near the cycle top had to wait six months just to recover their investment. This history has taught Ether traders to take profits quickly, which reduces the chances of reaching a new all-time high.

類似的模式發生在2021年4月，當時Ether的Altcoin市場份額以26.8％的速度觸底。此後，到2021年5月，ETH價格從2,100美元上漲至4,200美元，僅在下個月下降到2,000美元以下。同樣，在周期頂部購買的交易者必須等待六個月才能收回投資。這段歷史已經教會了以太貿易商迅速獲得利潤，這減少了達到新歷史最高水平的機會。

It is difficult to pinpoint what triggered previous Ether bull runs, especially as the narrative has shifted from utility tokens to NFT marketplaces, artificial intelligence, memecoins, and, more recently, RWA tokenization. While some influencers believe in strong ETH momentum, others warn there could be another 15% drop compared to Bitcoin’s performance.

很難確定觸發以太牛的運行的原因，尤其是當敘述從公用事業令牌轉移到NFT市場，人工智能，成員以及最近的RWA令牌化時。儘管一些有影響力的人認為具有強大的ETH勢頭，但其他有影響力的人警告說，與比特幣的性能相比，可能會再下降15％。

In the end, historical evidence does not support a lasting ETH price rally, even if it bottoms out relative to the broader altcoin market capitalization.

最後，歷史證據不支持持久的ETH價格集會，即使相對於更廣泛的Altcoin市值降低了。