售价16天后，Ether（ETH）价格已上涨1,700美元

尽管有反弹，但Ether的表现不佳，越来越多的山寨币市场逐渐延长23％。

Ether (ETH) price has climbed above $1,700 after 16 days of selling pressure caused by macroeconomic uncertainty and a sharp decline in onchain activity.

在宏观经济不确定性引起的销售压力16天后，Ether（ETH）的价格已攀升至1,700美元以上，而OnChain活动的急剧下降。

Despite the rebound, Ether has massively underperformed the broader altcoin market by 23% year-to-date. Some traders claim that ETH is set for a “generational” bull run as it offers a “truly” decentralized and permissionless financial system, but is that really the case?

尽管有反弹，但Ether的表现使更广泛的Altcoin市场年初至今增长了23％。一些交易者声称，ETH是为“世代相传”的公牛运行设定的，因为它提供了“真正的”分散且无许可的金融体系，但确实如此？

Ether was one of the few major cryptocurrencies that did not reach a new all-time high in 2025, unlike competitors such as Solana (SOL), Tron (TRX), and BNB (BNB). Some critics argue that moving away from proof-of-work mining removed a competitive advantage that Ethereum once had over its rivals.

Ether是少数在2025年没有达到新历史高潮的主要加密货币之一，与竞争对手（例如Solana（Sol），Tron（TRX）（TRX）和BNB（BNB）不同。一些批评家认为，摆脱工作证明的采矿取消了以太坊曾经比其竞争对手拥有的竞争优势。

Ethereum fee drop signals ETH price weakness

以太坊费用下降信号ETH价格弱点

Eventually, Ether may outperform its competitors, even if only for a short period, and influencers who are calling for a “generational bottom” will celebrate their predictions, despite the lack of strong fundamentals to support lasting price growth.

最终，即使仅在短时间内，以太币也可能胜过其竞争对手，尽管缺乏支持持久价格增长的强大基本原理，但呼吁“世代底层”的有影响力的人都会庆祝他们的预测。

However, considering the 95% drop in Ethereum fees since January, the chances of an immediate ETH surge seem low. The low demand for data processing on the Ethereum network causes ETH to become inflationary, as the built-in burn mechanism is not enough to balance the new coins issued to cover staking rewards.

但是，考虑到自1月以来的以太坊费用下降了95％，立即激增的机会似乎很低。对以太坊网络的数据处理需求的低需求导致ETH成为通货膨胀，因为内置的燃烧机制不足以平衡发行的新硬币以覆盖积分奖励。

Despite being the clear leader in Total Value Locked (TVL), traders are generally uninterested in this metric since it hasn’t translated into higher demand for the Ethereum network or increased scarcity for ETH.

尽管是总价值锁定的明确领导者（TVL），但交易者通常对该指标不感兴趣，因为它没有转化为对以太坊网络的更高需求或ETH的稀缺性增加。

As a result, even if Ethereum’s fundamentals improve, optimism among ETH holders is declining, while competitors — especially Solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) investors — are hopeful about the approval of their spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US. Currently, spot ETFs in the US are only available for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), so additional offerings would likely reduce the potential institutional demand for altcoins.

结果，即使以太坊的基本面有所改善，ETH持有人的乐观情绪也在下降，而竞争对手（尤其是Solana（Sol）和XRP（XRP）投资者）希望对美国现货交易所交易基金（ETF）的批准充满希望。目前，美国的现场ETF仅适用于比特币（BTC）和Ether（ETH），因此其他产品可能会减少对山寨币的潜在制度需求。

To illustrate, US-listed spot Ether ETFs saw $10 million in net outflows between April 21 and April 23, while similar BTC instruments experienced record-breaking inflows.

为了说明，在4月21日至4月23日之间，美国上市的Ether ETF在4月21日至4月23日之间看到了1000万美元的净流出，而类似的BTC仪器则经历了创纪录的流入。

History shows ETH price rallies seldom last long

历史表明，Eth Price集会很少最后很长

Historical evidence does not favor a lasting outperformance compared to competitors, which lowers the odds of a sustainable ETH rally.

与竞争对手相比，历史证据不利于持久的表现，这降低了可持续性集会的几率。

For example, Ether’s market share in the altcoin capitalization reached a low point in June 2022 at around 26.5% when the ETH price dropped below $1,100. After a quick rally to $2,000 by August 2022, the momentum faded, and ETH’s price fell below $1,200 less than three months later. This sudden correction likely left many investors frustrated, as they had to wait eight months for ETH to reclaim $2,000 in April 2023.

例如，Ether在Altcoin资本化中的市场份额在2022年6月达到了低点，当时ETH价格下跌低于1,100美元时，Ether的市场份额约为26.5％。在2022年8月的迅速集会至2,000美元之后，势头消失了，ETH的价格少于三个月后的价格低于1,200美元。这种突然的更正可能使许多投资者感到沮丧，因为他们不得不等待八个月才能在2023年4月获得2,000美元。

A similar pattern happened in April 2021, when Ether’s altcoin market share bottomed out at 26.8%. After that, the ETH price climbed from $2,100 to $4,200 by May 2021, only to fall below $2,000 the following month. Again, traders who bought near the cycle top had to wait six months just to recover their investment. This history has taught Ether traders to take profits quickly, which reduces the chances of reaching a new all-time high.

类似的模式发生在2021年4月，当时Ether的Altcoin市场份额以26.8％的速度触底。此后，到2021年5月，ETH价格从2,100美元上涨至4,200美元，仅在下个月下降到2,000美元以下。同样，在周期顶部购买的交易者必须等待六个月才能收回投资。这段历史已经教会了以太贸易商迅速获得利润，这减少了达到新历史最高水平的机会。

It is difficult to pinpoint what triggered previous Ether bull runs, especially as the narrative has shifted from utility tokens to NFT marketplaces, artificial intelligence, memecoins, and, more recently, RWA tokenization. While some influencers believe in strong ETH momentum, others warn there could be another 15% drop compared to Bitcoin’s performance.

很难确定触发以太牛的运行的原因，尤其是当叙述从公用事业令牌转移到NFT市场，人工智能，成员以及最近的RWA令牌化时。尽管一些有影响力的人认为具有强大的ETH势头，但其他有影响力的人警告说，与比特币的性能相比，可能会再下降15％。

In the end, historical evidence does not support a lasting ETH price rally, even if it bottoms out relative to the broader altcoin market capitalization.

最后，历史证据不支持持久的ETH价格集会，即使相对于更广泛的Altcoin市值降低了。