Bitwise 預測，以太坊 ETF 將爆發，目標是 18 個月內投資 15B 美元

Bitwise 首席投資長 Matt Hougan 表示，以太坊 ETF 市場將經歷爆炸性成長。

The market for Ethereum ETFs is poised for explosive growth, according to projections made by Matt Hougan, who serves as the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise. His analysis suggests that these new financial instruments could attract up to $15 billion in investments within 18 months of their launch. This estimation is arrived at after considering market potential and observed trends in the crypto sector.

根據 Bitwise 首席投資長 Matt Hougan 的預測，以太坊 ETF 市場將會爆炸性成長。他的分析表明，這些新的金融工具在推出後 18 個月內可吸引高達 150 億美元的投資。這項估計是在考慮市場潛力和觀察加密貨幣領域的趨勢後得出的。

The projections made by Bitwise indicate the increasing appeal of Ethereum as an institutional investment. Hougan anticipates that the Ether ETFs could comprise approximately 26% of the combined Bitcoin-Ethereum market.

Bitwise 的預測表明，以太坊作為機構投資的吸引力越來越大。 Hougan 預計以太坊 ETF 可能佔比特幣-以太坊合併市場的約 26%。

This significant share is attributed to the second-largest crypto's market capitalization, which currently stands at $432 billion, presenting a substantial potential for capital inflows.

這一重要份額歸因於第二大加密貨幣的市值，目前為 4,320 億美元，呈現出巨大的資本流入潛力。

The launch of Ethereum ETFs will have a significant advantage: the expected conversion of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust into an ETF, which will immediately bring in $10 billion in assets. This strong foundation could boost investor confidence and accelerate the adoption of these new financial products.

以太坊ETF的推出將有一個顯著的優勢：灰階以太坊信託有望轉換為ETF，這將立即帶來100億美元的資產。這個堅實的基礎可以增強投資者的信心並加速這些新金融產品的採用。

Projections Adjusted to Market Realities

根據市場現實調整預測

Despite the promising outlook, Hougan adopts a cautious approach in his estimates. He takes into account certain limiting factors, such as the slight underperformance of Ethereum ETPs compared to their absolute market capitalization weighting. This nuance led him to revise his initial expectations from $25 billion to $18 billion, excluding Grayscale trust assets.

儘管前景樂觀，但霍根在估計中採取了謹慎的態度。他考慮了某些限制因素，例如以太坊 ETP 的表現與其絕對市值權重相比略有不佳。這種細微差別導致他將最初的預期從 250 億美元修改為 180 億美元，不包括灰階信託資產。

Another element taken into consideration is the likely absence of “carry trade” for Ethereum ETFs, unlike what is observed with Bitcoin.

另一個需要考慮的因素是以太坊 ETF 可能不存在“套利交易”，這與比特幣的情況不同。

This particularity, notably due to the absence of staking for American Ethereum ETFs, led Hougan to further refine his projections, resulting in the final estimate of $15 billion in net inflows.

這種特殊性，尤其是由於美國以太坊 ETF 沒有質押，導致 Hougan 進一步完善了他的預測，最終估計淨流入為 150 億美元。

Bitwise's optimism comes in an increasingly favorable regulatory context. Recently, another major asset management player, VanEck, filed Form 8-A for its Ethereum ETF project, which signals increased confidence in the upcoming approval of these products by the SEC.

Bitwise 的樂觀態度來自日益有利的監管環境。最近，另一家主要資產管理公司 VanEck 為其以太坊 ETF 專案提交了 8-A 表，這表明人們對 SEC 即將批准這些產品的信心增強。