Bitwise 预测，以太坊 ETF 将爆发，目标是 18 个月内投资 15B 美元

Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 表示，以太坊 ETF 市场将经历爆炸性增长。

The market for Ethereum ETFs is poised for explosive growth, according to projections made by Matt Hougan, who serves as the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise. His analysis suggests that these new financial instruments could attract up to $15 billion in investments within 18 months of their launch. This estimation is arrived at after considering market potential and observed trends in the crypto sector.

根据 Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 的预测，以太坊 ETF 市场将出现爆炸性增长。他的分析表明，这些新的金融工具在推出后 18 个月内可以吸引高达 150 亿美元的投资。这一估计是在考虑市场潜力和观察加密货币领域的趋势后得出的。

The projections made by Bitwise indicate the increasing appeal of Ethereum as an institutional investment. Hougan anticipates that the Ether ETFs could comprise approximately 26% of the combined Bitcoin-Ethereum market.

Bitwise 的预测表明，以太坊作为机构投资的吸引力越来越大。 Hougan 预计以太坊 ETF 可能占比特币-以太坊合并市场的约 26%。

This significant share is attributed to the second-largest crypto's market capitalization, which currently stands at $432 billion, presenting a substantial potential for capital inflows.

这一重要份额归因于第二大加密货币的市值，目前为 4320 亿美元，呈现出巨大的资本流入潜力。

The launch of Ethereum ETFs will have a significant advantage: the expected conversion of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust into an ETF, which will immediately bring in $10 billion in assets. This strong foundation could boost investor confidence and accelerate the adoption of these new financial products.

以太坊ETF的推出将有一个显着的优势：灰度以太坊信托有望转换为ETF，这将立即带来100亿美元的资产。这一坚实的基础可以增强投资者的信心并加速这些新金融产品的采用。

Projections Adjusted to Market Realities

根据市场现实调整预测

Despite the promising outlook, Hougan adopts a cautious approach in his estimates. He takes into account certain limiting factors, such as the slight underperformance of Ethereum ETPs compared to their absolute market capitalization weighting. This nuance led him to revise his initial expectations from $25 billion to $18 billion, excluding Grayscale trust assets.

尽管前景乐观，但霍根在估计中采取了谨慎的态度。他考虑了某些限制因素，例如以太坊 ETP 的表现与其绝对市值权重相比略有不佳。这种细微差别导致他将最初的预期从 250 亿美元修改为 180 亿美元，不包括灰度信托资产。

Another element taken into consideration is the likely absence of “carry trade” for Ethereum ETFs, unlike what is observed with Bitcoin.

另一个需要考虑的因素是以太坊 ETF 可能不存在“套利交易”，这与比特币的情况不同。

This particularity, notably due to the absence of staking for American Ethereum ETFs, led Hougan to further refine his projections, resulting in the final estimate of $15 billion in net inflows.

这种特殊性，尤其是由于美国以太坊 ETF 没有质押，导致 Hougan 进一步完善了他的预测，最终估计净流入为 150 亿美元。

Bitwise's optimism comes in an increasingly favorable regulatory context. Recently, another major asset management player, VanEck, filed Form 8-A for its Ethereum ETF project, which signals increased confidence in the upcoming approval of these products by the SEC.

Bitwise 的乐观态度来自日益有利的监管环境。最近，另一家主要资产管理公司 VanEck 为其以太坊 ETF 项目提交了 8-A 表，这表明人们对 SEC 即将批准这些产品的信心增强。