以太坊以 BTC 計價的價格接近 9 年趨勢線支撐：技術分析

連接 2016 年和 2017 年低點的趨勢線自 1 月以來一直提供支撐。

output: Ether's BTC-Denominated Price Flirts With 9-Year-Long Trendline Support: Technical Analysis

產出：以 BTC 計價的以太幣價格觸及 9 年趨勢線支撐：技術分析

The trendline connecting 2016 and 2017 lows has offered support since January.

連接 2016 年和 2017 年低點的趨勢線自 1 月以來一直提供支撐。

Ether's (ETH) bitcoin (BTC)-denominated market price, the ETH/BTC ratio, is flirting with a bullish trendline drawn from 2016 and 2017 lows, offering hope to bulls on the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

以太幣(ETH) 和比特幣(BTC) 計價的市場價格，即ETH/BTC 比率，正在接近2016 年和2017 年低點繪製的看漲趨勢線，這給看漲者帶來了對市值第二大加密貨幣的希望。

Since January, the trendline has offered consistent lower price support to the pair in a pattern that is reminiscent of 2019-20. Back then, it served as an accumulation zone, eventually leading to a renewed bull market in the first half of 2021, a chart sourced from TradingView shows.

自 1 月以來，趨勢線為該貨幣對提供了持續較低的價格支撐，其模式讓人想起 2019-20 年。來自 TradingView 的圖表顯示，當時它是一個吸籌區，最終導致 2021 年上半年重新出現牛市。

A monthly chart of moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, an indicator used to gauge trend strength and changes, favors continued defense of and renewed upswing from the trendline. The histogram has produced shallower bars below the zero line since December 2023, indicating a downtrend exhaustion.

移動平均收斂散度（MACD）長條圖的月圖是一種用於衡量趨勢強度和變化的指標，有利於趨勢線的持續防禦和重新上行。自 2023 年 12 月以來，長條圖在零線下方產生了較淺的柱形，顯示下降趨勢已耗盡。

However, sophisticated traders don't see ether outperforming bitcoin in the coming months. That's evident in Deribit's options market, where ether call options, or bullish bets, expiring in six months trade at a 5.5% premium to put options, or bearish bets. A slightly higher call premium is seen in bitcoin options, indicating traders are being extra bullish on BTC, according to Amberdata.

然而，經驗豐富的交易者並不認為以太幣在未來幾個月的表現會優於比特幣。這在 Deribit 的選擇權市場中很明顯，六個月內到期的以太坊看漲期權（或看漲押注）的交易價格比看跌期權（或看跌押注）溢價 5.5%。 Amberdata 的數據顯示，比特幣選擇權的買權溢價略高，顯示交易者對 BTC 格外看好。

The continued bias for bitcoin stems from concerns that demand for ether spot ETFs, which debuted in the U.S. on Tuesday, will be weaker than for bitcoin ETFs and slowing network activity on ETH's parent blockchain, Ethereum.

對比特幣的持續偏見源於人們擔心週二在美國推出的以太坊現貨 ETF 的需求將弱於比特幣 ETF，以及 ETH 母區塊鏈以太坊上的網路活動放緩。

"Market has already priced in this news as ETHBTC price has been in downtrending range since announcement in May," Pankaj Balani, CEO and co-founder of Delta Exchange, said in an email. "The market is expecting lower inflows in ETH ETFs compared to inflows witnessed by BTC ETFs this year. ETH has underperformed BTC this year as gas fees in ETH L1 blockchain remained at yearly lows with activity shifting to ETH L2s and Solana."

Delta Exchange 執行長兼聯合創始人 Pankaj Balani 在一封電子郵件中表示：“市場已經消化了這一消息，因為 ETHBTC 價格自 5 月宣布以來一直處於下行區間。” 「與今年BTC ETF 的流入相比，市場預計ETH ETF 的流入量較低。今年ETH 的表現落後於BTC，因為ETH L1 區塊鏈的Gas 費仍處於年度低點，活動轉向ETH L2 和Solana。 」

Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.CoinDesk is an award-winning digital asset news platform that報導,彙編 cryptocurrency, blockchain technology and Web3 with a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk was acquired by Block, Inc. in April 2023. Both Block and CoinDesk are fully owned subsidiaries of Block, Inc.

Omkar Godbole 是 CoinDesk 市場團隊的共同總編輯。 CoinDesk 於 2023 年 4 月被 Block, Inc. 收購。