以太坊以 BTC 计价的价格接近 9 年趋势线支撑：技术分析

连接 2016 年和 2017 年低点的趋势线自 1 月份以来一直提供支撑。

output: Ether's BTC-Denominated Price Flirts With 9-Year-Long Trendline Support: Technical Analysis

产出：以 BTC 计价的以太币价格触及 9 年趋势线支撑：技术分析

The trendline connecting 2016 and 2017 lows has offered support since January.

连接 2016 年和 2017 年低点的趋势线自 1 月份以来一直提供支撑。

Ether's (ETH) bitcoin (BTC)-denominated market price, the ETH/BTC ratio, is flirting with a bullish trendline drawn from 2016 and 2017 lows, offering hope to bulls on the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

以太币 (ETH) 和比特币 (BTC) 计价的市场价格，即 ETH/BTC 比率，正在接近 2016 年和 2017 年低点绘制的看涨趋势线，这给看涨者带来了对市值第二大加密货币的希望。

Since January, the trendline has offered consistent lower price support to the pair in a pattern that is reminiscent of 2019-20. Back then, it served as an accumulation zone, eventually leading to a renewed bull market in the first half of 2021, a chart sourced from TradingView shows.

自 1 月以来，趋势线为该货币对提供了持续较低的价格支撑，其模式让人想起 2019-20 年。来自 TradingView 的图表显示，当时它是一个吸筹区，最终导致 2021 年上半年重新出现牛市。

A monthly chart of moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, an indicator used to gauge trend strength and changes, favors continued defense of and renewed upswing from the trendline. The histogram has produced shallower bars below the zero line since December 2023, indicating a downtrend exhaustion.

移动平均收敛散度（MACD）柱状图的月度图表是一种用于衡量趋势强度和变化的指标，有利于趋势线的持续防御和重新上行。自 2023 年 12 月以来，柱状图在零线下方产生了较浅的柱形，表明下降趋势已耗尽。

However, sophisticated traders don't see ether outperforming bitcoin in the coming months. That's evident in Deribit's options market, where ether call options, or bullish bets, expiring in six months trade at a 5.5% premium to put options, or bearish bets. A slightly higher call premium is seen in bitcoin options, indicating traders are being extra bullish on BTC, according to Amberdata.

然而，经验丰富的交易者并不认为以太币在未来几个月的表现会优于比特币。这在 Deribit 的期权市场中很明显，六个月内到期的以太坊看涨期权（或看涨押注）的交易价格比看跌期权（或看跌押注）溢价 5.5%。 Amberdata 的数据显示，比特币期权的看涨期权溢价略高，表明交易者对 BTC 格外看好。

The continued bias for bitcoin stems from concerns that demand for ether spot ETFs, which debuted in the U.S. on Tuesday, will be weaker than for bitcoin ETFs and slowing network activity on ETH's parent blockchain, Ethereum.

对比特币的持续偏见源于人们担心周二在美国推出的以太坊现货 ETF 的需求将弱于比特币 ETF，以及 ETH 母区块链以太坊上的网络活动放缓。

"Market has already priced in this news as ETHBTC price has been in downtrending range since announcement in May," Pankaj Balani, CEO and co-founder of Delta Exchange, said in an email. "The market is expecting lower inflows in ETH ETFs compared to inflows witnessed by BTC ETFs this year. ETH has underperformed BTC this year as gas fees in ETH L1 blockchain remained at yearly lows with activity shifting to ETH L2s and Solana."

Delta Exchange 首席执行官兼联合创始人 Pankaj Balani 在一封电子邮件中表示：“市场已经消化了这一消息，因为 ETHBTC 价格自 5 月份宣布以来一直处于下行区间。” “与今年 BTC ETF 的流入相比，市场预计 ETH ETF 的流入量较低。今年 ETH 的表现落后于 BTC，因为 ETH L1 区块链的 Gas 费仍处于年度低点，活动转向 ETH L2 和 Solana。”

Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.CoinDesk is an award-winning digital asset news platform that報導,彙編 cryptocurrency, blockchain technology and Web3 with a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk was acquired by Block, Inc. in April 2023. Both Block and CoinDesk are fully owned subsidiaries of Block, Inc.

Omkar Godbole 是 CoinDesk 市场团队的联合总编辑。CoinDesk 是一个屡获殊荣的数字资产新闻平台，以一套严格的编辑政策报道、加密货币、区块链技术和 Web3。 CoinDesk 于 2023 年 4 月被 Block, Inc. 收购。Block 和 CoinDesk 都是 Block, Inc. 的全资子公司。