分析師：ETH 可能會效仿 2016 年觀察到的看跌模式，但可能在 2025 年上半年大幅反彈

加密貨幣分析師本傑明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 警告稱，隨著 2024 年最後一個季度的臨近，以太坊 (ETH) 可能面臨看跌趨勢。

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has shared his thoughts on the potential upcoming trends for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) price movements.

加密貨幣分析師本傑明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）分享了他對比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）價格走勢未來潛在趨勢的看法。

According to Cowen, a bearish trend might be on the horizon for ETH as 2024's final quarter approaches. He observed that ETH may be mirroring a pattern from 2016, hinting at potential declines in the coming months. However, if this trend holds, Cowen anticipates a significant rebound for Ethereum in the first half of 2025.

Cowen 表示，隨著 2024 年最後一季的臨近，ETH 可能會出現看跌趨勢。他觀察到 ETH 可能反映出 2016 年的模式，暗示未來幾個月可能會下跌。然而，如果這一趨勢持續下去，Cowen 預計以太坊將在 2025 年上半年大幅反彈。

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,375, having seen a 3.3% decrease over the past day.

截至撰寫本文時，以太坊交易價格為 2,375 美元，較過去一天下跌 3.3%。

Cowen also noted that for Bitcoin to begin a rally, Tether’s market dominance (USDT.D) on the weekly chart must break below a key trend line. This shift would indicate that traders are using their stablecoins to acquire other cryptocurrencies. Historically, a declining USDT dominance has correlated with upward trends in Bitcoin’s price.

Cowen 也指出，比特幣要開始反彈，週線圖上 Tether 的市場主導地位（USDT.D）必須跌破關鍵趨勢線。這種轉變表明交易者正在使用他們的穩定幣來購買其他加密貨幣。從歷史上看，USDT 主導地位的下降與比特幣價格的上漲趨勢有關。

Moreover, Cowen shared his insights on the overall valuation of the crypto market, suggesting that the market might not reach its fair value until early next year. He referenced historical patterns, where previous cycles saw significant overvaluation occurring well after the halving events, indicating that a similar pattern could unfold this time around.

此外，Cowen 分享了他對加密貨幣市場整體估值的見解，表明市場可能要到明年初才能達到其公允價值。他引用了歷史模式，先前的周期在減半事件發生後不久就出現了嚴重高估，這表明這次可能會出現類似的模式。