分析师：ETH 可能会效仿 2016 年观察到的看跌模式，但可能在 2025 年上半年大幅反弹

加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 警告称，随着 2024 年最后一个季度的临近，以太坊 (ETH) 可能面临看跌趋势。

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has shared his thoughts on the potential upcoming trends for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) price movements.

加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 分享了他对比特币 (BTC) 和以太坊 (ETH) 价格走势未来潜在趋势的看法。

According to Cowen, a bearish trend might be on the horizon for ETH as 2024's final quarter approaches. He observed that ETH may be mirroring a pattern from 2016, hinting at potential declines in the coming months. However, if this trend holds, Cowen anticipates a significant rebound for Ethereum in the first half of 2025.

Cowen 表示，随着 2024 年最后一个季度的临近，ETH 可能会出现看跌趋势。他观察到 ETH 可能会反映出 2016 年的模式，暗示未来几个月可能会下跌。然而，如果这一趋势持续下去，Cowen 预计以太坊将在 2025 年上半年出现大幅反弹。

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,375, having seen a 3.3% decrease over the past day.

截至撰写本文时，以太坊交易价格为 2,375 美元，较过去一天下跌 3.3%。

Cowen also noted that for Bitcoin to begin a rally, Tether’s market dominance (USDT.D) on the weekly chart must break below a key trend line. This shift would indicate that traders are using their stablecoins to acquire other cryptocurrencies. Historically, a declining USDT dominance has correlated with upward trends in Bitcoin’s price.

Cowen 还指出，比特币要开始反弹，周线图上 Tether 的市场主导地位（USDT.D）必须跌破关键趋势线。这种转变表明交易者正在使用他们的稳定币来购买其他加密货币。从历史上看，USDT 主导地位的下降与比特币价格的上涨趋势相关。

Moreover, Cowen shared his insights on the overall valuation of the crypto market, suggesting that the market might not reach its fair value until early next year. He referenced historical patterns, where previous cycles saw significant overvaluation occurring well after the halving events, indicating that a similar pattern could unfold this time around.

此外，Cowen 分享了他对加密货币市场整体估值的见解，表明市场可能要到明年初才能达到其公允价值。他引用了历史模式，之前的周期在减半事件发生后不久就出现了严重高估，这表明这一次可能会出现类似的模式。