ETH ETF 將價格推至 ATH！

隨著現貨以太坊 ETF 在美國交易所首次亮相，花旗預計六個月內將出現大量資金流入，而分析師則預計以太坊將反彈至新的 ATH。

The much-anticipated spot Ethereum ETFs have finally made their debut on US exchanges, sparking anticipation of a substantial inflow volume and projections of an Ethereum rally to a new ATH.

備受期待的以太坊 ETF 現貨終於在美​​國交易所首次亮相，引發了對大量資金流入的預期以及以太坊反彈至新 ATH 的預測。

According to a recent CNBC report, Citi predicts that these ETFs could see inflows of up to $5.4 billion in the next six months. This significant amount underscores the growing interest in regulated crypto investment vehicles, especially following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs that witnessed inflows of around $17 billion within six months.

根據 CNBC 最近的報導，花旗預測未來六個月內這些 ETF 的資金流入可能高達 54 億美元。這筆巨額金額突顯了人們對受監管的加密貨​​幣投資工具日益增長的興趣，特別是在現貨比特幣 ETF 推出後，六個月內資金流入約 170 億美元。

Meanwhile, as institutional money begins to flow in, analysts are projecting ETH could reach the $5,000 mark this year. Amidst the debut of spot Ethereum ETFs, ETH trades around $3,450, down over 1% in the past 24 hours.

同時，隨著機構資金開始流入，分析師預計 ETH 今年可能達到 5,000 美元大關。在以太坊 ETF 現貨上市期間，ETH 交易價格約為 3,450 美元，過去 24 小時內下跌超過 1%。

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has stated that while the US spot Ether ETFs will have a rough start, they could have a bigger impact on the asset’s price than Bitcoin ETFs did for BTC.

Bitwise 首席投資長 Matt Hougan 表示，雖然美國現貨以太 ETF 開局不佳，但它們對資產價格的影響可能比比特幣 ETF 對 BTC 的影響更大。

“In our view, the launch of the US spot Ether ETFs will have a smaller impact on ether’s price, at least initially, than the approval of bitcoin futures ETFs had on bitcoin’s price,” Hougan stated.

Hougan 表示：“我們認為，美國現貨以太 ETF 的推出對以太價格的影響較小，至少在最初階段，比比特幣期貨 ETF 的批准對比特幣價格的影響要小。”

In a report, the Bitwise chief investment officer wrote that while the first few weeks could be choppy due to money flowing out of the $11 billion Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) as it converts to an ETF, by the year-end the new highs will be in. He added not to expect significant results immediately given the potential selling pressure similar to what spot Bitcoin faced on its launch.

Bitwise 首席投資長在一份報告中寫道，雖然由於 110 億美元的灰度以太坊信託 (ETHE) 轉換為 ETF 時資金流出，最初幾周可能會出現波動，但到年底，新高將他補充說，鑑於潛在的拋售壓力類似於比特幣推出時面臨的潛在拋售壓力，他預計不會立即出現重大結果。

“Don’t expect anything spectacular immediately, but by the year-end you’ll be looking at new all-time highs for ether,” Hougan added.

「不要指望立即會發生什麼驚人的事情，但到年底，你將看到以太坊的歷史新高，」Hougan 補充道。

Bitwise stated that the money flowing into new ether spot ETFs will have a larger impact than it did for Bitcoin for three structural reasons. Ether’s short-term inflation rate is 0% and when bitcoin versions launched the network’s inflation rate was 1.7%, so there is significant demand meeting zero supply. Unlike Bitcoin miners, ETH stakers don’t have to sell, and 28% of ETH is staked and therefore off the market.

Bitwise 表示，由於三個結構性原因，流入新以太坊現貨 ETF 的資金將比比特幣產生更大的影響。以太坊的短期通膨率為 0%，當比特幣版本推出時，網路的通膨率為 1.7%，因此存在大量需求滿足零供應。與比特幣礦工不同，ETH 質押者不必出售，並且 28% 的 ETH 被質押，因此不在市場上。

Ether spot ETFs are expected to garner $15 billion of net inflows in their first 18 months of trading, the report added.

報告補充稱，預計以太坊現貨 ETF 在交易的前 18 個月內將獲得 150 億美元的淨流入。

While Hougan is optimistic about Ethereum reaching $5,000 and beyond by the year’s end, futures traders are betting on a near-term decline in Ethereum’s price.

雖然 Hougan 對以太坊在年底前達到 5,000 美元及以上持樂觀態度，但期貨交易員押注以太坊價格近期會下跌。

Moreover, the SEC’s position on not allowing staking Ether within ETFs poses a potential headwind for adoption. Historically, approvals reportedly relied on the jurisdictional hook of futures trading, which, according to CNBC, Ethereum and Bitcoin lack.

此外，美國證券交易委員會不允許在 ETF 中質押以太幣的立場對採用以太幣構成了潛在的阻力。據報道，從歷史上看，批准依賴於期貨交易的管轄權，而根據 CNBC 報道，以太坊和比特幣缺乏這一點。