ETH ETF 将价格推至 ATH！

随着现货以太坊 ETF 在美国交易所首次亮相，花旗预计六个月内将出现大量资金流入，而分析师则预计以太坊将反弹至新的 ATH。

The much-anticipated spot Ethereum ETFs have finally made their debut on US exchanges, sparking anticipation of a substantial inflow volume and projections of an Ethereum rally to a new ATH.

备受期待的以太坊 ETF 现货终于在美国交易所首次亮相，引发了对大量资金流入的预期以及以太坊反弹至新 ATH 的预测。

According to a recent CNBC report, Citi predicts that these ETFs could see inflows of up to $5.4 billion in the next six months. This significant amount underscores the growing interest in regulated crypto investment vehicles, especially following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs that witnessed inflows of around $17 billion within six months.

根据 CNBC 最近的报道，花旗预测未来六个月内这些 ETF 的资金流入可能高达 54 亿美元。这一巨额金额突显了人们对受监管的加密货币投资工具日益增长的兴趣，特别是在现货比特币 ETF 推出后，六个月内资金流入约 170 亿美元。

Meanwhile, as institutional money begins to flow in, analysts are projecting ETH could reach the $5,000 mark this year. Amidst the debut of spot Ethereum ETFs, ETH trades around $3,450, down over 1% in the past 24 hours.

与此同时，随着机构资金开始流入，分析师预计 ETH 今年可能会达到 5,000 美元大关。在以太坊 ETF 现货上市期间，ETH 交易价格约为 3,450 美元，过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1%。

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has stated that while the US spot Ether ETFs will have a rough start, they could have a bigger impact on the asset’s price than Bitcoin ETFs did for BTC.

Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 表示，虽然美国现货以太 ETF 开局不佳，但它们对资产价格的影响可能比比特币 ETF 对 BTC 的影响更大。

“In our view, the launch of the US spot Ether ETFs will have a smaller impact on ether’s price, at least initially, than the approval of bitcoin futures ETFs had on bitcoin’s price,” Hougan stated.

Hougan 表示：“我们认为，美国现货以太 ETF 的推出对以太价格的影响较小，至少在最初阶段，比比特币期货 ETF 的批准对比特币价格的影响要小。”

In a report, the Bitwise chief investment officer wrote that while the first few weeks could be choppy due to money flowing out of the $11 billion Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) as it converts to an ETF, by the year-end the new highs will be in. He added not to expect significant results immediately given the potential selling pressure similar to what spot Bitcoin faced on its launch.

Bitwise 首席投资官在一份报告中写道，虽然由于 110 亿美元的灰度以太坊信托 (ETHE) 转换为 ETF 时资金流出，最初几周可能会出现波动，但到年底，新高将他补充说，鉴于潜在的抛售压力类似于比特币推出时面临的潜在抛售压力，他预计不会立即出现重大结果。

“Don’t expect anything spectacular immediately, but by the year-end you’ll be looking at new all-time highs for ether,” Hougan added.

“不要指望立即出现任何惊人的事情，但到年底，您将看到以太币创下新的历史高点，”Hougan 补充道。

Bitwise stated that the money flowing into new ether spot ETFs will have a larger impact than it did for Bitcoin for three structural reasons. Ether’s short-term inflation rate is 0% and when bitcoin versions launched the network’s inflation rate was 1.7%, so there is significant demand meeting zero supply. Unlike Bitcoin miners, ETH stakers don’t have to sell, and 28% of ETH is staked and therefore off the market.

Bitwise 表示，由于三个结构性原因，流入新以太坊现货 ETF 的资金将比比特币产生更大的影响。以太币的短期通胀率为 0%，当比特币版本推出时，网络的通胀率为 1.7%，因此存在大量需求满足零供应。与比特币矿工不同，ETH 质押者不必出售，并且 28% 的 ETH 被质押，因此不在市场上。

Ether spot ETFs are expected to garner $15 billion of net inflows in their first 18 months of trading, the report added.

报告补充称，预计以太坊现货 ETF 在交易的前 18 个月内将获得 150 亿美元的净流入。

While Hougan is optimistic about Ethereum reaching $5,000 and beyond by the year’s end, futures traders are betting on a near-term decline in Ethereum’s price.

虽然 Hougan 对以太坊在年底前达到 5,000 美元及以上持乐观态度，但期货交易员押注以太坊价格近期会下跌。

Moreover, the SEC’s position on not allowing staking Ether within ETFs poses a potential headwind for adoption. Historically, approvals reportedly relied on the jurisdictional hook of futures trading, which, according to CNBC, Ethereum and Bitcoin lack.

此外，美国证券交易委员会不允许在 ETF 中质押以太币的立场对采用以太币构成了潜在的阻力。据报道，从历史上看，批准依赖于期货交易的管辖权，而据 CNBC 报道，以太坊和比特币缺乏这一点。