埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）的總督工作隊可能是Dogecoin下一次崩潰的催化劑

到目前為止，到2025年，股票市場一直是一個混合的袋子。標準普爾500指數，納斯達克復合材料和道瓊斯工業平均平均水平都比平常的波動率更高。

So far in 2025, the stock market has been a mixed bag. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have all exhibited higher than usual levels of volatility. Between mixed economic data and ongoing tariff negotiations with trade partners, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the equity markets.

到目前為止，到2025年，股票市場一直是一個混合的袋子。標準普爾500指數，納斯達克復合材料和道瓊斯工業平均平均水平都比平常的波動率更高。在混合經濟數據和與貿易夥伴進行的持續關稅談判之間，股票市場周圍存在很多不確定性。

During times like these, it's not unusual for investors to sell their stocks and redeploy capital into alternatives such as commodities, real estate, or even cryptocurrency. Over the last year, one cryptocurrency that has seen quite a bit of action is Dogecoin (DOGE -4.30%).

在這樣的時期，投資者將其股票和重新部門重新部門出售為商品，房地產甚至加密貨幣等替代品並不罕見。在過去的一年中，有很多動作的加密貨幣是Dogecoin（Doge -4.30％）。

While Dogecoin's momentum can be tempting to follow, I think its price could be headed to new lows sooner rather than later. Let's explore Dogecoin's price action over the last several months and try to uncover what's been driving interest in this specific cryptocurrency. From there, I'll detail why I think Dogecoin could be headed for a precipitous sell-off.

雖然Dogecoin的勢頭可能會很容易遵循，但我認為它的價格可能會更早而不是較晚。讓我們探索過去幾個月來Dogecoin的價格行動，並試圖發現對這種特定加密貨幣的興趣。從那裡開始，我將詳細介紹為什麼我認為Dogecoin可能會出現艱鉅的拋售。

Taking a closer look at the Dogecoin roller coaster

仔細觀察Dogecoin過山車

The chart below illustrates Dogecoin's price action over the last 12 months. Although its price is up 37% over the last year, recent trends clearly show that Dogecoin is trading well below prior highs.

下圖說明了Dogecoin在過去12個月中的價格行動。儘管其價格比去年增長了37％，但最近的趨勢清楚地表明，Dogecoin的交易遠低於先前的高點。

Dogecoin Price data by YCharts

YCHARTS的Dogecoin價格數據

What may have caused the rapid ascent and descent of Dogecoin

是什麼可能導致狗狗幣的快速上升和下降

Does anything stick out to you as it relates to the timing of Dogecoin's rise and its more recent sell-off?

與Dodecoin崛起的時機及其最近的拋售有關的時機是否有任何興趣？

Per the graph above, Dogecoin experienced an unprecedented rally in November. But why? In my opinion, I think Dogecoin's parabolic rise was correlated with the outcome of the presidential election.

根據上圖，Dogecoin在11月經歷了前所未有的集會。但為什麼？我認為，我認為Dogecoin的拋物線上升與總統大選的結果相關。

Following Donald Trump's reelection in November, he created a new task force called the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Moreover, Tesla CEO Elon Musk was nominated to lead this initiative.

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）於11月連任後，他成立了一個名為政府效率部（DOGE）的新工作組。此外，特斯拉首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）被提名為這項倡議。

In years past, Musk has demonstrated some support for Dogecoin -- albeit in joking and facetious ways (like referring to himself as "The Dogefather" on an episode of Saturday Night Live). Nevertheless, it's my thinking that some investors began creating a narrative that the acronym for the Department of Government Efficiency, coupled with Musk's involvement, would somehow result in an endorsement for Dogecoin. In some ways, I can understand how an investor would connect these dots.

在過去的幾年中，馬斯克（Musk）對Dogecoin表示了一些支持 - 儘管在開玩笑和方面的方式（例如在《星期六夜現場》的一集中稱自己為“ Dogefather”）。儘管如此，我認為一些投資者開始創造一種敘述，即政府效率部的首字母縮寫，再加上馬斯克的參與，以某種方式會導致對Dogecoin的認可。在某些方面，我可以理解投資者將如何連接這些點。

However, in truly ironic fashion, I think Dogecoin's sell-off in recent months also revolves around Musk.

但是，以具有諷刺意味的方式，我認為Dogecoin最近幾個月的拋售也圍繞著馬斯克旋轉。

During an interview a couple of months ago, Musk explained that the U.S. government does not have any plans to use Dogecoin.

在幾個月前的一次採訪中，馬斯克解釋說，美國政府沒有任何使用Dogecoin的計劃。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

Is Dogecoin a buy right now?

Dogecoin現在是購買嗎？

If you think about the big picture, most (if not all) of Dogecoin's price action over the last year has been rooted in narratives as opposed to any fundamental truths. Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, Dogecoin doesn't have much in the way of utility. It is a meme coin and shouldn't be taken too seriously.

如果您考慮一下大局，那麼去年的大多數（如果不是全部）Dogecoin的價格行動就植根於敘事中，而不是任何基本真理。與比特幣或以太坊不同，Dogecoin的實用性不大。這是一個模因硬幣，不應該太認真。

While it's entirely possible it could experience a rally here and there, historical trends suggest these rises are often fleeting. As a long-term investor, I'm not interested in getting caught up in a momentum trade and being left holding the bag.

雖然完全有可能在這里和那裡經歷集會，但歷史趨勢表明這些升起通常是短暫的。作為一名長期投資者，我對陷入勢頭交易並持有袋子的行為不感興趣。

With Musk telling investors that his time at DOGE will reduce significantly over the coming months, I think the narrative that Dogecoin will somehow benefit from him leading DOGE's efforts will fade. Given its high degree of speculation and Musk throwing water on the idea that the government may leverage Dogecoin in some capacity, my prediction is that Dogecoin will lose whatever support it has left and crater to new lows by the end of the year.

馬斯克告訴投資者，他在門衛的時間將在接下來的幾個月中大大減少，我認為Dogecoin將以某種方式受益於他帶領Doge的努力的敘述將消失。鑑於其高度的猜測和麝香扔水，即政府可以以某種身份利用狗狗幣的想法，我的預測是，狗狗幣將失去其剩下的任何支持，並在今年年底之前遍及新的低點。

For these reasons, I would pass on Dogecoin and avoid investing in the cryptocurrency.

由於這些原因，我會傳遞Dogecoin並避免投資加密貨幣。