戲劇性的供應緊縮正在重塑比特幣市場

隨著每日公司收購遠遠超過採礦業務，專家警告說，迫在眉睫的失衡可能會重新定義比特幣的角色

A dramatic supply crunch is reshaping the Bitcoin market as institutional investors ramp up purchases, hoarding millions of coins and drying up available liquidity.

隨著機構投資者在增加購買，ho積數百萬硬幣並枯竭可用的流動性時，急劇的供應緊縮正在重塑比特幣市場。

With daily corporate acquisitions far outpacing mining output, experts warn of a looming imbalance that could redefine Bitcoin's role from a volatile asset to a strategic reserve. New forecasts predict trillions of dollars in institutional inflows, while long-term holders and governments show no intention of selling.

隨著每日公司的收購遠遠超過採礦產量，專家警告說，迫在眉睫的失衡可能會將比特幣的作用從波動性的資產重新定義為戰略儲備。新的預測預測機構流入數万億美元，而長期持有人和政府無意出售。

As centralized exchanges run dry and regulation looms, Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the brink of a structural transformation—one that could permanently limit access to the world's leading cryptocurrency.

由於集中式交換乾燥和調節織機，比特幣（BTC）可能位於結構轉化的邊緣 - 一種可以永久限制進入世界領先的加密貨幣的訪問。

2,000 bitcoins a day?

每天有2,000個比特幣？

Bitcoin treasury company Strategy buys over 2,000 bitcoins on average daily, while miners produce only 450 units per day. The real gap is much higher as more institutions join the Bitcoin race.

比特幣財政公司的策略平均每天購買2,000多個比特幣，而礦工每天僅生產450輛。隨著越來越多的機構加入比特幣比賽，真正的差距要高得多。

How this impacts the future of Bitcoin remains to be seen, but a new report by UTXO provides insight into what lies ahead.

這如何影響比特幣的未來還有待觀察，但是UTXO的一份新報告提供了對未來情況的見解。

According to the report, by the end of 2025, institutions will invest $130 billion in Bitcoin, and in 2026, this amount will increase to $300 billion. In total, institutions will purchase 4.2 million bitcoins by 2026, which is 20% of Bitcoin's total supply (if we don't take millions of lost bitcoins into consideration).

根據該報告，到2025年底，機構將向比特幣投資1300億美元，在2026年，這筆款項將增加到3000億美元。到2026年，機構總共將購買420萬比特幣，這是比特幣總供應量的20％（如果我們不考慮數百萬損失的比特幣）。

According to the Bitcoin Treasuries website, as of May 2025, 3.35 million bitcoins were held in corporate, state, and various other treasuries. Only nearly 800,000 bitcoins are held on corporate balance sheets now.

根據比特幣國債網站的數據，截至2025年5月，在公司，州和其他各種國庫中舉行了335萬比特幣。現在，公司資產負債表上只有近80萬比特幣。

How is Bitcoin getting sold off from the circulation?

比特幣如何從循環中賣出？

According to Strategy chair Michael Saylor, the company is not going to sell any of its bitcoins.

據戰略主席邁克爾·賽勒（Michael Saylor）稱，該公司不會出售其任何比特幣。

Assuming Strategy and other entities copying its playbook won't be selling bitcoins, then we should acknowledge that Bitcoin's supply is shrinking at an ever-increasing speed.

假設策略和其他復制劇本的實體不會出售比特幣，那麼我們應該承認比特幣的供應正在以不斷增長的速度縮小。

As governments, along with private and public companies, continue to buy bitcoins without the intention of selling, more coins will disappear from circulation at an ever-growing speed.

由於政府與私人和上市公司一起繼續購買比特幣而無意出售，因此更多的硬幣將以不斷增長的速度從發行中消失。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju claims that Bitcoin's annual deflation rate is -2.23% thanks to Strategy's activity. In the first third of 2025, corporations purchased 196,000 BTC while the mined amount is only around 60,044 BTC. The amount acquired by long-term holding companies already outperformed the entire amount of bitcoins projected to be mined in 2025 (164,250 BTC).

CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju聲稱，由於戰略的活動，比特幣的年度縮水率為-2.23％。在2025年的前三分之一中，公司購買了196,000 BTC，而開採金額僅為60,044 BTC。長期控股公司獲得的金額已經超過了預計將在2025年開采的全部比特幣數量（164,250 BTC）。

As the new Bitcoin treasuries continue to occur (Nakamoto and 21 Capital are the latest high-profile launches), Bitcoin will increasingly lose liquid supply. The market situation may drastically change.

隨著新的比特幣國庫繼續發生（Nakamoto和21 Capital是最新的備受矚目的發射），比特幣將越來越失去液體供應。市場狀況可能會發生巨大變化。

According to the UTXO forecast, 2026 may see less volatility, increased transparency or reserves, and a change of Bitcoin's role from a seized asset to a strategic reserve asset. Bitcoin-based decentralized finance ("BTCfi") platforms will allegedly get bigger. The new era may see drastically lower circulation of Bitcoin.

根據UTXO的預測，2026年的波動性較小，透明度或儲備金的提高以及比特幣從查獲資產變為戰略儲備資產的角色變化。據稱，基於比特幣的分散融資（“ BTCFI”）平台將變得更大。新時代可能會看到比特幣的循環大幅下降。

This year may also bring new legislation that will impact the cryptocurrency market. At least two U.S. bills may seriously impact the Bitcoin sector: the Bitcoin Reserve Act, which suggests that the U.S. should purchase Bitcoin, and the Genius Act, which aims to regulate stablecoins, making it easier for institutions to enter the crypto markets.

今年還可能帶來新的立法，將影響加密貨幣市場。至少有兩項美國法案可能會嚴重影響比特幣行業：《比特幣儲備法》，該法案表明美國應該購買比特幣，而《天才法》旨在調節穩定的穩定性，使機構更容易進入加密貨幣市場。

Furthermore, if they are adopted, various bills that establish state-level Bitcoin reserves may boost BTC purchasing as well.

此外，如果採用它們，建立州級比特幣儲量的各種法案也可能會增加BTC的購買。

Coins will be locked up faster than expected

硬幣將被鎖定的速度比預期的快

Centralized exchanges are running out of Bitcoin. In April 2025, its supply on exchanges was the lowest since November 2018. Throughout 2025, exchanges lost 21% of BTC stored on their balances.

集中式交流用盡了比特幣。 2025年4月，其交流供應是自2018年11月以來的最低水平。在2025年，交易所損失了21％的BTC存儲在餘額上。

Traders move their bitcoins to wallets and don’t seem to be eager to sell them. As of May 2025, nearly two-thirds of Bitcoin addresses have been motionless, at least since the beginning of the year.

貿易商將他們的比特幣轉移到錢包上，似乎並不渴望出售它們。截至2025年5月，至少從今年年初開始，將近三分之二的比特幣地址一直一動不動。

While many expect that institutional investors buying millions of bitcoins will push the BTC price up, not everyone believes so.

儘管許多人期望購買數百萬比特幣的機構投資者將推高BTC價格，但並非所有人都相信。

Investor and trader Willy Woo doesn’t think that an institutional buy influx may drive the BTC price.

投資者和商人威利·沃（Willy Woo）認為，機構購買湧入可能會推動BTC價格。

He explains that institutional investors buying large amounts of Bitcoin offset risks through parallel respective short sells.

他解釋說，機構投資者通過平行的短賣出購買了大量比特幣抵消風險。

High demand, shrinking supply

需求旺盛，供應量

Matt Hougan, a CIO of Bitwise, predicts Bitcoin's price may reach $200,000 in 2025.

Bitwise的CIO Matt Hougan預測，比特幣的價格可能在2025年達到200,000美元。

He says the gap between increasing demand and shrinking supply will also eliminate the four-year cycles with their several-fold ups and 90%

他說，需求增加和供應量增加之間的差距也將消除四年的周期，其幾倍UPS和90％