戏剧性的供应紧缩正在重塑比特币市场

随着每日公司收购远远超过采矿业务，专家警告说，迫在眉睫的失衡可能会重新定义比特币的角色

A dramatic supply crunch is reshaping the Bitcoin market as institutional investors ramp up purchases, hoarding millions of coins and drying up available liquidity.

随着机构投资者在增加购买，ho积数百万硬币并枯竭可用的流动性时，急剧的供应紧缩正在重塑比特币市场。

With daily corporate acquisitions far outpacing mining output, experts warn of a looming imbalance that could redefine Bitcoin's role from a volatile asset to a strategic reserve. New forecasts predict trillions of dollars in institutional inflows, while long-term holders and governments show no intention of selling.

随着每日公司的收购远远超过采矿产量，专家警告说，迫在眉睫的失衡可能会将比特币的作用从波动性的资产重新定义为战略储备。新的预测预测机构流入数万亿美元，而长期持有人和政府无意出售。

As centralized exchanges run dry and regulation looms, Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the brink of a structural transformation—one that could permanently limit access to the world's leading cryptocurrency.

由于集中式交换干燥和调节织机，比特币（BTC）可能位于结构转化的边缘 - 一种可以永久限制进入世界领先的加密货币的访问。

2,000 bitcoins a day?

每天有2,000个比特币？

Bitcoin treasury company Strategy buys over 2,000 bitcoins on average daily, while miners produce only 450 units per day. The real gap is much higher as more institutions join the Bitcoin race.

比特币财政公司的策略平均每天购买2,000多个比特币，而矿工每天仅生产450辆。随着越来越多的机构加入比特币比赛，真正的差距要高得多。

How this impacts the future of Bitcoin remains to be seen, but a new report by UTXO provides insight into what lies ahead.

这如何影响比特币的未来还有待观察，但是UTXO的一份新报告提供了对未来情况的见解。

According to the report, by the end of 2025, institutions will invest $130 billion in Bitcoin, and in 2026, this amount will increase to $300 billion. In total, institutions will purchase 4.2 million bitcoins by 2026, which is 20% of Bitcoin's total supply (if we don't take millions of lost bitcoins into consideration).

根据该报告，到2025年底，机构将向比特币投资1300亿美元，在2026年，这笔款项将增加到3000亿美元。到2026年，机构总共将购买420万比特币，这是比特币总供应量的20％（如果我们不考虑数百万损失的比特币）。

According to the Bitcoin Treasuries website, as of May 2025, 3.35 million bitcoins were held in corporate, state, and various other treasuries. Only nearly 800,000 bitcoins are held on corporate balance sheets now.

根据比特币国债网站的数据，截至2025年5月，在公司，州和其他各种国库中举行了335万比特币。现在，公司资产负债表上只有近80万比特币。

How is Bitcoin getting sold off from the circulation?

比特币如何从循环中卖出？

According to Strategy chair Michael Saylor, the company is not going to sell any of its bitcoins.

据战略主席迈克尔·赛勒（Michael Saylor）称，该公司不会出售其任何比特币。

Assuming Strategy and other entities copying its playbook won't be selling bitcoins, then we should acknowledge that Bitcoin's supply is shrinking at an ever-increasing speed.

假设策略和其他复制剧本的实体不会出售比特币，那么我们应该承认比特币的供应正在以不断增长的速度缩小。

As governments, along with private and public companies, continue to buy bitcoins without the intention of selling, more coins will disappear from circulation at an ever-growing speed.

由于政府与私人和上市公司一起继续购买比特币而无意出售，因此更多的硬币将以不断增长的速度从发行中消失。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju claims that Bitcoin's annual deflation rate is -2.23% thanks to Strategy's activity. In the first third of 2025, corporations purchased 196,000 BTC while the mined amount is only around 60,044 BTC. The amount acquired by long-term holding companies already outperformed the entire amount of bitcoins projected to be mined in 2025 (164,250 BTC).

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju声称，由于战略的活动，比特币的年度缩水率为-2.23％。在2025年的前三分之一中，公司购买了196,000 BTC，而开采金额仅为60,044 BTC。长期控股公司获得的金额已经超过了预计将在2025年开采的全部比特币数量（164,250 BTC）。

As the new Bitcoin treasuries continue to occur (Nakamoto and 21 Capital are the latest high-profile launches), Bitcoin will increasingly lose liquid supply. The market situation may drastically change.

随着新的比特币国库继续发生（Nakamoto和21 Capital是最新的备受瞩目的发射），比特币将越来越失去液体供应。市场状况可能会发生巨大变化。

According to the UTXO forecast, 2026 may see less volatility, increased transparency or reserves, and a change of Bitcoin's role from a seized asset to a strategic reserve asset. Bitcoin-based decentralized finance ("BTCfi") platforms will allegedly get bigger. The new era may see drastically lower circulation of Bitcoin.

根据UTXO的预测，2026年的波动性较小，透明度或储备金的提高以及比特币从查获资产变为战略储备资产的角色变化。据称，基于比特币的分散融资（“ BTCFI”）平台将变得更大。新时代可能会看到比特币的循环大幅下降。

This year may also bring new legislation that will impact the cryptocurrency market. At least two U.S. bills may seriously impact the Bitcoin sector: the Bitcoin Reserve Act, which suggests that the U.S. should purchase Bitcoin, and the Genius Act, which aims to regulate stablecoins, making it easier for institutions to enter the crypto markets.

今年还可能带来新的立法，将影响加密货币市场。至少有两项美国法案可能会严重影响比特币行业：《比特币储备法》，该法案表明美国应该购买比特币，而《天才法》旨在调节稳定的稳定性，使机构更容易进入加密货币市场。

Furthermore, if they are adopted, various bills that establish state-level Bitcoin reserves may boost BTC purchasing as well.

此外，如果采用它们，建立州级比特币储量的各种法案也可能会增加BTC的购买。

Coins will be locked up faster than expected

硬币将被锁定的速度比预期的快

Centralized exchanges are running out of Bitcoin. In April 2025, its supply on exchanges was the lowest since November 2018. Throughout 2025, exchanges lost 21% of BTC stored on their balances.

集中式交流用尽了比特币。 2025年4月，其交流供应是自2018年11月以来的最低水平。在2025年，交易所损失了21％的BTC存储在余额上。

Traders move their bitcoins to wallets and don’t seem to be eager to sell them. As of May 2025, nearly two-thirds of Bitcoin addresses have been motionless, at least since the beginning of the year.

贸易商将他们的比特币转移到钱包上，似乎并不渴望出售它们。截至2025年5月，至少从今年年初开始，将近三分之二的比特币地址一直一动不动。

While many expect that institutional investors buying millions of bitcoins will push the BTC price up, not everyone believes so.

尽管许多人期望购买数百万比特币的机构投资者将推高BTC价格，但并非所有人都相信。

Investor and trader Willy Woo doesn’t think that an institutional buy influx may drive the BTC price.

投资者和商人威利·沃（Willy Woo）认为，机构购买涌入可能会推动BTC价格。

He explains that institutional investors buying large amounts of Bitcoin offset risks through parallel respective short sells.

他解释说，机构投资者通过平行的短卖出购买了大量比特币抵消风险。

High demand, shrinking supply

需求旺盛，供应量

Matt Hougan, a CIO of Bitwise, predicts Bitcoin's price may reach $200,000 in 2025.

Bitwise的CIO Matt Hougan预测，比特币的价格可能在2025年达到200,000美元。

He says the gap between increasing demand and shrinking supply will also eliminate the four-year cycles with their several-fold ups and 90%

他说，需求增加和供应量增加之间的差距也将消除四年的周期，其几倍UPS和90％