解碼BTC的波動：阻止學者並將差異放在一個狂野的加密世界中

通過塊學者的見解深入研究BTC波動率的世界，探索差異和市場情緒轉變。比特幣準備下一個大舉動嗎？

Decoding BTC Volatility: Block Scholes and Put Spreads in a Wild Crypto World

解碼BTC的波動：阻止學者並將差異放在一個狂野的加密世界中

Bitcoin's been a rollercoaster, right? This article unpacks the latest on BTC volatility, looking at how Block Scholes models and put spreads are helping traders navigate the choppy waters. Are we heading for calm seas or another wild ride?

比特幣一直是過山車，對嗎？本文解開了有關BTC波動率的最新信息，研究了Block Scholes模型和PROT差異如何幫助交易者駕駛波濤洶湧的水域。我們要前往平靜的海洋或另一個狂野的旅程嗎？

Volatility's Wild Ride: A Bybit X Block Scholes Deep Dive

波動率的狂野騎行：bybit x塊Scholes深入潛水

According to the latest Bybit X Block Scholes Options Volatility Report (Sept. 26, 2025), realized volatility for Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana hit some seriously low points in early September. I'm talking historic lows! This happened even with all the macro stuff and shifts in monetary policy putting pressure on global markets. It's like the crypto world was trying to zen out while everything else was going nuts.

根據最新的Bybit X Block Scholes選項波動率報告（2025年9月26日），實現了比特幣，以太和Solana的波動性，在9月初，比特幣，以太和索拉納（Solana）在一些嚴重的低點中遇到了一些嚴重的低點。我說的是歷史悠久的低點！即使所有的宏觀事物和貨幣政策的轉變也會給全球市場施加壓力。就像加密世界在其他一切都發瘋時試圖禪意。

Key Takeaways:

關鍵要點：

• Realized Volatility Plummets: BTC's seven-day realized volatility dipped to 20%, way below its 2025 average.
• Implied Volatility Stays High: Even with the calm, implied volatility remained elevated, suggesting people are still buying insurance against potential chaos.

Bearish Bitcoin? Skew's the Story

看跌比特幣？歪曲的故事

Remember when Bitcoin hit $124,000 back on August 14? Good times. But then inflation data came in hotter than expected, and the market did a 180. The options market reacted, and Bitcoin's 90-day skew turned negative for only the third time that year. What does this mean? Basically, everyone was scrambling for downside protection. This bearish skew stuck around through September, while Ether (ETH) went the other way, flipping bullish on out-of-the-money calls. Talk about a split personality!

還記得比特幣在8月14日的$ 124,000時嗎？好時光。但是隨後通貨膨脹數據比預期的要高，市場做出了180個。期權市場做出了反應，比特幣的90天偏斜僅在當年第三次變成負面。這是什麼意思？基本上，每個人都爭先恐後地尋求下行保護。這種看跌的偏斜一直持續到9月，而Ether（Eth）則走了另一種方式，在不利的電話中翻轉看漲。談論分裂個性！

Market Index and Volatility Drop

市場指數和波動率下降

The Weekly Market Index noted a drop in price, volume, and volatility, with volatility decreasing by -13.84% last week. Tokens showed mixed price actions, coinciding with the Fed Chair's remarks on divided opinions regarding additional rate cuts for 2025, creating more market uncertainty. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s at-the-market (ATM) implied volatility fell close to 1-year lows for the 1-week and 1-month durations and fell to 2-year lows for the longer tenors (3-month and 6-month), potentially suggesting expectations of smaller price swings and a relatively stable market for BTC.

每週市場指數指出，價格，數量和波動性下降，上週波動率下降了-13.84％。代幣表現出不同的價格行動，與美聯儲主席對2025年額外降低稅率的分歧意見相吻合，從而造成了更多的市場不確定性。此外，比特幣在1周和1個月的持續時間內，比特幣的上市（ATM）隱含波動率接近1年的低點，對於更長的男高音（3個月和6個月）下降了2年的低點，有可能暗示對BTC的價格較小的價格以及相對穩定的市場的期望。

My Two Satoshis

我的兩個satoshis

Here's my take: While the numbers paint a picture of subdued volatility, don't get lulled into a false sense of security. The crypto market is anything but predictable. The fact that implied volatility remains high tells me smart money is still hedging against potential downturns. Plus, with global economic factors constantly in flux, anything could happen.

這是我的看法：雖然數字描繪了一幅柔和的波動性圖片，但不要陷入錯誤的安全感。加密市場是可以預見的。隱含的波動性仍然很高的事實告訴我，聰明的錢仍在對抗潛在的低迷。另外，隨著全球經濟因素不斷變化，任何事情都可能發生。

Navigating with Put Spreads

用pot醬導航

So, how do you play this? One strategy is using put spreads. By buying and selling put options at different strike prices, you can protect your downside while limiting your potential profit. It's like buying a limited insurance policy – you're covered up to a certain point, but you won't get rich if the market crashes.

那麼，您如何玩？一種策略是使用PUT點差。通過以不同的打擊價格購買和銷售PROT選項，您可以保護自己的下行方面，同時限制潛在利潤。這就像購買有限的保險單一樣 - 您要掩蓋了一定的一點，但是如果市場崩潰，您不會致富。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up, Buttercup!

最終想法：扣緊，毛cup！

The crypto market is never boring, is it? Whether you're a seasoned trader or just dipping your toes in the water, understanding volatility, using tools like the Block Scholes model, and considering strategies like put spreads can help you navigate the ups and downs. Keep your eyes peeled, stay informed, and remember to only invest what you can afford to lose. After all, in the world of crypto, anything can happen!

加密市場永遠不會無聊，是嗎？無論您是經驗豐富的交易者，還是僅將腳趾浸入水中，了解波動率，使用諸如Block Scholes模型之類的工具以及考慮諸如PUT差異之類的策略都可以幫助您導航起伏。保持眼睛剝落，保持了解，並記住只投資您可以負擔得起的損失。畢竟，在加密貨幣世界中，任何事情都可能發生！