解码BTC的波动：阻止学者并将差异放在一个狂野的加密世界中

通过块学者的见解深入研究BTC波动率的世界，探索差异和市场情绪转变。比特币准备下一个大举动吗？

Decoding BTC Volatility: Block Scholes and Put Spreads in a Wild Crypto World

解码BTC的波动：阻止学者并将差异放在一个狂野的加密世界中

Bitcoin's been a rollercoaster, right? This article unpacks the latest on BTC volatility, looking at how Block Scholes models and put spreads are helping traders navigate the choppy waters. Are we heading for calm seas or another wild ride?

比特币一直是过山车，对吗？本文解开了有关BTC波动率的最新信息，研究了Block Scholes模型和PROT差异如何帮助交易者驾驶波涛汹涌的水域。我们要前往平静的海洋或另一个狂野的旅程吗？

Volatility's Wild Ride: A Bybit X Block Scholes Deep Dive

波动率的狂野骑行：bybit x块Scholes深入潜水

According to the latest Bybit X Block Scholes Options Volatility Report (Sept. 26, 2025), realized volatility for Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana hit some seriously low points in early September. I'm talking historic lows! This happened even with all the macro stuff and shifts in monetary policy putting pressure on global markets. It's like the crypto world was trying to zen out while everything else was going nuts.

根据最新的Bybit X Block Scholes选项波动率报告（2025年9月26日），实现了比特币，以太和Solana的波动性，在9月初，比特币，以太和索拉纳（Solana）在一些严重的低点中遇到了一些严重的低点。我说的是历史悠久的低点！即使所有的宏观事物和货币政策的转变也会给全球市场施加压力。就像加密世界在其他一切都发疯时试图禅意。

Key Takeaways:

关键要点：

• Realized Volatility Plummets: BTC's seven-day realized volatility dipped to 20%, way below its 2025 average.
• Implied Volatility Stays High: Even with the calm, implied volatility remained elevated, suggesting people are still buying insurance against potential chaos.

Bearish Bitcoin? Skew's the Story

看跌比特币？歪曲的故事

Remember when Bitcoin hit $124,000 back on August 14? Good times. But then inflation data came in hotter than expected, and the market did a 180. The options market reacted, and Bitcoin's 90-day skew turned negative for only the third time that year. What does this mean? Basically, everyone was scrambling for downside protection. This bearish skew stuck around through September, while Ether (ETH) went the other way, flipping bullish on out-of-the-money calls. Talk about a split personality!

还记得比特币在8月14日的$ 124,000时吗？好时光。但是随后通货膨胀数据比预期的要高，市场做出了180个。期权市场做出了反应，比特币的90天偏斜仅在当年第三次变成负面。这是什么意思？基本上，每个人都争先恐后地寻求下行保护。这种看跌的偏斜一直持续到9月，而Ether（Eth）则走了另一种方式，在不利的电话中翻转看涨。谈论分裂个性！

Market Index and Volatility Drop

市场指数和波动率下降

The Weekly Market Index noted a drop in price, volume, and volatility, with volatility decreasing by -13.84% last week. Tokens showed mixed price actions, coinciding with the Fed Chair's remarks on divided opinions regarding additional rate cuts for 2025, creating more market uncertainty. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s at-the-market (ATM) implied volatility fell close to 1-year lows for the 1-week and 1-month durations and fell to 2-year lows for the longer tenors (3-month and 6-month), potentially suggesting expectations of smaller price swings and a relatively stable market for BTC.

每周市场指数指出，价格，数量和波动性下降，上周波动率下降了-13.84％。代币表现出不同的价格行动，与美联储主席对2025年额外降低税率的分歧意见相吻合，从而造成了更多的市场不确定性。此外，比特币在1周和1个月的持续时间内，比特币的上市（ATM）隐含波动率接近1年的低点，对于更长的男高音（3个月和6个月）下降了2年的低点，有可能暗示对BTC的价格较小的价格以及相对稳定的市场的期望。

My Two Satoshis

我的两个satoshis

Here's my take: While the numbers paint a picture of subdued volatility, don't get lulled into a false sense of security. The crypto market is anything but predictable. The fact that implied volatility remains high tells me smart money is still hedging against potential downturns. Plus, with global economic factors constantly in flux, anything could happen.

这是我的看法：虽然数字描绘了一幅柔和的波动性图片，但不要陷入错误的安全感。加密市场是可以预见的。隐含的波动性仍然很高的事实告诉我，聪明的钱仍在对抗潜在的低迷。另外，随着全球经济因素不断变化，任何事情都可能发生。

Navigating with Put Spreads

用pot酱导航

So, how do you play this? One strategy is using put spreads. By buying and selling put options at different strike prices, you can protect your downside while limiting your potential profit. It's like buying a limited insurance policy – you're covered up to a certain point, but you won't get rich if the market crashes.

那么，您如何玩？一种策略是使用PUT点差。通过以不同的打击价格购买和销售PROT选项，您可以保护自己的下行方面，同时限制潜在利润。这就像购买有限的保险单一样 - 您要掩盖了一定的一点，但是如果市场崩溃，您不会致富。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up, Buttercup!

最终想法：扣紧，毛cup！

The crypto market is never boring, is it? Whether you're a seasoned trader or just dipping your toes in the water, understanding volatility, using tools like the Block Scholes model, and considering strategies like put spreads can help you navigate the ups and downs. Keep your eyes peeled, stay informed, and remember to only invest what you can afford to lose. After all, in the world of crypto, anything can happen!

加密市场永远不会无聊，是吗？无论您是经验丰富的交易者，还是仅将脚趾浸入水中，了解波动率，使用诸如Block Scholes模型之类的工具以及考虑诸如PUT差异之类的策略都可以帮助您导航起伏。保持眼睛剥落，保持了解，并记住只投资您可以负担得起的损失。毕竟，在加密货币世界中，任何事情都可能发生！