數據驅動的分析揭示了比特幣即將第四次減半的動態

隨著比特幣接近第四次減半，數據驅動的分析揭示了有趣的見解。值得注意的是，比特幣的剩餘供應量正在減少，只有 130 萬枚比特幣尚未開採。正如Google搜尋所證明的那樣，人們對減半的興趣達到了歷史新高。此外，貝萊德最近推出的比特幣 ETF 表明機構興趣日益濃厚。此外，比特幣序數的出現也引起了人們的興奮，減半後開採的第一枚比特幣預計將獲得可觀的溢價。然而，比特幣價格的短期前景仍不確定，市場情緒顯示今年達到 10 萬美元的可能性較低。

Bitcoin's Fourth Halving: A Data-Driven Exploration

比特幣第四次減半：數據驅動的探索

As Bitcoin approaches its fourth halving, the markets and sentiments surrounding this pivotal event have undergone a significant transformation compared to previous halvings, shaping the landscape for this rare occurrence.

隨著比特幣第四次減半，圍繞這一關鍵事件的市場和情緒與先前的減半相比發生了重大轉變，塑造了這一罕見事件的格局。

1. Bitcoin's Diminishing Supply

1. 比特幣供應減少

Bitcoin's structure ensures that its total supply is finite, with a vast majority already in circulation. Post-halving, only 1.3 million BTC remain to be mined, extending the finite supply until 2140. The daily issuance rate will decrease to 450 BTC, resulting in a mere 657,000 BTC entering the market between now and 2028, creating a potential supply shock.

比特幣的結構確保其總供應量是有限的，其中絕大多數已經在流通。減半後，只剩下130 萬個BTC 可供開採，有限的供應量將延長至2140 年。潛在的供應衝擊。

2. Soaring Google Searches for "Bitcoin Halving"

2.「比特幣減半」的Google搜尋量飆升

The upcoming halving has sparked an unprecedented surge in internet searches for "Bitcoin halving." Data from Google Trends reveals a record number of users seeking information about the event, with Nigeria, Netherlands, Switzerland, Cyprus, and Slovenia leading the interest.

即將到來的減半引發了「比特幣減半」的網路搜尋量空前激增。谷歌趨勢的數據顯示，尋求有關該活動資訊的用戶數量創下歷史新高，其中尼日利亞、荷蘭、瑞士、塞浦路斯和斯洛維尼亞的興趣最為濃厚。

3. BlackRock's Bullish Outlook

3.貝萊德的看漲前景

BlackRock, the world's largest asset management firm, recently launched an exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on Bitcoin's spot price, providing institutional investors with exposure to the halving without directly holding the digital asset. BlackRock executive Jay Jacobs emphasizes the ETF's unprecedented growth, underscoring the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin and its halving event.

全球最大的資產管理公司貝萊德最近推出了一款基於比特幣現貨價格的交易所交易基金（ETF），為機構投資者提供了無需直接持有數位資產即可獲得減半風險的投資機會。貝萊德高層 Jay Jacobs 強調了 ETF 前所未有的成長，強調了機構對比特幣及其減半事件日益增長的興趣。

Jacobs acknowledges halvings as crucial to Bitcoin's value proposition, highlighting historical data that suggests strong returns in the calendar year following a halving. However, the 2020 halving presented an exception, with BTC gains exceeding the subsequent year's growth. Nonetheless, the current bull run's duration remains uncertain, despite BTC reaching a new all-time high prior to the halving.

雅各布斯承認減半對比特幣的價值主張至關重要，並強調歷史數據顯示減半後的日曆年將出現強勁回報。然而，2020 年的減半卻是個例外，比特幣的漲幅超過了隨後一年的漲幅。儘管如此，儘管比特幣在減半前達到了歷史新高，但當前牛市的持續時間仍不確定。

4. The Rise of Bitcoin Ordinals

4. 比特幣序數的興起

Bitcoin Ordinals, a recent innovation, enable non-fungible tokens (NFTs) to be inscribed on individual satoshis, the smallest unit of Bitcoin. Demand for Ordinals has skyrocketed, surpassing the combined sales volumes of Ethereum and Solana.

比特幣序數是最近的創新，它使不可替代代幣（NFT）能夠被刻在單一聰（比特幣的最小單位）上。對 Ordinals 的需求激增，超過了以太坊和 Solana 的銷售總和。

The sat mined immediately after the halving holds particular significance, as it will be one of only four such sats in existence. Its rarity is expected to confer significant value, potentially exceeding the reduction in block rewards.

減半後立即開採的衛星具有特殊意義，因為它將是現存的僅有的四個此類衛星之一。其稀有性預計將帶來巨大的價值，可能超過區塊獎勵的減少。

5. Uncertain Short-Term Outlook

5. 短期前景不確定

While Bitcoin price predictions abound, betting markets provide a window into market sentiment. Polymarket data indicates a 46% probability of BTC reaching $100,000 this year, with sentiment declining in recent weeks. Only 11% believe it will reach $250,000 by year-end. As the halving approaches, a recent dip in BTC's price has led 17% of bettors to anticipate it falling below $60,000 on the day of the halving.

儘管比特幣價格預測比比皆是，但博彩市場提供了一個了解市場情緒的窗口。 Polymarket 數據顯示，今年 BTC 達到 10 萬美元的可能性為 46%，但最近幾週情緒有所下降。只有 11% 的人相信到年底將達到 25 萬美元。隨著減半臨近，比特幣價格最近下跌，導致 17% 的投注者預計比特幣價格在減半當天將跌破 6 萬美元。

In conclusion, Bitcoin's fourth halving stands as a unique and pivotal event, influenced by evolving market dynamics, growing institutional interest, and the emergence of innovative technologies like Bitcoin Ordinals. While the short-term outlook remains uncertain, the halving's implications for Bitcoin's long-term value proposition and the ecosystem's growth warrant close attention from investors, enthusiasts, and observers alike.

總之，比特幣的第四次減半是一個獨特且關鍵的事件，受到不斷變化的市場動態、不斷增長的機構興趣以及比特幣序數等創新技術的出現的影響。儘管短期前景仍不確定，但減半對比特幣長期價值主張和生態系統成長的影響值得投資者、愛好者和觀察家的密切關注。