数据驱动的分析揭示了比特币即将第四次减半的动态

随着比特币接近第四次减半，数据驱动的分析揭示了有趣的见解。值得注意的是，比特币的剩余供应量正在减少，只有 130 万枚比特币尚未开采。正如谷歌搜索所证明的那样，人们对减半的兴趣达到了历史新高。此外，贝莱德最近推出的比特币 ETF 表明机构兴趣日益浓厚。此外，比特币序数的出现也引起了人们的兴奋，减半后开采的第一枚比特币预计将获得可观的溢价。然而，比特币价格的短期前景仍然不确定，市场情绪表明今年达到 10 万美元的可能性较低。

Bitcoin's Fourth Halving: A Data-Driven Exploration

比特币第四次减半：数据驱动的探索

As Bitcoin approaches its fourth halving, the markets and sentiments surrounding this pivotal event have undergone a significant transformation compared to previous halvings, shaping the landscape for this rare occurrence.

随着比特币第四次减半，围绕这一关键事件的市场和情绪与之前的减半相比发生了重大转变，塑造了这一罕见事件的格局。

1. Bitcoin's Diminishing Supply

1. 比特币供应减少

Bitcoin's structure ensures that its total supply is finite, with a vast majority already in circulation. Post-halving, only 1.3 million BTC remain to be mined, extending the finite supply until 2140. The daily issuance rate will decrease to 450 BTC, resulting in a mere 657,000 BTC entering the market between now and 2028, creating a potential supply shock.

比特币的结构确保其总供应量是有限的，其中绝大多数已经在流通。减半后，只剩下 130 万个 BTC 可供开采，有限的供应量将延长至 2140 年。每日发行量将降至 450 个 BTC，导致从现在到 2028 年只有 657,000 个 BTC 进入市场，造成潜在的供应冲击。

2. Soaring Google Searches for "Bitcoin Halving"

2.“比特币减半”的谷歌搜索量飙升

The upcoming halving has sparked an unprecedented surge in internet searches for "Bitcoin halving." Data from Google Trends reveals a record number of users seeking information about the event, with Nigeria, Netherlands, Switzerland, Cyprus, and Slovenia leading the interest.

即将到来的减半引发了“比特币减半”的互联网搜索量空前激增。谷歌趋势的数据显示，寻求有关该活动信息的用户数量创下历史新高，其中尼日利亚、荷​​兰、瑞士、塞浦路斯和斯洛文尼亚的兴趣最为浓厚。

3. BlackRock's Bullish Outlook

3.贝莱德的看涨前景

BlackRock, the world's largest asset management firm, recently launched an exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on Bitcoin's spot price, providing institutional investors with exposure to the halving without directly holding the digital asset. BlackRock executive Jay Jacobs emphasizes the ETF's unprecedented growth, underscoring the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin and its halving event.

全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德最近推出了一款基于比特币现货价格的交易所交易基金（ETF），为机构投资者提供了无需直接持有数字资产即可获得减半风险的投资机会。贝莱德高管 Jay Jacobs 强调了 ETF 前所未有的增长，强调了机构对比特币及其减半事件日益增长的兴趣。

Jacobs acknowledges halvings as crucial to Bitcoin's value proposition, highlighting historical data that suggests strong returns in the calendar year following a halving. However, the 2020 halving presented an exception, with BTC gains exceeding the subsequent year's growth. Nonetheless, the current bull run's duration remains uncertain, despite BTC reaching a new all-time high prior to the halving.

雅各布斯承认减半对比特币的价值主张至关重要，并强调历史数据表明减半后的日历年将出现强劲回报。然而，2020 年的减半却是一个例外，比特币的涨幅超过了随后一年的涨幅。尽管如此，尽管比特币在减半前达到了历史新高，但当前牛市的持续时间仍不确定。

4. The Rise of Bitcoin Ordinals

4. 比特币序数的兴起

Bitcoin Ordinals, a recent innovation, enable non-fungible tokens (NFTs) to be inscribed on individual satoshis, the smallest unit of Bitcoin. Demand for Ordinals has skyrocketed, surpassing the combined sales volumes of Ethereum and Solana.

比特币序数是最近的一项创新，它使不可替代代币（NFT）能够被刻在单个聪（比特币的最小单位）上。对 Ordinals 的需求猛增，超过了以太坊和 Solana 的销量总和。

The sat mined immediately after the halving holds particular significance, as it will be one of only four such sats in existence. Its rarity is expected to confer significant value, potentially exceeding the reduction in block rewards.

减半后立即开采的卫星具有特殊意义，因为它将是现存的仅有的四个此类卫星之一。其稀有性预计将带来巨大的价值，可能超过区块奖励的减少。

5. Uncertain Short-Term Outlook

5. 短期前景不确定

While Bitcoin price predictions abound, betting markets provide a window into market sentiment. Polymarket data indicates a 46% probability of BTC reaching $100,000 this year, with sentiment declining in recent weeks. Only 11% believe it will reach $250,000 by year-end. As the halving approaches, a recent dip in BTC's price has led 17% of bettors to anticipate it falling below $60,000 on the day of the halving.

尽管比特币价格预测比比皆是，但博彩市场提供了了解市场情绪的窗口。 Polymarket 数据显示，今年 BTC 达到 10 万美元的可能性为 46%，但最近几周情绪有所下降。只有 11% 的人相信到年底将达到 25 万美元。随着减半临近，比特币价格最近下跌，导致 17% 的投注者预计比特币价格在减半当天将跌破 60,000 美元。

In conclusion, Bitcoin's fourth halving stands as a unique and pivotal event, influenced by evolving market dynamics, growing institutional interest, and the emergence of innovative technologies like Bitcoin Ordinals. While the short-term outlook remains uncertain, the halving's implications for Bitcoin's long-term value proposition and the ecosystem's growth warrant close attention from investors, enthusiasts, and observers alike.

总之，比特币的第四次减半是一个独特且关键的事件，受到不断变化的市场动态、不断增长的机构兴趣以及比特币序数等创新技术的出现的影响。尽管短期前景仍不确定，但减半对比特币长期价值主张和生态系统增长的影响值得投资者、爱好者和观察人士的密切关注。