丹·莫爾黑德（Dan Morehead）預測2025年共識的比特幣上漲空間

Pantera Capital的首席執行官Dan Morehead在多倫多共識2025年對比特幣的未來分享了看漲的觀點。

At Consensus 2025 in Toronto, Dan Morehead, the founder and CEO of Pantera Capital, offered a bullish prediction for Bitcoin, rolling through macroeconomic factors that he sees boding well for crypto.

Pantera Capital的創始人兼首席執行官Dan Morehead在2025年的共識2025上提供了對比特幣的看漲預測，他認為宏觀經濟因素對Crypto來說很好。

Morehead said that “there are a couple more decades to go of outsized returns in Bitcoin,” rolling through the firm’s performance stats—which saw its Bitcoin Fund achieve over 132,118% returns since inception in 2013—and highlighting the firm’s long-term strategy of investing broadly in a wide spectrum of tokens and venture equity.

莫爾黑德（Morehead）說：“比特幣中有超大回報的數十年來，”瀏覽了公司的績效統計數據 - 自2013年成立以來，其比特幣基金獲得了超過132,118％的回報，並強調了該公司在代理和企業Equity廣泛投資的長期投資。

His confidence in the top coin’s potential to continue rallying stems from its ability to capture a larger share of the global financial market, especially as more institutional players enter the scene. He noted that despite this progress, Bitcoin still has untapped potential.

他對頂級硬幣繼續集會的潛力的信心源於其占據全球金融市場佔有更大份額的能力，尤其是隨著越來越多的機構參與者進入現場。他指出，儘管取得了這種進展，比特幣仍然沒有開發的潛力。

“It feels like we’re still very early in terms of the potential for Bitcoin to grow,” Morehead said.

莫爾黑德說：“就比特幣增長的潛力而言，我們仍然很早。”

He added that the decentralized nature of Bitcoin and its fixed supply make it a resilient asset in an era of economic uncertainty.

他補充說，比特幣的分散性質及其固定供應使其成為經濟不確定性時代的彈性資產。

Persistent inflation and trade tensions make the economy more uncertain, which could propel Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value, especially as traditional currencies face pressure from rising inflation rates, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 2.8% in the U.S. in April 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

持續的通貨膨脹和貿易緊張局勢使經濟更加不確定，這可能會推動比特幣作為價值的吸引力，尤其是當傳統貨幣面臨上升的通貨膨脹率所面臨的壓力，而消費者價格指數（CPI）在2025年4月在美國的2.8％達到2.8％。

Moreover, the European Central Bank’s decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in April 2025, setting the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, the main refinancing operations rate to 2.40%, and the marginal lending facility rate to 2.65%, reflects a response to stagflation concerns and aims to stimulate economic growth.

此外，歐洲中央銀行在2025年4月將利率降低25個基點的決定，將存款設施的利率降低到2.25％，主要的再融資運營利率為2.40％，而邊際貸款設施的利率則降至2.65％，反映了對販運的響應，並旨在刺激經濟增長。

These developments suggest a scenario where Bitcoin BTC might benefit from a flight to quality, as investors seek assets less susceptible to central bank policies.

這些事態發展表明，隨著投資者尋求對中央銀行政策不太容易受到影響的資產，比特幣BTC可能會受益於質量。

Bitcoin is not just a speculative asset but a critical component of a diversified investment strategy in an era of economic flux.

比特幣不僅是投機性的資產，而且是經濟不斷變化時代多元化投資策略的關鍵組成部分。

Bitcoin’s Recent Correlation with Gold

比特幣最近與黃金的相關性

Recently, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to rise alongside gold prices in the context of trade war risks. This correlation is driven by both assets being perceived as safe havens during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. However, with recent developments where gold prices have dropped due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions and relaxed tariff policies, the dynamics have shifted.

最近，在貿易戰風險的背景下，比特幣顯示出與黃金價格同在的趨勢。在地緣政治不確定性期間，這兩個資產都被視為安全避風港的驅動。但是，隨著最近的發展，由於緩解美中國貿易緊張局勢和輕鬆的關稅政策，黃金價格下跌了，動態發生了變化。

The relaxation of trade policies, particularly between the U.S. and China, has reduced the immediate risk premium on gold, leading to a decline in its value. This shift is significant because it highlights the differing responses of Bitcoin and gold to macroeconomic news.

放鬆貿易政策，特別是美國之間的貿易政策，已降低了黃金的直接風險溢價，導致其價值下降。這種轉變很重要，因為它突出了比特幣和黃金對宏觀經濟新聞的不同反應。

In April, Bitcoin joined the gold run, increasing correlation for the first time in months.

4月，比特幣加入了黃金運行，幾個月來首次增加了相關性。

Between April 7th and April 21st, gold surged +15% along with +12% in Bitcoin.

在4月7日至4月21日之間，黃金飆升 +15％，比特幣中 +12％。

The flight to decentralized and inflation-protected assets is strong.

去中心化和以通貨膨脹保護的資產的飛行很強。

Keep watching this trend.The Kobeissi Letter

繼續觀察這種趨勢。

While gold’s value is often tied to traditional safe-haven demand and central bank policies, Bitcoin’s price movements are increasingly influenced by its growing acceptance as a digital asset and its decoupling from traditional financial instruments.

儘管黃金的價值通常與傳統的避風勢需求和中央銀行的政策相關，但比特幣的價格變動越來越受到其作為數字資產的接受以及與傳統金融工具的脫鉤的影響。

This divergence becomes more apparent as macroeconomic indicators like inflation and interest rates come into play. In a scenario where traditional safe havens are adjusting to reduced trade tensions and the implications for the global economy are unfolding, Bitcoin might continue to gain momentum due to its unique characteristics.

隨著宏觀經濟指標（如通貨膨脹和利率）發揮作用，這種差異變得更加明顯。在傳統的避風港正在適應減少貿易緊張局勢以及對全球經濟的影響的情況下，由於其獨特的特徵，比特幣可能會繼續增長動力。

Moreover, the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” gains traction in such scenarios, as it offers a decentralized alternative that is less affected by geopolitical negotiations. This evolving relationship suggests that Bitcoin’s price momentum might be sustained by its unique position in the financial ecosystem, even as traditional safe havens like gold adjust to changing economic conditions.

此外，在這種情況下，比特幣作為“數字黃金”的敘述獲得了吸引力，因為它提供了一種分散的替代方案，該替代方案不太受地緣政治談判的影響。這種不斷發展的關係表明，即使像黃金這樣的傳統安全避風港適應不斷變化的經濟狀況，比特幣的價格勢頭可能會受到其在金融生態系統中的獨特地位的維持。