丹·莫尔黑德（Dan Morehead）预测2025年共识的比特币上涨空间

Pantera Capital的首席执行官Dan Morehead在多伦多共识2025年对比特币的未来分享了看涨的观点。

At Consensus 2025 in Toronto, Dan Morehead, the founder and CEO of Pantera Capital, offered a bullish prediction for Bitcoin, rolling through macroeconomic factors that he sees boding well for crypto.

Pantera Capital的创始人兼首席执行官Dan Morehead在2025年的共识2025上提供了对比特币的看涨预测，他认为宏观经济因素对Crypto来说很好。

Morehead said that “there are a couple more decades to go of outsized returns in Bitcoin,” rolling through the firm’s performance stats—which saw its Bitcoin Fund achieve over 132,118% returns since inception in 2013—and highlighting the firm’s long-term strategy of investing broadly in a wide spectrum of tokens and venture equity.

莫尔黑德（Morehead）说：“比特币中有超大回报的数十年来，”浏览了公司的绩效统计数据 - 自2013年成立以来，其比特币基金获得了超过132,118％的回报，并强调了该公司在代理和企业Equity广泛投资的长期投资。

His confidence in the top coin’s potential to continue rallying stems from its ability to capture a larger share of the global financial market, especially as more institutional players enter the scene. He noted that despite this progress, Bitcoin still has untapped potential.

他对顶级硬币继续集会的潜力的信心源于其占据全球金融市场占有更大份额的能力，尤其是随着越来越多的机构参与者进入现场。他指出，尽管取得了这种进展，比特币仍然没有开发的潜力。

“It feels like we’re still very early in terms of the potential for Bitcoin to grow,” Morehead said.

莫尔黑德说：“就比特币增长的潜力而言，我们仍然很早。”

He added that the decentralized nature of Bitcoin and its fixed supply make it a resilient asset in an era of economic uncertainty.

他补充说，比特币的分散性质及其固定供应使其成为经济不确定性时代的弹性资产。

Persistent inflation and trade tensions make the economy more uncertain, which could propel Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value, especially as traditional currencies face pressure from rising inflation rates, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 2.8% in the U.S. in April 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

持续的通货膨胀和贸易紧张局势使经济更加不确定，这可能会推动比特币作为价值的吸引力，尤其是当传统货币面临上升的通货膨胀率所面临的压力，而消费者价格指数（CPI）在2025年4月在美国的2.8％达到2.8％。

Moreover, the European Central Bank’s decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in April 2025, setting the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, the main refinancing operations rate to 2.40%, and the marginal lending facility rate to 2.65%, reflects a response to stagflation concerns and aims to stimulate economic growth.

此外，欧洲中央银行在2025年4月将利率降低25个基点的决定，将存款设施的利率降低到2.25％，主要的再融资运营利率为2.40％，而边际贷款设施的利率则降至2.65％，反映了对贩运的响应，并旨在刺激经济增长。

These developments suggest a scenario where Bitcoin BTC might benefit from a flight to quality, as investors seek assets less susceptible to central bank policies.

这些事态发展表明，随着投资者寻求对中央银行政策不太容易受到影响的资产，比特币BTC可能会受益于质量。

Bitcoin is not just a speculative asset but a critical component of a diversified investment strategy in an era of economic flux.

比特币不仅是投机性的资产，而且是经济不断变化时代多元化投资策略的关键组成部分。

Bitcoin’s Recent Correlation with Gold

比特币最近与黄金的相关性

Recently, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to rise alongside gold prices in the context of trade war risks. This correlation is driven by both assets being perceived as safe havens during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. However, with recent developments where gold prices have dropped due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions and relaxed tariff policies, the dynamics have shifted.

最近，在贸易战风险的背景下，比特币显示出与黄金价格同在的趋势。在地缘政治不确定性期间，这两个资产都被视为安全避风港的驱动。但是，随着最近的发展，由于缓解美中国贸易紧张局势和轻松的关税政策，黄金价格下跌了，动态发生了变化。

The relaxation of trade policies, particularly between the U.S. and China, has reduced the immediate risk premium on gold, leading to a decline in its value. This shift is significant because it highlights the differing responses of Bitcoin and gold to macroeconomic news.

放松贸易政策，特别是美国之间的贸易政策，已降低了黄金的直接风险溢价，导致其价值下降。这种转变很重要，因为它突出了比特币和黄金对宏观经济新闻的不同反应。

In April, Bitcoin joined the gold run, increasing correlation for the first time in months.

4月，比特币加入了黄金运行，几个月来首次增加了相关性。

Between April 7th and April 21st, gold surged +15% along with +12% in Bitcoin.

在4月7日至4月21日之间，黄金飙升 +15％，比特币中 +12％。

The flight to decentralized and inflation-protected assets is strong.

去中心化和以通货膨胀保护的资产的飞行很强。

Keep watching this trend.The Kobeissi Letter

继续观察这种趋势。

While gold’s value is often tied to traditional safe-haven demand and central bank policies, Bitcoin’s price movements are increasingly influenced by its growing acceptance as a digital asset and its decoupling from traditional financial instruments.

尽管黄金的价值通常与传统的避风势需求和中央银行的政策相关，但比特币的价格变动越来越受到其作为数字资产的接受以及与传统金融工具的脱钩的影响。

This divergence becomes more apparent as macroeconomic indicators like inflation and interest rates come into play. In a scenario where traditional safe havens are adjusting to reduced trade tensions and the implications for the global economy are unfolding, Bitcoin might continue to gain momentum due to its unique characteristics.

随着宏观经济指标（如通货膨胀和利率）发挥作用，这种差异变得更加明显。在传统的避风港正在适应减少贸易紧张局势以及对全球经济的影响的情况下，由于其独特的特征，比特币可能会继续增长动力。

Moreover, the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” gains traction in such scenarios, as it offers a decentralized alternative that is less affected by geopolitical negotiations. This evolving relationship suggests that Bitcoin’s price momentum might be sustained by its unique position in the financial ecosystem, even as traditional safe havens like gold adjust to changing economic conditions.

此外，在这种情况下，比特币作为“数字黄金”的叙述获得了吸引力，因为它提供了一种分散的替代方案，该替代方案不太受地缘政治谈判的影响。这种不断发展的关系表明，即使像黄金这样的传统安全避风港适应不断变化的经济状况，比特币的价格势头可能会受到其在金融生态系统中的独特地位的维持。