2024 年需要避免的 3 種加密貨幣和 1 種值得購買的加密貨幣

傳統觀點認為，大多數加密貨幣往往會在加密貨幣多頭反彈中走高，直到達到新的歷史高點。

Most cryptocurrencies do tend to rise higher in a crypto bull market rally until they reach new all-time highs. But if there's anything I've learned in covering crypto for the past several years, it's that past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and this is especially true for cryptos.

大多數加密貨幣確實傾向於在加密貨幣牛市反彈中走高，直到達到新的歷史高點。但如果說我過去幾年在加密貨幣方面學到了什麼的話，那就是過去的表現並不能保證未來的表現，對於加密貨幣來說尤其如此。

If you want to maximize the performance of your crypto portfolio, you'll need to know which cryptos to avoid and which ones to buy hand over fist. With that in mind, here are my top suggestions.

如果您想最大限度地提高加密貨幣投資組合的效能，您需要知道要避免哪些加密貨幣以及要立即購買哪些加密貨幣。考慮到這一點，以下是我的首要建議。

Cardano

卡爾達諾

While Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) is still a top 10 crypto on the basis of its whopping $15.5 billion market cap, it continues to lose ground to other cryptocurrencies. At the end of May, for example, meme coin Shiba Inu briefly surpassed Cardano in terms of market cap. If there's any crypto that has an annoying habit of trading flat for months at a time, it's Cardano. Investors keep waiting for a huge Cardano breakout rally past the $1 mark, but nothing ever seems to materialize.

儘管卡爾達諾（CRYPTO：ADA）以其高達 155 億美元的市值仍然是排名前十的加密貨幣，但它繼續輸給其他加密貨幣。例如，5 月底，迷因幣 Shiba Inu 的市值一度超過了卡爾達諾。如果說有哪個加密貨幣有連續幾個月持平的惱人習慣，那就是卡爾達諾。投資者一直在等待卡爾達諾大幅突破 1 美元大關，但似乎一切都沒有實現。

Unfortunately, the situation has not improved in 2024. Cardano is now down 27% for the year, and I'm struggling to find a potential near-term catalyst that might send this crypto higher. And trust me, I've tried. At first, I thought it might be decentralized finance (DeFi) and Cardano's embrace of smart contracts. And then I thought it might be artificial intelligence (AI), and Cardano's potential ability to attract high-profile AI crypto tokens to its blockchain.

不幸的是，情況在 2024 年並沒有改善。相信我，我已經嘗試過了。起初，我認為可能是去中心化金融（DeFi）和卡爾達諾對智能合約的擁抱。然後我認為這可能是人工智慧（AI），以及卡爾達諾吸引高調人工智慧加密代幣到其區塊鏈的潛在能力。

But in both cases, I've been proven wrong, and now I won't touch Cardano with a 10-foot pole. Sorry, Cardano. It's not you, it's me.

但在這兩種情況下，我都被證明是錯的，現在我不會用 10 英尺長的桿子去碰卡爾達諾。對不起，卡爾達諾。不是你而是我。

Litecoin

萊特幣

Litecoin (CRYPTO: LTC) is another cryptocurrency that I'm actively avoiding these days. And that's really a shame, because Litecoin has a long track record that goes back almost as far as Bitcoin's. In fact, Litecoin was created with nearly the same source code as Bitcoin, and was designed by a former Google engineer to be a lighter, faster version of Bitcoin (hence the term "lite" in its name).

萊特幣（CRYPTO：LTC）是我最近正在積極避免的另一種加密貨幣。這確實是一種恥辱，因為萊特幣有著悠久的歷史記錄，幾乎可以追溯到比特幣。事實上，萊特幣是使用與比特幣幾乎相同的源代碼創建的，並且是由前谷歌工程師設計的，是比特幣的更輕、更快的版本（因此名稱中稱為“lite”）。

Unfortunately, it seems like every potential Litecoin catalyst in recent memory has been underwhelming. For example, Litecoin, just like Bitcoin, has a much-anticipated halving every four years. The halving cycles of these two cryptos are off by one year, and Litecoin actually had its halving last year.

不幸的是，最近記憶中的每一個潛在的萊特幣催化劑似乎都沒有給人留下深刻的印象。例如，萊特幣就像比特幣一樣，每四年就會發生一次備受期待的減半。這兩種加密貨幣的減半週期相差一年，而萊特幣實際上去年就減半了。

And what have investors gotten since then? Nada. On the date of its third halving in August 2023, Litecoin was trading for $93. Today, nearly one year later, Litecoin is trading for just $80. It has actually lost value! I'm tired of waiting for Litecoin to show significant gains.

從那時起，投資者得到了什麼？沒什麼。 2023 年 8 月第三次減半之日，萊特幣的交易價格為 93 美元。近一年後的今天，萊特幣的交易價格僅為 80 美元。實際上已經失去了價值！我厭倦了等待萊特幣顯著上漲。

Bitcoin

比特幣

And that leads us to Bitcoin. I can't think of a better long-term crypto investment that you can buy and hold forever. Over its lifetime, Bitcoin has been one of the best-performing assets in the world, and it hasn't even been close. During the period from the start of 2011 to March 2021, for example, Bitcoin delivered annualized returns of 230% per year. By way of comparison, tech stocks delivered annualized returns of 20% during that same time period. While Bitcoin had an admittedly disastrous year in 2022, it returned with a vengeance in 2023, shooting up by 150%. And it's now up 65% in 2024.

這將我們引向了比特幣。我想不出還有比這更好的可以永久購買並持有的長期加密貨幣投資了。在其一生中，比特幣一直是世界上表現最好的資產之一，而且距離它還很遙遠。例如，從 2011 年初到 2021 年 3 月，比特幣的年化報酬率為 230%。相比之下，同期科技股的年化報酬率為 20%。雖然比特幣在 2022 年無疑是災難性的一年，但它在 2023 年捲土重來，飆升了 150%。到 2024 年，這一數字將成長 65%。

What makes Bitcoin truly fascinating from an investment perspective is that it also comes with some downside risk protection. Due to the historical lack of correlation between Bitcoin and other asset classes, it may be able to provide unique diversification benefits. In short, Bitcoin can zig when other assets zag. And that means you still might be able to squeeze positive returns out of your Bitcoin investment even when stocks are falling.

從投資角度來看，比特幣真正令人著迷的是它還具有一些下行風險保護。由於比特幣與其他資產類別之間歷史上缺乏相關性，因此它可能能夠提供獨特的多元化優勢。簡而言之，當其他資產波動時，比特幣也可以波動。這意味著即使股市下跌，您仍然可以從比特幣投資中獲得正回報。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖片來源：蓋蒂圖片社。

Add in the fact that the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been performing spectacularly, and it's easy to see why I'm so bullish on Bitcoin. While past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and while Bitcoin is significantly more volatile than more traditional assets, it is proving to be a fantastic store of value over the long term.

再加上新的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）表現出色，很容易理解為什麼我如此看好比特幣。雖然過去的表現並不能保證未來的表現，而且比特幣的波動性明顯高於傳統資產，但從長遠來看，它被證明是一種極好的價值儲存手段。

While Bitcoin might not hit the $1 million price level that some ultra-bulls have suggested, the steady flow of ETF money is almost certain to send Bitcoin higher over the coming years. If there's one cryptocurrency that I'm buying hand over fist in 2024, it's Bitcoin.

雖然比特幣可能不會達到一些超級多頭所建議的 100 萬美元價格水平，但 ETF 資金的穩定流動幾乎肯定會在未來幾年推高比特幣。如果說我在 2024 年會毫不猶豫地購買一種加密貨幣，那就是比特幣。