2024 年需要避免的 3 种加密货币和 1 种值得购买的加密货币

传统观点认为，大多数加密货币往往会在加密货币牛市反弹中走高，直到达到新的历史高点。

Most cryptocurrencies do tend to rise higher in a crypto bull market rally until they reach new all-time highs. But if there's anything I've learned in covering crypto for the past several years, it's that past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and this is especially true for cryptos.

大多数加密货币确实倾向于在加密货币牛市反弹中走高，直到达到新的历史高点。但如果说我过去几年在加密货币方面学到了什么的话，那就是过去的表现并不能保证未来的表现，对于加密货币来说尤其如此。

If you want to maximize the performance of your crypto portfolio, you'll need to know which cryptos to avoid and which ones to buy hand over fist. With that in mind, here are my top suggestions.

如果您想最大限度地提高加密货币投资组合的性能，您需要知道要避免哪些加密货币以及要立即购买哪些加密货币。考虑到这一点，以下是我的首要建议。

Cardano

卡尔达诺

While Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) is still a top 10 crypto on the basis of its whopping $15.5 billion market cap, it continues to lose ground to other cryptocurrencies. At the end of May, for example, meme coin Shiba Inu briefly surpassed Cardano in terms of market cap. If there's any crypto that has an annoying habit of trading flat for months at a time, it's Cardano. Investors keep waiting for a huge Cardano breakout rally past the $1 mark, but nothing ever seems to materialize.

尽管卡尔达诺（CRYPTO：ADA）以其高达 155 亿美元的市值仍然是排名前十的加密货币，但它继续输给其他加密货币。例如，5 月底，模因币 Shiba Inu 的市值一度超过了卡尔达诺。如果说有哪个加密货币有连续几个月持平的恼人习惯，那就是卡尔达诺。投资者一直在等待卡尔达诺大幅突破 1 美元大关，但似乎一切都没有实现。

Unfortunately, the situation has not improved in 2024. Cardano is now down 27% for the year, and I'm struggling to find a potential near-term catalyst that might send this crypto higher. And trust me, I've tried. At first, I thought it might be decentralized finance (DeFi) and Cardano's embrace of smart contracts. And then I thought it might be artificial intelligence (AI), and Cardano's potential ability to attract high-profile AI crypto tokens to its blockchain.

不幸的是，情况在 2024 年并没有改善。卡尔达诺今年的股价下跌了 27%，我正在努力寻找可能推动该加密货币价格上涨的潜在短期催化剂。相信我，我已经尝试过了。起初，我认为可能是去中心化金融（DeFi）和卡尔达诺对智能合约的拥抱。然后我认为这可能是人工智能（AI），以及卡尔达诺吸引高调人工智能加密代币到其区块链的潜在能力。

But in both cases, I've been proven wrong, and now I won't touch Cardano with a 10-foot pole. Sorry, Cardano. It's not you, it's me.

但在这两种情况下，我都被证明是错误的，现在我不会用 10 英尺长的杆子去碰卡尔达诺。对不起，卡尔达诺。不是你而是我。

Litecoin

莱特币

Litecoin (CRYPTO: LTC) is another cryptocurrency that I'm actively avoiding these days. And that's really a shame, because Litecoin has a long track record that goes back almost as far as Bitcoin's. In fact, Litecoin was created with nearly the same source code as Bitcoin, and was designed by a former Google engineer to be a lighter, faster version of Bitcoin (hence the term "lite" in its name).

莱特币（CRYPTO：LTC）是我最近正在积极避免的另一种加密货币。这确实是一种耻辱，因为莱特币有着悠久的历史记录，几乎可以追溯到比特币。事实上，莱特币是使用与比特币几乎相同的源代码创建的，并且是由前谷歌工程师设计的，是比特币的更轻、更快的版本（因此名称中称为“lite”）。

Unfortunately, it seems like every potential Litecoin catalyst in recent memory has been underwhelming. For example, Litecoin, just like Bitcoin, has a much-anticipated halving every four years. The halving cycles of these two cryptos are off by one year, and Litecoin actually had its halving last year.

不幸的是，最近记忆中的每一个潜在的莱特币催化剂似乎都没有给人留下深刻的印象。例如，莱特币就像比特币一样，每四年就会发生一次备受期待的减半。这两种加密货币的减半周期相差一年，而莱特币实际上去年就减半了。

And what have investors gotten since then? Nada. On the date of its third halving in August 2023, Litecoin was trading for $93. Today, nearly one year later, Litecoin is trading for just $80. It has actually lost value! I'm tired of waiting for Litecoin to show significant gains.

从那时起投资者得到了什么？没什么。 2023 年 8 月第三次减半之日，莱特币的交易价格为 93 美元。近一年后的今天，莱特币的交易价格仅为 80 美元。实际上已经失去了价值！我厌倦了等待莱特币显示出显着的收益。

Bitcoin

比特币

And that leads us to Bitcoin. I can't think of a better long-term crypto investment that you can buy and hold forever. Over its lifetime, Bitcoin has been one of the best-performing assets in the world, and it hasn't even been close. During the period from the start of 2011 to March 2021, for example, Bitcoin delivered annualized returns of 230% per year. By way of comparison, tech stocks delivered annualized returns of 20% during that same time period. While Bitcoin had an admittedly disastrous year in 2022, it returned with a vengeance in 2023, shooting up by 150%. And it's now up 65% in 2024.

这将我们引向了比特币。我想不出还有比这更好的可以永久购买并持有的长期加密货币投资了。在其一生中，比特币一直是世界上表现最好的资产之一，而且距离它还很遥远。例如，从 2011 年初到 2021 年 3 月，比特币的年化回报率为 230%。相比之下，同期科技股的年化回报率为 20%。虽然比特币在 2022 年无疑是灾难性的一年，但它在 2023 年卷土重来，飙升了 150%。到 2024 年，这一数字将增长 65%。

What makes Bitcoin truly fascinating from an investment perspective is that it also comes with some downside risk protection. Due to the historical lack of correlation between Bitcoin and other asset classes, it may be able to provide unique diversification benefits. In short, Bitcoin can zig when other assets zag. And that means you still might be able to squeeze positive returns out of your Bitcoin investment even when stocks are falling.

从投资角度来看，比特币真正令人着迷的是它还具有一些下行风险保护。由于比特币与其他资产类别之间历史上缺乏相关性，因此它可能能够提供独特的多元化优势。简而言之，当其他资产波动时，比特币也可以波动。这意味着即使股市下跌，您仍然可以从比特币投资中获得正回报。

Image source: Getty Images.

图片来源：盖蒂图片社。

Add in the fact that the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been performing spectacularly, and it's easy to see why I'm so bullish on Bitcoin. While past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and while Bitcoin is significantly more volatile than more traditional assets, it is proving to be a fantastic store of value over the long term.

再加上新的现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）表现出色，很容易理解为什么我如此看好比特币。虽然过去的表现并不能保证未来的表现，而且比特币的波动性明显高于传统资产，但从长远来看，它被证明是一种极好的价值储存手段。

While Bitcoin might not hit the $1 million price level that some ultra-bulls have suggested, the steady flow of ETF money is almost certain to send Bitcoin higher over the coming years. If there's one cryptocurrency that I'm buying hand over fist in 2024, it's Bitcoin.

虽然比特币可能不会达到一些超级多头所建议的 100 万美元价格水平，但 ETF 资金的稳定流动几乎肯定会在未来几年推高比特币。如果说我在 2024 年会毫不犹豫地购买一种加密货币，那就是比特币。