CryptoQuant創始人兼首席執行官Ki Young Ju說，他願意承認一個重大的預測錯誤

On-Chain Analytics平台CryptoQuant的創始人兼首席執行官Ki Young Ju說，他願意承認一個重大的預測錯誤

Ki Young Ju, Founder and CEO of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, says he's open to conceding a major forecast error, if Bitcoin BTC/USD breaks above $100,000.

On-Chain Analytics平台CryptoQuant的創始人兼首席執行官Ki Young Ju說，如果比特幣BTC/USD違反了100,000美元以上，他就願意承認重大預測錯誤。

What Happened: In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Ju acknowledged that Bitcoin is now trading 10% higher than when he recently declared the bull cycle to be over.

發生的事情是：在X（以前是Twitter）的帖子中，JU承認比特幣現在比最近宣佈公牛循環結束時要高10％。

Despite the move, he remains cautious, stating, “If it breaks above $100K, I'll gladly admit I was wrong.”

儘管採取了這種行動，他仍然謹慎，並說：“如果損失超過$ 10萬美元，我會很樂意承認我錯了。”

Ju's recent comments on X follow his earlier analysis, which flagged a potential market top based on historical on-chain data.

JU對X的最新評論遵循了他的早期分析，該分析根據歷史上的鏈數據標記了潛在的市場頂部。

CryptoQuant's proprietary PnL Index chart, which tracks Bitcoin's price against on-chain profitability metrics over a decade, recently issued a sell signal similar to those in 2013, 2017, and 2021, each preceding significant corrections or consolidation.

CryptoQuant的專有PNL指數圖表，該圖表在十年內跟踪比特幣的價格與鏈上盈利性指標的價格，最近發出了與2013年，2017年和2021年相似的賣出信號，每個信號都具有重大糾正或合併。

“We are likely past the bull cycle peak,” Ju had warned, anticipating sideways or bearish movement for six to twelve months. However, Bitcoin's price has since risen 10% above his initial call, despite a recent 10% drop.

JU警告說：“我們可能已經超越了公牛週期的山峰。”六到十二個月。但是，儘管最近下降了10％，但比特幣的價格自以來的價格上漲了10％。

The comments come amid a volatile week in crypto markets.

這些評論是在加密貨幣市場波動的一周中進行的。

Also Read: Why Bitcoin Reclaiming $92,900 Could Be A Pivotal Moment: Glassnode

另請閱讀：為什麼比特幣回收$ 92,900可能是一個關鍵時刻：玻璃節

Why It Matters: As of Thursday evening European time, Bitcoin is trading around $93,000, down about 1% on the day.

為什麼很重要：截至歐洲星期四，比特幣的交易約為93,000美元，當天下降了約1％。

Ethereum ETH/USD is lower at $1,755, while XRP XRP/USD, BNB BNB/USD, and Solana SOL/USD are showing modest declines or trading flat.

Ethereum eth/USD較低，為1,755美元，而XRP XRP/USD，BNB BNB/USD和Solana Sol/USD顯示出適度的下降或交易平坦。

Ju emphasized that short-term market moves are increasingly driven by event-based reactions, referencing political developments—making them difficult to interpret with traditional on-chain cycle indicators.

JU強調，短期市場的轉變越來越多地由基於事件的反應，參考政治發展，使它們難以通過傳統的鏈循環指標來解釋。

“My focus is on long-term supply and demand using on-chain data. But in a market that reacts to every Trump comment, short-term price actions are much more event-driven,” he explained.

他解釋說：“我的重點是使用鏈上數據的長期供求。但是，在對每個特朗普評論的市場中，短期價格行動更具事件為導向。”

He added that if Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high before Q4, he would be forced to reconsider prevailing cycle theories: “In that case, the permabulls were right. Up only.”

他補充說，如果比特幣在第四季度之前達到了新的歷史最高水平，他將被迫重新考慮盛行的周期理論：“在這種情況下，腐敗是正確的。只有。”

Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, commented on broader market influences, stating, “Today's U.S. calendar includes initial jobless claims and existing home sales, key reads on labor market health and consumer confidence.”

Nexo Dispatch的分析師Iliya Kalchev對更廣泛的市場影響表示：“當今的美國日曆包括最初的失業索賠和現有房屋銷售，有關勞動力市場健康和消費者信心的關鍵閱讀。”

He added that Friday's University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and Alphabet's earnings could further impact risk appetite amid trade policy uncertainty.

他補充說，週五的密歇根大學消費者情感指數和Alphabet的收入可能會進一步影響貿易政策不確定性的風險胃口。

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