CryptoQuant创始人兼首席执行官Ki Young Ju说，他愿意承认一个重大的预测错误

On-Chain Analytics平台CryptoQuant的创始人兼首席执行官Ki Young Ju说，他愿意承认一个重大的预测错误

Ki Young Ju, Founder and CEO of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, says he's open to conceding a major forecast error, if Bitcoin BTC/USD breaks above $100,000.

On-Chain Analytics平台CryptoQuant的创始人兼首席执行官Ki Young Ju说，如果比特币BTC/USD违反了100,000美元以上，他就愿意承认重大预测错误。

What Happened: In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Ju acknowledged that Bitcoin is now trading 10% higher than when he recently declared the bull cycle to be over.

发生的事情是：在X（以前是Twitter）的帖子中，JU承认比特币现在比最近宣布公牛循环结束时要高10％。

Despite the move, he remains cautious, stating, “If it breaks above $100K, I'll gladly admit I was wrong.”

尽管采取了这种行动，他仍然谨慎，并说：“如果损失超过$ 10万美元，我会很乐意承认我错了。”

Ju's recent comments on X follow his earlier analysis, which flagged a potential market top based on historical on-chain data.

JU对X的最新评论遵循了他的早期分析，该分析根据历史上的链数据标记了潜在的市场顶部。

CryptoQuant's proprietary PnL Index chart, which tracks Bitcoin's price against on-chain profitability metrics over a decade, recently issued a sell signal similar to those in 2013, 2017, and 2021, each preceding significant corrections or consolidation.

CryptoQuant的专有PNL指数图表，该图表在十年内跟踪比特币的价格与链上盈利性指标的价格，最近发出了与2013年，2017年和2021年相似的卖出信号，每个信号都具有重大纠正或合并。

“We are likely past the bull cycle peak,” Ju had warned, anticipating sideways or bearish movement for six to twelve months. However, Bitcoin's price has since risen 10% above his initial call, despite a recent 10% drop.

JU警告说：“我们可能已经超越了公牛周期的山峰。”六到十二个月。但是，尽管最近下降了10％，但比特币的价格自以来的价格上涨了10％。

The comments come amid a volatile week in crypto markets.

这些评论是在加密货币市场波动的一周中进行的。

Also Read: Why Bitcoin Reclaiming $92,900 Could Be A Pivotal Moment: Glassnode

另请阅读：为什么比特币回收$ 92,900可能是一个关键时刻：玻璃节

Why It Matters: As of Thursday evening European time, Bitcoin is trading around $93,000, down about 1% on the day.

为什么很重要：截至欧洲星期四，比特币的交易约为93,000美元，当天下降了约1％。

Ethereum ETH/USD is lower at $1,755, while XRP XRP/USD, BNB BNB/USD, and Solana SOL/USD are showing modest declines or trading flat.

Ethereum eth/USD较低，为1,755美元，而XRP XRP/USD，BNB BNB/USD和Solana Sol/USD显示出适度的下降或交易平坦。

Ju emphasized that short-term market moves are increasingly driven by event-based reactions, referencing political developments—making them difficult to interpret with traditional on-chain cycle indicators.

JU强调，短期市场的转变越来越多地由基于事件的反应，参考政治发展，使它们难以通过传统的链循环指标来解释。

“My focus is on long-term supply and demand using on-chain data. But in a market that reacts to every Trump comment, short-term price actions are much more event-driven,” he explained.

他解释说：“我的重点是使用链上数据的长期供求。但是，在对每个特朗普评论的市场中，短期价格行动更具事件为导向。”

He added that if Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high before Q4, he would be forced to reconsider prevailing cycle theories: “In that case, the permabulls were right. Up only.”

他补充说，如果比特币在第四季度之前达到了新的历史最高水平，他将被迫重新考虑盛行的周期理论：“在这种情况下，腐败是正确的。只有。”

Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, commented on broader market influences, stating, “Today's U.S. calendar includes initial jobless claims and existing home sales, key reads on labor market health and consumer confidence.”

Nexo Dispatch的分析师Iliya Kalchev对更广泛的市场影响表示：“当今的美国日历包括最初的失业索赔和现有房屋销售，有关劳动力市场健康和消费者信心的关键阅读。”

He added that Friday's University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and Alphabet's earnings could further impact risk appetite amid trade policy uncertainty.

他补充说，周五的密歇根大学消费者情感指数和Alphabet的收入可能会进一步影响贸易政策不确定性的风险胃口。

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