CryptoQuant 的比特幣牛熊週期指標目前處於負值區域

分析公司 CryptoQuant 的比特幣週期指標表明，比特幣在崩盤後已經過渡到看跌階段。

A new signal from a Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) cycle indicator suggests that the apex coin has transitioned into a bearish phase following the recent crash.

比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）週期指標的新訊號表明，在最近的崩盤之後，頂級代幣已過渡到看跌階段。

What Happened: CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno discussed the latest development in the “Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator” in a post on Fxcryptonews.

發生了什麼事：CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 在 Fxcryptonews 上的一篇文章中討論了「牛熊市場週期指標」的最新發展。

The metric is based on CryptoQuant's P&L Index, which combines several popular on-chain indicators related to unrealized and realized profit/loss.

該指標基於 CryptoQuant 的損益指數，該指數結合了與未實現和已實現損益相關的幾個流行的鏈上指標。

The P&L Index indicates whether BTC is in a bear or bull market. When the indicator crosses above its 365-day moving average (MA), BTC is assumed to have entered a bullish phase. A drop below the MA signals a bearish transition.

損益指數顯示 BTC 是處於熊市還是多頭市場。當該指標突破 365 天移動平均線（MA）時，BTC 被認為已進入看漲階段。跌破移動平均線標誌著看跌轉變。

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator visualizes the P&L Index in a more user-friendly format by tracking its distance from its 365-day MA.

牛熊市場週期指標透過追蹤其與 365 天移動平均線的距離，以更用戶友好的格式可視化損益指數。

A chart displaying the trend in the Bitcoin indicator is shown below.

顯示比特幣指標趨勢的圖表如下所示。

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator shot up earlier in 2023 as BTC's price rallied to a new all-time high, reaching a zone called “overheated bull.” At these values, the P&L Index gains a significant distance from its 365-day MA, indicating overheated asset prices.

2023 年早些時候，隨著 BTC 價格上漲至歷史新高，牛熊市場週期指標飆升，達到了被稱為「過熱牛市」的區域。在這些值下，損益指數與其 365 天移動平均線相差很大，表示資產價格過熱。

Coinciding with these overheated values, the asset's price reached a top, which is still the peak of the rally to date.

與這些過熱的價值一致，該資產的價格達到了頂峰，這仍然是迄今為止反彈的頂峰。

After spending several months in the normal bull territory, the indicator appears to have slipped below the zero mark, indicating that the P&L Index has now crossed below its 365-day MA.

在正常牛市區域度過幾個月後，該指標似乎已跌破零線，顯示損益指數現已跌破 365 日移動平均線。

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is now flagging a bear phase for Bitcoin. This is the first time the metric has signaled a bear phase since January 2023, Moreno noted.

牛熊市場週期指標現在標誌著比特幣進入熊市階段。莫雷諾指出，這是自 2023 年 1 月以來該指標首次顯示熊市階段。

However, it is important to note that this signal does not necessarily indicate that the cryptocurrency will enter an extended bear market.

但值得注意的是，這項訊號並不一定表示加密貨幣將進入延續的熊市。

As highlighted by the CryptoQuant head, there have been periods in the past where the metric has only briefly signaled a bear phase for BTC.

正如 CryptoQuant 負責人所強調的那樣，在過去的一段時間內，該指標僅短暫地表明了 BTC 的熊市階段。

The chart shows that both the COVID-19 crash in March 2020 and the China mining ban in May 2021 briefly triggered bear phases from the indicator's perspective.

這張圖表顯示，從該指標的角度來看，2020 年 3 月的 COVID-19 崩盤和 2021 年 5 月的中國採礦禁令都短暫引發了熊市階段。

It now remains to be seen whether the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator will remain in negative territory for only a short period this time as well.

現在，比特幣牛熊市場週期指標是否也會在短時間內保持在負值區域還有待觀察。

BTC Price: At the time of writing, BTC trades at $56,933, down 13.5% over the last seven days.

BTC 價格：截至撰寫本文時，BTC 交易價格為 56,933 美元，過去 7 天下跌 13.5%。