CryptoQuant 的比特币牛熊周期指标目前处于负值区域

分析公司 CryptoQuant 的比特币周期指标表明，比特币在崩盘后已经过渡到看跌阶段。

A new signal from a Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) cycle indicator suggests that the apex coin has transitioned into a bearish phase following the recent crash.

比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）周期指标的新信号表明，在最近的崩盘之后，顶级代币已过渡到看跌阶段。

What Happened: CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno discussed the latest development in the “Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator” in a post on Fxcryptonews.

发生了什么：CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 在 Fxcryptonews 上的一篇文章中讨论了“牛熊市场周期指标”的最新发展。

The metric is based on CryptoQuant's P&L Index, which combines several popular on-chain indicators related to unrealized and realized profit/loss.

该指标基于 CryptoQuant 的损益指数，该指数结合了与未实现和已实现损益相关的几个流行的链上指标。

The P&L Index indicates whether BTC is in a bear or bull market. When the indicator crosses above its 365-day moving average (MA), BTC is assumed to have entered a bullish phase. A drop below the MA signals a bearish transition.

损益指数表明 BTC 是处于熊市还是牛市。当该指标突破 365 天移动平均线（MA）时，BTC 被认为已进入看涨阶段。跌破移动平均线标志着看跌转变。

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator visualizes the P&L Index in a more user-friendly format by tracking its distance from its 365-day MA.

牛熊市场周期指标通过跟踪其与 365 天移动平均线的距离，以更加用户友好的格式可视化损益指数。

A chart displaying the trend in the Bitcoin indicator is shown below.

显示比特币指标趋势的图表如下所示。

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator shot up earlier in 2023 as BTC's price rallied to a new all-time high, reaching a zone called “overheated bull.” At these values, the P&L Index gains a significant distance from its 365-day MA, indicating overheated asset prices.

2023 年早些时候，随着 BTC 价格上涨至历史新高，牛熊市场周期指标飙升，达到了被称为“过热牛市”的区域。在这些值下，损益指数与其 365 天移动平均线相差很大，表明资产价格过热。

Coinciding with these overheated values, the asset's price reached a top, which is still the peak of the rally to date.

与这些过热的价值相一致，该资产的价格达到了顶峰，这仍然是迄今为止反弹的顶峰。

After spending several months in the normal bull territory, the indicator appears to have slipped below the zero mark, indicating that the P&L Index has now crossed below its 365-day MA.

在正常牛市区域度过几个月后，该指标似乎已跌破零线，表明损益指数现已跌破 365 日移动平均线。

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is now flagging a bear phase for Bitcoin. This is the first time the metric has signaled a bear phase since January 2023, Moreno noted.

牛熊市场周期指标现在标志着比特币进入熊市阶段。莫雷诺指出，这是自 2023 年 1 月以来该指标首次表明熊市阶段。

However, it is important to note that this signal does not necessarily indicate that the cryptocurrency will enter an extended bear market.

但值得注意的是，这一信号并不一定表明加密货币将进入延续的熊市。

As highlighted by the CryptoQuant head, there have been periods in the past where the metric has only briefly signaled a bear phase for BTC.

正如 CryptoQuant 负责人所强调的那样，在过去的一段时间内，该指标仅短暂地表明了 BTC 的熊市阶段。

The chart shows that both the COVID-19 crash in March 2020 and the China mining ban in May 2021 briefly triggered bear phases from the indicator's perspective.

该图表显示，从该指标的角度来看，2020 年 3 月的 COVID-19 崩盘和 2021 年 5 月的中国采矿禁令都短暂引发了熊市阶段。

It now remains to be seen whether the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator will remain in negative territory for only a short period this time as well.

现在，比特币牛熊市场周期指标是否也会在短时间内保持在负值区域还有待观察。

BTC Price: At the time of writing, BTC trades at $56,933, down 13.5% over the last seven days.

BTC 价格：截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 56,933 美元，过去 7 天下跌 13.5%。