MicroStrategy 的 Michael Saylor 表示，這種加密貨幣可能在未來 20 年飆升 23,000%

儘管截至本文撰寫時，比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）的價格比今年早些時候創下的73,750 美元的歷史高點低了近25%，但仍有許多看漲的加密貨幣投資者仍然相信，從長遠來看，比特幣將會飆升。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be trading almost 25% below its all-time high of $73,750 reached earlier this year, but there are plenty of bullish crypto investors who are still convinced that Bitcoin will skyrocket over the long run. Among them is Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), who recently doubled down on his prediction that a single Bitcoin would be worth $13 million by the year 2045.

比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）的交易價格可能比今年稍早創下的73,750 美元的歷史高點低近25%，但仍有許多看漲的加密貨幣投資者仍然相信比特幣從長遠來看將會飆升。其中包括 MicroStrategy（納斯達克股票代碼：MSTR）的創始人兼執行主席 Michael Saylor，他最近加倍預測到 2045 年單個比特幣的價值將達到 1300 萬美元。

At last report, MicroStrategy owned 226,500 Bitcoins with a market value around $14 billion. It touts itself as “the largest corporate holder of bitcoin and the world’s first bitcoin development company.” Bloomberg reported last month that Saylor himself owns about $1 billion worth of Bitcoins.

根據最新報告，MicroStrategy 擁有 226,500 枚比特幣，市值約 140 億美元。它標榜自己是「最大的比特幣企業持有者和世界上第一家比特幣開發公司」。彭博社上個月報道稱，塞勒本人擁有價值約 10 億美元的比特幣。

Based on Bitcoin’s recent price of $55,000, a $13 million target represents an astronomical 23,000% return if you buy today and hold for the next two decades. Obviously, a lot has to happen for that to become a reality. Let’s take a closer look.

根據比特幣近期 55,000 美元的價格，如果您今天購買並在未來 20 年持有，那麼 1300 萬美元的目標意味著 23,000% 的天文數字回報。顯然，要使之成為現實還需要發生很多事情。讓我們仔細看看。

Bitcoin’s long-run performance

比特幣的長期表現

Yes, seeing a $13 million price tag for Bitcoin can induce a fair amount of sticker shock. But if you dig into the numbers, the math actually starts to make sense. And a lot of that has to do with the compounding power of money. If any asset is allowed to compound in value for a long period of time, the results have the potential to shock.

是的，看到比特幣 1300 萬美元的價格標籤可能會引起相當大的價格衝擊。但如果你深入研究這些數字，你會發現數學其實開始有意義了。這在很大程度上與金錢的複利能力有關。如果任何資產的價值長期複利，其結果可能會令人震驚。

In the case of Bitcoin, it would require a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% for the magic to happen and it to jump from $55,000 now to $13 million in 2045. In other words, if Bitcoin can increase in value by 30% per year, for the next 21 years, an upfront investment of $55,000 would turn into $13 million.

就比特幣而言，需要 30% 的複合年增長率 (CAGR) 才能實現奇蹟，並從現在的 55,000 美元躍升至 2045 年的 1300 萬美元。 ，在接下來的21 年裡，55,000 美元的前期投資將變成1,300 萬美元。

And, while it may be unlikely, a CAGR of 30% for Bitcoin is not out of the question. From 2011 to 2021, Bitcoin delivered annualized returns of 230% per year. And Bitcoin returned approximately 150% in 2023. Already this year, Bitcoin is up more than 30%. Over the past five years, the only blemish was 2022, when Bitcoin fell nearly 65%.

而且，雖然可能性不大，但比特幣的複合年增長率達到 30% 並非不可能。從 2011 年到 2021 年，比特幣的年化報酬率為 230%。 2023 年，比特幣的回報率約為 150%。在過去五年裡，唯一的瑕疵是 2022 年，比特幣下跌了近 65%。

So what can investors realistically expect? In an interview this month with CNBC, Saylor predicted that during the next two decades, Bitcoin’s annual return would steadily fall over time, from about 44% a year to 40% to 35% to 30% to 25% to… well, you get the idea. The final long-run number for Bitcoin, says Saylor, would be the annual return of the S&P 500 plus an extra 8% to compensate investors for the extra risk.

那麼投資人實際上可以期待什麼呢？在本月接受CNBC 採訪時，塞勒預測，在接下來的二十年裡，比特幣的年回報率將隨著時間的推移而穩步下降，從每年約44% 下降到40%、35%、30 %、25%，然後……嗯，你得到這個想法。 Saylor 表示，比特幣的最終長期數字將是標準普爾 500 指數的年回報率加上額外的 8%，以補償投資者的額外風險。

At some point, of course, it’s worth taking a moment to ponder what a price tag of $13 million really means for Bitcoin. Based on its current circulating coin supply of 20 million, that implies a future market cap of $260 trillion. That dwarfs the value of any tech stock today, and in fact, it dwarfs the value of the entire S&P 500, which today sits at around $45 trillion.

當然，在某些時候，值得花點時間思考 1300 萬美元的價格標籤對比特幣到底意味著什麼。根據目前 2,000 萬枚的流通代幣供應量，這意味著未來的市值將達到 260 兆美元。這讓當今任何科技股的價值都相形見絀，事實上，它也讓整個標準普爾 500 指數的價值相形見絀，後者目前的價值約為 45 兆美元。

Even if we assume that U.S. stocks will grow at a rate of 10% per year over the next 20 years, a price tag of $13 million still implies that Bitcoin would represent an astonishing amount of the world’s wealth in the year 2045. For that reason alone, it’s worth having a healthy dose of skepticism about Bitcoin’s future price trajectory.

即使我們假設美國股市在未來 20 年將以每年 10% 的速度增長，1300 萬美元的價格仍然意味著 2045 年比特幣將代表世界財富的驚人數額。價格軌跡抱持著一定程度的懷疑。

Bitcoin as an asset class

比特幣作為一種資產類別

For much of its history, Bitcoin has been uncorrelated with any major asset class, and that has made it very unique from a risk diversification perspective. Quite simply, Bitcoin can zig when other assets zag.

在其歷史的大部分時間裡，比特幣與任何主要資產類別都不相關，這使得從風險分散的角度來看它非常獨特。很簡單，當其他資產波動時，比特幣也會波動。

Thus, Bitcoin is growing in favor with billionaire hedge fund managers, who increasingly view it as a way to hedge risk. In some cases, that risk might be economic, such as the risk of inflation. In other cases, that risk might be geopolitical. In the CNBC interview, Saylor uses the example of missile strikes to illustrate this point. What do you do as an investor if you wake up one morning and hear that there have been missile strikes somewhere in the world?

因此，比特幣越來越受到億萬富翁對沖基金經理人的青睞，他們越來越將其視為對沖風險的一種方式。在某些情況下，這種風險可能是經濟風險，例如通貨膨脹風險。在其他情況下，這種風險可能是地緣政治風險。在接受CNBC採訪時，塞勒用導彈襲擊的例子來說明這一點。作為投資者，如果您一天早上醒來並聽說世界某個地方發生了導彈襲擊，您會怎麼做？

Until recently, the answer to that question might have been: Buy gold. But there is growing popularity in the notion that Bitcoin is “digital gold.” Some investors are

直到最近，這個問題的答案可能是：購買黃金。但比特幣是「數位黃金」的觀念越來越受歡迎。一些投資者是