MicroStrategy 的 Michael Saylor 表示，这种加密货币可能在未来 20 年飙升 23,000%

尽管截至本文撰写时，比特币（加密货币：BTC）的价格比今年早些时候创下的 73,750 美元的历史高点低了近 25%，但仍有许多看涨的加密货币投资者仍然相信，从长远来看，比特币将会飙升。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be trading almost 25% below its all-time high of $73,750 reached earlier this year, but there are plenty of bullish crypto investors who are still convinced that Bitcoin will skyrocket over the long run. Among them is Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), who recently doubled down on his prediction that a single Bitcoin would be worth $13 million by the year 2045.

比特币（加密货币：BTC）的交易价格可能比今年早些时候创下的 73,750 美元的历史高点低近 25%，但仍有很多看涨的加密货币投资者仍然相信比特币从长远来看将会飙升。其中包括 MicroStrategy（纳斯达克股票代码：MSTR）的创始人兼执行主席 Michael Saylor，他最近加倍预测到 2045 年单个比特币的价值将达到 1300 万美元。

At last report, MicroStrategy owned 226,500 Bitcoins with a market value around $14 billion. It touts itself as “the largest corporate holder of bitcoin and the world’s first bitcoin development company.” Bloomberg reported last month that Saylor himself owns about $1 billion worth of Bitcoins.

根据最新报告，MicroStrategy 拥有 226,500 枚比特币，市值约为 140 亿美元。它标榜自己是“最大的比特币企业持有者和世界上第一家比特币开发公司”。彭博社上个月报道称，塞勒本人拥有价值约 10 亿美元的比特币。

Based on Bitcoin’s recent price of $55,000, a $13 million target represents an astronomical 23,000% return if you buy today and hold for the next two decades. Obviously, a lot has to happen for that to become a reality. Let’s take a closer look.

根据比特币近期 55,000 美元的价格，如果您今天购买并在未来 20 年持有，那么 1300 万美元的目标意味着 23,000% 的天文数字回报。显然，要使之成为现实还需要发生很多事情。让我们仔细看看。

Bitcoin’s long-run performance

比特币的长期表现

Yes, seeing a $13 million price tag for Bitcoin can induce a fair amount of sticker shock. But if you dig into the numbers, the math actually starts to make sense. And a lot of that has to do with the compounding power of money. If any asset is allowed to compound in value for a long period of time, the results have the potential to shock.

是的，看到比特币 1300 万美元的价格标签可能会引起相当大的价格冲击。但如果你深入研究这些数字，你就会发现数学实际上开始有意义了。这在很大程度上与金钱的复利能力有关。如果任何资产的价值长期复利，其结果可能会令人震惊。

In the case of Bitcoin, it would require a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% for the magic to happen and it to jump from $55,000 now to $13 million in 2045. In other words, if Bitcoin can increase in value by 30% per year, for the next 21 years, an upfront investment of $55,000 would turn into $13 million.

就比特币而言，需要 30% 的复合年增长率 (CAGR) 才能实现奇迹，并从现在的 55,000 美元跃升至 2045 年的 1300 万美元。换句话说，如果比特币的价值能够增加 30每年 %，在接下来的 21 年里，55,000 美元的前期投资将变成 1300 万美元。

And, while it may be unlikely, a CAGR of 30% for Bitcoin is not out of the question. From 2011 to 2021, Bitcoin delivered annualized returns of 230% per year. And Bitcoin returned approximately 150% in 2023. Already this year, Bitcoin is up more than 30%. Over the past five years, the only blemish was 2022, when Bitcoin fell nearly 65%.

而且，虽然可能性不大，但比特币的复合年增长率达到 30% 并非不可能。从 2011 年到 2021 年，比特币的年化回报率为 230%。 2023 年，比特币的回报率约为 150%。今年，比特币的涨幅已超过 30%。过去五年里，唯一的瑕疵是 2022 年，比特币下跌了近 65%。

So what can investors realistically expect? In an interview this month with CNBC, Saylor predicted that during the next two decades, Bitcoin’s annual return would steadily fall over time, from about 44% a year to 40% to 35% to 30% to 25% to… well, you get the idea. The final long-run number for Bitcoin, says Saylor, would be the annual return of the S&P 500 plus an extra 8% to compensate investors for the extra risk.

那么投资者实际可以期待什么？在本月接受 CNBC 采访时，塞勒预测，在接下来的二十年里，比特币的年回报率将随着时间的推移稳步下降，从每年约 44% 下降到 40%、35%、30%、25%，然后……嗯，你得到这个想法。 Saylor 表示，比特币的最终长期数字将是标准普尔 500 指数的年回报率加上额外的 8%，以补偿投资者的额外风险。

At some point, of course, it’s worth taking a moment to ponder what a price tag of $13 million really means for Bitcoin. Based on its current circulating coin supply of 20 million, that implies a future market cap of $260 trillion. That dwarfs the value of any tech stock today, and in fact, it dwarfs the value of the entire S&P 500, which today sits at around $45 trillion.

当然，在某些时候，值得花点时间思考 1300 万美元的价格标签对比特币到底意味着什么。根据目前 2000 万枚的流通代币供应量，这意味着未来的市值将达到 260 万亿美元。这让当今任何科技股的价值都相形见绌，事实上，它也让整个标准普尔 500 指数的价值相形见绌，后者目前的价值约为 45 万亿美元。

Even if we assume that U.S. stocks will grow at a rate of 10% per year over the next 20 years, a price tag of $13 million still implies that Bitcoin would represent an astonishing amount of the world’s wealth in the year 2045. For that reason alone, it’s worth having a healthy dose of skepticism about Bitcoin’s future price trajectory.

即使我们假设美国股市在未来 20 年将以每年 10% 的速度增长，1300 万美元的价格仍然意味着 2045 年比特币将代表世界财富的惊人数额。仅凭这一点，就值得对比特币未来的价格轨迹抱有一定程度的怀疑。

Bitcoin as an asset class

比特币作为一种资产类别

For much of its history, Bitcoin has been uncorrelated with any major asset class, and that has made it very unique from a risk diversification perspective. Quite simply, Bitcoin can zig when other assets zag.

在其历史的大部分时间里，比特币与任何主要资产类别都不相关，这使得从风险分散的角度来看它非常独特。很简单，当其他资产波动时，比特币也会波动。

Thus, Bitcoin is growing in favor with billionaire hedge fund managers, who increasingly view it as a way to hedge risk. In some cases, that risk might be economic, such as the risk of inflation. In other cases, that risk might be geopolitical. In the CNBC interview, Saylor uses the example of missile strikes to illustrate this point. What do you do as an investor if you wake up one morning and hear that there have been missile strikes somewhere in the world?

因此，比特币越来越受到亿万富翁对冲基金经理的青睐，他们越来越将其视为对冲风险的一种方式。在某些情况下，这种风险可能是经济风险，例如通货膨胀风险。在其他情况下，这种风险可能是地缘政治风险。在接受CNBC采访时，塞勒用导弹袭击的例子来说明这一点。作为一名投资者，如果您一天早上醒来并听说世界某个地方发生了导弹袭击，您会怎么做？

Until recently, the answer to that question might have been: Buy gold. But there is growing popularity in the notion that Bitcoin is “digital gold.” Some investors are

直到最近，这个问题的答案可能是：购买黄金。但比特币是“数字黄金”的观念越来越受欢迎。一些投资者是