由於比特幣減半，預計 4 月下半月加密貨幣將出現波動

Cryptocurrencies are anticipated to have significant volatility in the second half of April pertaining to Bitcoin halving.

由於比特幣減半，加密貨幣預計將在 4 月下半月大幅波動。

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX said, “The Bitcoin halving this month, combined with a “bag of tricks” from the Federal Reserve and Treasury, will “add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets” and depress the crypto market for weeks.”

BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 表示：“本月比特幣減半，再加上美聯儲和財政部的一系列‘伎倆’，將‘為加密資產的瘋狂拋售火上澆油’，並打壓加密市場。”幾週。”

Views of Arthur Hayer

On April 8, he shared in a blog post that he believed that Bitcoin halving would push up prices in the medium and short term but told that crypto prices could move in the negative direction before and after the event.

Arthur Hayer 的觀點4 月8 日，他在一篇部落格文章中表示，他認為比特幣減半將在中短期內推高價格，但他表示，在減半事件前後，加密貨幣價格可能會朝負方向移動。

He wrote, “The narrative of the halving being positive for crypto prices is well entrenched. When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually occurs.”

他寫道：「減半對加密貨幣價格有利的說法已經根深蒂固。當大多數市場參與者就某個結果達成一致時，通常會發生相反的情況。”

Crypto market enthusiasts believe that around the time of bitcoin halving liquidity of dollar will also be lower than usual. Hayes believes that his theory on the impact of United States Federal Reserve and Treasury policies.

加密市場愛好者認為，在比特幣減半前後，美元的流動性也將低於平常。海耶斯認為，他的理論對聯準會和財政部政策的影響。

He said, “That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving […] It will add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets.”

他說：“這就是為什麼我相信比特幣和加密貨幣價格總體將在減半前後暴跌……這將為加密資產的瘋狂拋售增添動力。”

“Could the market defy my bearish inclinations and continue higher? Fuck yeah,” he wrote. “I’m perennially long as fuck crypto, so I welcome being wrong.”

「市場能否克服我的看跌傾向並繼續走高？他媽的，是的，」他寫道。 “我一直熱衷於加密貨幣，所以我歡迎犯錯。”

He made a note that the second half of April will be a significant period of risky assets as U.S. tax payments have eliminated liquidity. The Fed started Quantitative Tightening (QT), which led to a decrease in the money supply and the Treasury’s General Account (TGA), which is basically the government’s checking account, is pending to be used.

他指出，4 月下半月將是風險資產的重要時期，因為美國納稅已經消除了流動性。聯準會開始量化緊縮（QT），導致貨幣供應量減少，而財政部的普通帳戶（TGA）（基本上是政府的支票帳戶）即將動用。

The Fed Meeting is scheduled for May 1 and the changes will be implemented from May 1. He expects that the Fed meeting will reduce the pace of money supply tightening and the Treasury from the TGA is anticipated to release a liquidity flow of an additional $1 Trillion into the system.

聯準會會議定於5月1日舉行，這些變化將從5月1日起實施。他預計，聯準會會議將放慢貨幣供應緊縮的步伐，財政部預計TGA將額外釋放1兆美元的流動性進入系統。

Hayes said that he will halt his trading activities until May due to the upcoming halving and the Fed and Treasury’s bag of tricks.

海耶斯表示，由於即將到來的減半以及聯準會和財政部的一系列伎倆，他將停止交易活動直到五月。

In a year, Bitcoin has increased over 60% from a value of approximately $42,000 to an approximately $71,000, as recorded in the media.

根據媒體報道，一年內，比特幣的價值從約 42,000 美元上漲至約 71,000 美元，漲幅超過 60%。

Greed Analysis on Bitcoin

There has been an observed increase in market sentiment as measured by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index. To stay in the Greed, it needs a score of 50 out of a possible of 100 or above after January 27.

比特幣的貪婪分析根據加密貨幣恐懼和貪婪指數來衡量，市場情緒明顯增加。要留在「貪婪」中，1 月 27 日之後得分需要達到 50 分（滿分 100 分）或以上。

On April 9, the chart showed extreme greed at a score of 80, an increase from the score of 76. 

4 月 9 日，圖表顯示極度貪婪，得分為 80，比 76 分有所上升。

Source: Alternative.me

來源：Alternative.me

In the beginning of the year, the score was standing at 65, meaning Greed, but then marked a high of 90 on March 5. This high is the highest in two years.

今年年初，該分數為65分，即“貪婪”，但在3月5日達到了90分的高點，這是兩年來的最高分。

In the end, Hayes specified that if the liquidity scenarios he considered and theorized came true, it would substantially increase his confidence in the market.

最後，海耶斯指出，如果他考慮和理論化的流動性情景成為現實，這將大大增強他對市場的信心。

He concluded that “If I miss a few percentage points of gains but definitely avoid losses for my portfolio and lifestyle, that is an acceptable outcome.” 

他的結論是：“如果我錯過了幾個百分點的收益，但絕對避免了我的投資組合和生活方式的損失，那是一個可以接受的結果。”