由于比特币减半，预计 4 月下半月加密货币将出现波动

Cryptocurrencies are anticipated to have significant volatility in the second half of April pertaining to Bitcoin halving.

由于比特币减半，预计加密货币将在 4 月下半月出现大幅波动。

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX said, “The Bitcoin halving this month, combined with a “bag of tricks” from the Federal Reserve and Treasury, will “add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets” and depress the crypto market for weeks.”

BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 表示：“本月比特币减半，再加上美联储和财政部的一系列‘伎俩’，将‘为加密资产的疯狂抛售火上浇油’，并打压加密市场。”几周。”

Views of Arthur Hayer

On April 8, he shared in a blog post that he believed that Bitcoin halving would push up prices in the medium and short term but told that crypto prices could move in the negative direction before and after the event.

Arthur Hayer 的观点 4 月 8 日，他在一篇博客文章中表示，他认为比特币减半将在中短期内推高价格，但他表示，在减半事件前后，加密货币价格可能会朝负方向移动。

He wrote, “The narrative of the halving being positive for crypto prices is well entrenched. When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually occurs.”

他写道：“减半对加密货币价格有利的说法已经根深蒂固。当大多数市场参与者就某个结果达成一致时，通常会发生相反的情况。”

Crypto market enthusiasts believe that around the time of bitcoin halving liquidity of dollar will also be lower than usual. Hayes believes that his theory on the impact of United States Federal Reserve and Treasury policies.

加密市场爱好者认为，在比特币减半前后，美元的流动性也将低于平时。海耶斯认为，他的理论对美联储和财政部政策的影响。

He said, “That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving […] It will add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets.”

他说：“这就是为什么我相信比特币和加密货币价格总体将在减半前后暴跌……这将为加密资产的疯狂抛售增添动力。”

“Could the market defy my bearish inclinations and continue higher? Fuck yeah,” he wrote. “I’m perennially long as fuck crypto, so I welcome being wrong.”

“市场能否克服我的看跌倾向并继续走高？他妈的，是的，”他写道。 “我一直热衷于加密货币，所以我欢迎犯错。”

He made a note that the second half of April will be a significant period of risky assets as U.S. tax payments have eliminated liquidity. The Fed started Quantitative Tightening (QT), which led to a decrease in the money supply and the Treasury’s General Account (TGA), which is basically the government’s checking account, is pending to be used.

他指出，4 月下半月将是风险资产的重要时期，因为美国纳税已经消除了流动性。美联储开始量化紧缩（QT），导致货币供应量减少，而财政部的普通账户（TGA）（基本上是政府的支票账户）即将动用。

The Fed Meeting is scheduled for May 1 and the changes will be implemented from May 1. He expects that the Fed meeting will reduce the pace of money supply tightening and the Treasury from the TGA is anticipated to release a liquidity flow of an additional $1 Trillion into the system.

美联储会议定于5月1日举行，这些变化将从5月1日起实施。他预计，美联储会议将放慢货币供应紧缩的步伐，财政部预计TGA将额外释放1万亿美元的流动性进入系统。

Hayes said that he will halt his trading activities until May due to the upcoming halving and the Fed and Treasury’s bag of tricks.

海耶斯表示，由于即将到来的减半以及美联储和财政部的一系列伎俩，他将停止交易活动直到五月。

In a year, Bitcoin has increased over 60% from a value of approximately $42,000 to an approximately $71,000, as recorded in the media.

据媒体报道，一年内，比特币的价值从约 42,000 美元上涨至约 71,000 美元，涨幅超过 60%。

Greed Analysis on Bitcoin

There has been an observed increase in market sentiment as measured by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index. To stay in the Greed, it needs a score of 50 out of a possible of 100 or above after January 27.

比特币的贪婪分析根据加密货币恐惧和贪婪指数衡量，市场情绪明显增加。要留在“贪婪”中，1 月 27 日之后得分需要达到 50 分（满分 100 分）或以上。

On April 9, the chart showed extreme greed at a score of 80, an increase from the score of 76. 

4 月 9 日，该图表显示极度贪婪，得分为 80，比 76 分有所上升。

Source: Alternative.me

来源：Alternative.me

In the beginning of the year, the score was standing at 65, meaning Greed, but then marked a high of 90 on March 5. This high is the highest in two years.

今年年初，该分数为65分，即“贪婪”，但在3月5日达到了90分的高点，这是两年来的最高分。

In the end, Hayes specified that if the liquidity scenarios he considered and theorized came true, it would substantially increase his confidence in the market.

最后，海耶斯指出，如果他考虑和理论化的流动性情景成为现实，这将大大增强他对市场的信心。

He concluded that “If I miss a few percentage points of gains but definitely avoid losses for my portfolio and lifestyle, that is an acceptable outcome.” 

他的结论是：“如果我错过了几个百分点的收益，但绝对避免了我的投资组合和生活方式的损失，那是一个可以接受的结果。”