加密貨幣投機者在空投暴利上押下重註，瞄準下一個十億美元協議

加密貨幣投機者正急切地押注哪個價值數十億美元的協議將在 6 月 30 日之前宣布代幣空投。 Polymarket 平台已累積了 40 萬美元的賭注，有 23 個不同的網路和平台競爭。已有四家平台確認空投，為投資者帶來豐厚收益。現在人們的注意力集中在 LayerZero 和 Eigenlayer 等大肆宣傳的平台上，這些平台吸引了巨大的投資。 Eigenlayer 是一種重質押工具，引起了最多的猜測，6 月 30 日空投的賭注超過 56,000 美元，機率為 66%。

Crypto Speculators Stake Big on Airdrop Windfall, Betting on Next Billion-Dollar Protocol

加密貨幣投機者在空投意外之財上投入巨資，押注下一個十億美元的協議

A significant financial wager is unfolding within the crypto market, with speculators placing sizable bets on the impending token airdrops of billion-dollar protocols. Airdrops have become a lucrative practice, often bestowing thousands of dollars' worth of new assets upon users.

加密貨幣市場正在展開一場重大的金融賭注，投機者對即將到來的數十億美元協議的代幣空投下了相當大的賭注。空投已成為一種有利可圖的做法，通常會向用戶贈送價值數千美元的新資產。

The "Airdrops by June 30?" market, hosted on Polymarket, has amassed an impressive $400,000 in stakes. Although modest in comparison to the platform's U.S. presidential election market, which boasts over $105 million in bets, this figure represents a substantial investment in crypto prediction markets.

“6月30日之前空投？”託管在 Polymarket 上的 Market 已經累積了令人印象深刻的 40 萬美元的股份。儘管與該平台的美國總統選舉市場（其賭注超過 1.05 億美元）相比，這個數字並不高，但這一數字代表了對加密貨幣預測市場的大量投資。

The wagering pool is spread across 23 contenders, encompassing networks, platforms, and layer 2 solutions that have demonstrated active user engagement for a minimum of two months. Among the contenders, four have already confirmed upcoming airdrops, netting substantial gains for speculators who placed bets as early as February. Solana NFT marketplace Tensor, real estate exchange platform Parcl, derivatives platform Drift, and restaking platform Swell have collectively distributed airdrop rewards, yielding returns of up to 80% for early backers.

投注池分佈在 23 個競爭者中，包括網路、平台和第 2 層解決方案，這些解決方案已表現出至少兩個月的活躍用戶參與度。在這些競爭者中，有四家已經確認即將進行空投，這為早在 2 月就下注的投機者帶來了可觀的收益。 Solana NFT 市場 Tensor、房地產交易平台 Parcl、衍生性商品平台 Drift 和重質押平台 Swell 共同發放空投獎勵，為早期支持者帶來高達 80% 的回報。

The spotlight now falls upon highly anticipated platforms such as LayerZero, a multichain network, and Friend.Tech, a social finance application. LayerZero, which has garnered nearly $100,000 in bets, is poised to release a token by the end of April, with market odds suggesting a mere 2% probability. Each successful prediction yields a $1 payout.

現在的焦點集中在備受期待的平台上，例如多鍊網路 LayerZero 和社交金融應用程式 Friend.Tech。 LayerZero 已獲得近 10 萬美元的賭注，準備在 4 月底之前發行代幣，市場賠率表明可能性僅為 2%。每次成功的預測都會產生 1 美元的獎勵。

LayerZero has previously announced airdrop plans for the first half of 2024, although details remain scarce. Blast and Friend.Tech have received modest wagers of $30,000, likely driven by expectations of reward points programs that grant numerical value based on platform activity, with the promise of future token rewards.

LayerZero 先前曾宣布 2024 年上半年的空投計劃，但細節仍然很少。 Blast 和 Friend.Tech 收到了 30,000 美元的適度賭注，這可能是由於獎勵積分計劃的預期推動的，該獎勵積分計劃根據平台活動授予數值，並承諾未來提供代幣獎勵。

However, the most significant speculation has centered on Eigenlayer, a restaking tool. Over $56,000 has been wagered on its token release before June 30, with a 66% probability assigned by the market. A separate market, expiring on April 30, has attracted even greater investment ($63,000) despite a lower 17% chance of an airdrop.

然而，最重要的猜測集中在 Eigenlayer，一種重新抵押工具。 6 月 30 日之前其代幣發行的賭注已超過 56,000 美元，市場分配的機率為 66%。 4 月 30 日到期的一個單獨市場吸引了更多投資（63,000 美元），儘管空投的可能性較低，為 17%。

Beyond predicting the timing of airdrops, speculators are also betting on the post-release valuation of Eigenlayer. A separate market allows wagers on Eigenlayer's market capitalization, ranging from no token launch to a hypothetical $40 billion market cap.

除了預測空投時間之外，投機者還押注 Eigenlayer 發布後的估值。一個單獨的市場允許對 Eigenlayer 的市值進行押注，範圍從不發行代幣到假設的 400 億美元市值。

Layer 2 solutions are supplementary networks or infrastructures built upon primary blockchains like Ethereum, enhancing scalability and transaction speed. Restaking has emerged as a thriving sector within crypto, offering users an opportunity to utilize their ether holdings across diverse protocols beyond the Ethereum blockchain.

第 2 層解決方案是基於以太坊等主要區塊鏈構建的補充網路或基礎設施，可提高可擴展性和交易速度。重新抵押已成為加密貨幣領域的一個蓬勃發展的領域，為用戶提供了在以太坊區塊鏈之外的各種協議中利用其以太幣持有量的機會。

Data reveals a surge in value locked on platforms like Eigenlayer, exceeding $13 billion in just nine months. This growth is attributed to marginally higher interest rates on deposits compared to conventional ETH staking and the anticipation of future token distributions.

數據顯示，Eigenlayer 等平台鎖定的價值在短短 9 個月內就超過了 130 億美元。這種增長歸因於與傳統 ETH 質押相比存款利率略高以及對未來代幣分配的預期。

Airdrops have captivated prediction markets due to their potential for substantial financial rewards. Investors seeking to optimize their returns may consider studying current market sentiment and predictions to inform their decisions regarding platform investments.

空投因其潛在的可觀經濟回報而吸引了預測市場。尋求優化回報的投資者可以考慮研究當前的市場情緒和預測，以告知他們有關平台投資的決策。

In a separate development, Polymarket has launched a prediction market on the possibility of March 2024 being the hottest March on record. A $212,000 bet hinges on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index exceeding an increase of 1.37°C, with speculators assigning a 72% probability.

在另一項開發中，Polymarket 推出了一個預測市場，預測 2024 年 3 月可能成為有史以來最熱的 3 月。 212,000 美元的賭注取決於全球陸地-海洋溫度指數增幅超過 1.37°C，投機者的機率為 72%。

Meanwhile, Susquehanna International Group, a Wall Street powerhouse, has established a trading desk dedicated to "events contracts." This initiative aims to attract investors interested in betting on non-traditional financial assets. The platform chosen for facilitating these bets is Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated platform with limits typically set at $25,000, although larger bets of up to $7 million are now permitted for select investors. Kalshi is currently engaged in a legal dispute with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regarding the legality of election betting.

同時，華爾街巨頭薩斯奎哈納國際集團(Susquehanna International Group)設立了一個專門從事「事件合約」的交易櫃檯。該舉措旨在吸引有興趣押注非傳統金融資產的投資者。為促進這些賭注而選擇的平台是 Kalshi，這是一個受美國監管的平台，限額通常設定為 25,000 美元，但現在允許特定投資者進行高達 700 萬美元的更大賭注。卡爾希目前正與商品期貨交易委員會就選舉博彩的合法性發生法律糾紛。