加密货币投机者在空投暴利上押下重注，瞄准下一个十亿美元协议

加密货币投机者正急切地押注哪个价值数十亿美元的协议将在 6 月 30 日之前宣布代币空投。 Polymarket 平台已积累了 40 万美元的赌注，有 23 个不同的网络和平台参与竞争。已有四家平台确认空投，为投资者带来丰厚收益。现在人们的注意力集中在 LayerZero 和 Eigenlayer 等大肆宣传的平台上，这些平台吸引了巨大的投资。 Eigenlayer 是一种重质押工具，引起了最多的猜测，6 月 30 日空投的赌注超过 56,000 美元，概率为 66%。

Crypto Speculators Stake Big on Airdrop Windfall, Betting on Next Billion-Dollar Protocol

加密货币投机者在空投意外之财上投入巨资，押注下一个十亿美元的协议

A significant financial wager is unfolding within the crypto market, with speculators placing sizable bets on the impending token airdrops of billion-dollar protocols. Airdrops have become a lucrative practice, often bestowing thousands of dollars' worth of new assets upon users.

加密货币市场正在展开一场重大的金融赌注，投机者对即将到来的数十亿美元协议的代币空投下了相当大的赌注。空投已成为一种有利可图的做法，通常会向用户赠送价值数千美元的新资产。

The "Airdrops by June 30?" market, hosted on Polymarket, has amassed an impressive $400,000 in stakes. Although modest in comparison to the platform's U.S. presidential election market, which boasts over $105 million in bets, this figure represents a substantial investment in crypto prediction markets.

“6月30日之前空投？”托管在 Polymarket 上的 Market 已经积累了令人印象深刻的 400,000 美元的股份。尽管与该平台的美国总统选举市场（其赌注超过 1.05 亿美元）相比，这个数字并不高，但这一数字代表了对加密货币预测市场的大量投资。

The wagering pool is spread across 23 contenders, encompassing networks, platforms, and layer 2 solutions that have demonstrated active user engagement for a minimum of two months. Among the contenders, four have already confirmed upcoming airdrops, netting substantial gains for speculators who placed bets as early as February. Solana NFT marketplace Tensor, real estate exchange platform Parcl, derivatives platform Drift, and restaking platform Swell have collectively distributed airdrop rewards, yielding returns of up to 80% for early backers.

投注池分布在 23 个竞争者中，包括网络、平台和第 2 层解决方案，这些解决方案已表现出至少两个月的活跃用户参与度。在这些竞争者中，有四家已经确认即将进行空投，这为早在 2 月份就下注的投机者带来了可观的收益。 Solana NFT 市场 Tensor、房地产交易平台 Parcl、衍生品平台 Drift 和重质押平台 Swell 共同发放空投奖励，为早期支持者带来高达 80% 的回报。

The spotlight now falls upon highly anticipated platforms such as LayerZero, a multichain network, and Friend.Tech, a social finance application. LayerZero, which has garnered nearly $100,000 in bets, is poised to release a token by the end of April, with market odds suggesting a mere 2% probability. Each successful prediction yields a $1 payout.

现在的焦点集中在备受期待的平台上，例如多链网络 LayerZero 和社交金融应用程序 Friend.Tech。 LayerZero 已获得近 10 万美元的赌注，准备在 4 月底之前发行代币，市场赔率表明可能性仅为 2%。每次成功的预测都会产生 1 美元的奖励。

LayerZero has previously announced airdrop plans for the first half of 2024, although details remain scarce. Blast and Friend.Tech have received modest wagers of $30,000, likely driven by expectations of reward points programs that grant numerical value based on platform activity, with the promise of future token rewards.

LayerZero 此前曾宣布 2024 年上半年的空投计划，但细节仍然很少。 Blast 和 Friend.Tech 收到了 30,000 美元的适度赌注，这可能是由于奖励积分计划的预期推动的，该奖励积分计划根据平台活动授予数值，并承诺未来提供代币奖励。

However, the most significant speculation has centered on Eigenlayer, a restaking tool. Over $56,000 has been wagered on its token release before June 30, with a 66% probability assigned by the market. A separate market, expiring on April 30, has attracted even greater investment ($63,000) despite a lower 17% chance of an airdrop.

然而，最重要的猜测集中在 Eigenlayer，一种重新抵押工具。 6 月 30 日之前其代币发行的赌注已超过 56,000 美元，市场分配的概率为 66%。 4 月 30 日到期的一个单独市场吸引了更多投资（63,000 美元），尽管空投的可能性较低，为 17%。

Beyond predicting the timing of airdrops, speculators are also betting on the post-release valuation of Eigenlayer. A separate market allows wagers on Eigenlayer's market capitalization, ranging from no token launch to a hypothetical $40 billion market cap.

除了预测空投时间之外，投机者还押注 Eigenlayer 发布后的估值。一个单独的市场允许对 Eigenlayer 的市值进行押注，范围从不发行代币到假设的 400 亿美元市值。

Layer 2 solutions are supplementary networks or infrastructures built upon primary blockchains like Ethereum, enhancing scalability and transaction speed. Restaking has emerged as a thriving sector within crypto, offering users an opportunity to utilize their ether holdings across diverse protocols beyond the Ethereum blockchain.

第 2 层解决方案是基于以太坊等主要区块链构建的补充网络或基础设施，可提高可扩展性和交易速度。重新抵押已成为加密货币领域的一个蓬勃发展的领域，为用户提供了在以太坊区块链之外的各种协议中利用其以太币持有量的机会。

Data reveals a surge in value locked on platforms like Eigenlayer, exceeding $13 billion in just nine months. This growth is attributed to marginally higher interest rates on deposits compared to conventional ETH staking and the anticipation of future token distributions.

数据显示，Eigenlayer 等平台上锁定的价值在短短 9 个月内就超过了 130 亿美元。这种增长归因于与传统 ETH 质押相比存款利率略高以及对未来代币分配的预期。

Airdrops have captivated prediction markets due to their potential for substantial financial rewards. Investors seeking to optimize their returns may consider studying current market sentiment and predictions to inform their decisions regarding platform investments.

空投因其潜在的可观经济回报而吸引了预测市场。寻求优化回报的投资者可以考虑研究当前的市场情绪和预测，以告知他们有关平台投资的决策。

In a separate development, Polymarket has launched a prediction market on the possibility of March 2024 being the hottest March on record. A $212,000 bet hinges on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index exceeding an increase of 1.37°C, with speculators assigning a 72% probability.

在另一项开发中，Polymarket 推出了一个预测市场，预测 2024 年 3 月可能成为有记录以来最热的 3 月。 212,000 美元的赌注取决于全球陆地-海洋温度指数增幅超过 1.37°C，投机者的概率为 72%。

Meanwhile, Susquehanna International Group, a Wall Street powerhouse, has established a trading desk dedicated to "events contracts." This initiative aims to attract investors interested in betting on non-traditional financial assets. The platform chosen for facilitating these bets is Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated platform with limits typically set at $25,000, although larger bets of up to $7 million are now permitted for select investors. Kalshi is currently engaged in a legal dispute with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regarding the legality of election betting.

与此同时，华尔街巨头萨斯奎哈纳国际集团(Susquehanna International Group)设立了一个专门从事“事件合约”的交易柜台。该举措旨在吸引有兴趣押注非传统金融资产的投资者。为促进这些赌注而选择的平台是 Kalshi，这是一个受美国监管的平台，限额通常设置为 25,000 美元，但现在允许特定投资者进行高达 700 万美元的更大赌注。卡尔希目前正与商品期货交易委员会就选举博彩的合法性发生法律纠纷。