加密貨幣市場暴跌，分析師挑戰衍生性商品影響

儘管最近加密貨幣市場下跌，但 Glassnode 分析師 James Check 表示，與先前的多頭不同，衍生性商品並不是主要原因。資金利率逐漸降溫，未平倉合約下降，以及現貨驅動疲軟和需求減少等其他因素被認為推動了拋售。

Cryptocurrency Market Plunges, But Analyst Disputes Derivative Influence

加密貨幣市場暴跌，但分析師質疑衍生性商品影響

Introduction

介紹

The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant decline, with Bitcoin (BTC) prices reaching a nine-week low below $57,000 on May 1st, shedding a further 4% on the day. This drop marks an 11% loss since the same time last week, raising concerns among investors. However, one analyst, James Check, argues that the current market dip is not primarily driven by derivatives markets, diverging from the prevailing narrative.

加密貨幣市場經歷了大幅下跌，比特幣 (BTC) 價格於 5 月 1 日觸及 57,000 美元以下的九週低點，當日進一步下跌 4%。此次下跌標誌著自上周同期以來下跌 11%，引發了投資者的擔憂。然而，一位分析師 James Check 認為，目前的市場下跌主要不是由衍生性商品市場驅動的，這與普遍的說法不同。

Market Dynamics

市場動態

Market dips and price corrections are common occurrences in the cryptocurrency space, but Check believes that the current situation is different from previous market slumps. He points to the absence of large-scale deleveraging events in the derivatives markets, a phenomenon that was prevalent during the 2021 bull market and several other occasions this year.

市場下跌和價格調整在加密貨幣領域是常見現象，但Check認為，目前的情況與以往的市場暴跌不同。他指出，衍生性商品市場沒有出現大規模去槓桿化事件，這種現像在2021年牛市和今年其他幾次場合都普遍存在。

Funding rates, which are fees charged by derivatives exchanges to maintain price parity between contracts and underlying assets, have also remained stable, suggesting a lack of aggressive liquidations that would typically trigger a sell-off. Additionally, Bitcoin futures Open Interest (OI) has declined over the past year, indicating a reduction in relative leverage.

融資利率（衍生性商品交易所為維持合約與標的資產之間的價格平價而收取的費用）也保持穩定，這表明缺乏通常會引發拋售的激進清算。此外，比特幣期貨未平倉合約（OI）在過去一年中有所下降，顯示相對槓桿率下降。

Analyst's Thesis

分析師論文

Based on these observations, Check asserts that derivatives markets are unlikely to be the dominant factor behind the current Bitcoin sell-off. Instead, he attributes the market weakness to spot-driven factors, primarily consisting of short-term selling and diminished demand.

基於這些觀察，Check 斷言衍生性商品市場不太可能成為當前比特幣拋售背後的主導因素。相反，他將市場疲軟歸因於現貨驅動因素，主要包括短期拋售和需求減少。

Market Sentiment

市場情緒

Despite the recent sell-off, technical analyst 'Rekt Capital' maintains a bullish outlook, suggesting that the market is entering a historically recurring re-accumulation phase. This view suggests that the current consolidation could lay the foundation for a subsequent bull run, with a potential peak in mid-September/October 2025.

儘管最近出現拋售，但技術分析師「Rekt Capital」仍保持看漲前景，顯示市場正進入歷史上反覆出現的重新累積階段。這種觀點表明，目前的盤整可能為隨後的多頭市場奠定基礎，並可能在 2025 年 9 月中旬/10 月達到高峰。

Market Overview

市場概況

As of writing, BTC is trading at $57,469, while Ethereum (ETH) has declined 2% to $2,920. Altcoins have exhibited mixed performance, with Binance Coin (BNB) and Toncoin (TON) experiencing more significant losses.

截至撰寫本文時，BTC 交易價格為 57,469 美元，而以太坊 (ETH) 下跌 2% 至 2,920 美元。山寨幣的表現參差不齊，幣安幣 (BNB) 和 Toncoin (TON) 的損失更為嚴重。

Conclusion

結論

While the cryptocurrency market has faced a recent downturn, analyst James Check challenges the notion that derivatives markets are the primary cause of the sell-off. Instead, he points to spot-driven factors as the more likely contributors. This differing perspective highlights the complex dynamics that drive cryptocurrency markets and serves as a reminder that market narratives are subject to reinterpretation and debate.

儘管加密貨幣市場最近面臨低迷，但分析師 James Check 對衍生性商品市場是拋售主要原因的觀點提出了質疑。相反，他指出現場驅動因素是更有可能的貢獻者。這種不同的觀點凸顯了推動加密貨幣市場的複雜動態，並提醒人們市場敘事可能會被重新詮釋和爭論。