加密货币市场暴跌，分析师挑战衍生品影响

尽管最近加密货币市场下跌，但 Glassnode 分析师 James Check 表示，与之前的牛市不同，衍生品并不是主要原因。资金利率逐渐降温，未平仓合约下降，以及现货驱动疲软和需求减少等其他因素被认为推动了抛售。

Cryptocurrency Market Plunges, But Analyst Disputes Derivative Influence

加密货币市场暴跌，但分析师质疑衍生品影响

Introduction

介绍

The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant decline, with Bitcoin (BTC) prices reaching a nine-week low below $57,000 on May 1st, shedding a further 4% on the day. This drop marks an 11% loss since the same time last week, raising concerns among investors. However, one analyst, James Check, argues that the current market dip is not primarily driven by derivatives markets, diverging from the prevailing narrative.

加密货币市场经历了大幅下跌，比特币 (BTC) 价格于 5 月 1 日触及 57,000 美元以下的九周低点，当日进一步下跌 4%。此次下跌标志着自上周同期以来下跌 11%，引发了投资者的担忧。然而，一位分析师 James Check 认为，当前的市场下跌主要不是由衍生品市场驱动的，这与普遍的说法不同。

Market Dynamics

市场动态

Market dips and price corrections are common occurrences in the cryptocurrency space, but Check believes that the current situation is different from previous market slumps. He points to the absence of large-scale deleveraging events in the derivatives markets, a phenomenon that was prevalent during the 2021 bull market and several other occasions this year.

市场下跌和价格调整在加密货币领域是常见现象，但Check认为，目前的情况与以往的市场暴跌不同。他指出，衍生品市场没有出现大规模去杠杆化事件，这种现象在2021年牛市和今年其他几次场合都普遍存在。

Funding rates, which are fees charged by derivatives exchanges to maintain price parity between contracts and underlying assets, have also remained stable, suggesting a lack of aggressive liquidations that would typically trigger a sell-off. Additionally, Bitcoin futures Open Interest (OI) has declined over the past year, indicating a reduction in relative leverage.

融资利率（衍生品交易所为维持合约与标的资产之间的价格平价而收取的费用）也保持稳定，这表明缺乏通常会引发抛售的激进清算。此外，比特币期货未平仓合约（OI）在过去一年中有所下降，表明相对杠杆率有所下降。

Analyst's Thesis

分析师论文

Based on these observations, Check asserts that derivatives markets are unlikely to be the dominant factor behind the current Bitcoin sell-off. Instead, he attributes the market weakness to spot-driven factors, primarily consisting of short-term selling and diminished demand.

基于这些观察，Check 断言衍生品市场不太可能成为当前比特币抛售背后的主导因素。相反，他将市场疲软归因于现货驱动因素，主要包括短期抛售和需求减少。

Market Sentiment

市场情绪

Despite the recent sell-off, technical analyst 'Rekt Capital' maintains a bullish outlook, suggesting that the market is entering a historically recurring re-accumulation phase. This view suggests that the current consolidation could lay the foundation for a subsequent bull run, with a potential peak in mid-September/October 2025.

尽管最近出现抛售，但技术分析师“Rekt Capital”仍保持看涨前景，表明市场正在进入历史上反复出现的重新积累阶段。这种观点表明，当前的盘整可能为随后的牛市奠定基础，并可能在 2025 年 9 月中旬/10 月达到峰值。

Market Overview

市场概况

As of writing, BTC is trading at $57,469, while Ethereum (ETH) has declined 2% to $2,920. Altcoins have exhibited mixed performance, with Binance Coin (BNB) and Toncoin (TON) experiencing more significant losses.

截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 57,469 美元，而以太坊 (ETH) 下跌 2% 至 2,920 美元。山寨币的表现参差不齐，币安币 (BNB) 和 Toncoin (TON) 的损失更为严重。

Conclusion

结论

While the cryptocurrency market has faced a recent downturn, analyst James Check challenges the notion that derivatives markets are the primary cause of the sell-off. Instead, he points to spot-driven factors as the more likely contributors. This differing perspective highlights the complex dynamics that drive cryptocurrency markets and serves as a reminder that market narratives are subject to reinterpretation and debate.

尽管加密货币市场最近面临低迷，但分析师 James Check 对衍生品市场是抛售主要原因的观点提出了质疑。相反，他指出现场驱动因素是更有可能的贡献者。这种不同的观点凸显了推动加密货币市场的复杂动态，并提醒人们市场叙事可能会被重新解释和争论。