核心PCE，預測和降低下注：解碼數據

分析最新的核心PCE數據，預測以及它們如何影響對未來利率降低的賭注。

Core PCE, Forecasts, and Cut Bets: Decoding the Data

核心PCE，預測和降低下注：解碼數據

Alright, Wall Street watchers! Let's break down what's happening with the Core PCE, those forecasts everyone's obsessing over, and the bets being placed on future interest rate cuts. It's a wild ride, but we'll make sense of it together.

好吧，華爾街觀察家！讓我們分解核心PCE發生的事情，每個人都痴迷的預測以及將未來利率降低的賭注放置。這是一次瘋狂的旅程，但我們會一起理解它。

The Core PCE: What's the Deal?

核心PCE：有什麼交易？

So, the August Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index just dropped, and guess what? It landed right on target! Core PCE, which strips out the volatile food and energy costs, rose by 0.2% month-over-month, hitting a 2.9% year-over-year clip. This is precisely what the analysts were expecting, and it's a slight cool-down from July's 0.3% monthly bump. Headline PCE, which includes everything, also played it cool with a 0.3% monthly and 2.7% annual increase. No big surprises there, folks.

因此，八月的核心個人消費支出（PCE）價格指數剛剛下降，猜猜是什麼？它落在了目標上！脫離揮發性食品和能源成本的Core PCE每月增長0.2％，達到2.9％的同比剪輯。這正是分析師所期望的，這是7月份的每月顛簸的涼爽。包括所有內容的標題PCE也以每月0.3％和2.7％的年增長為0.3％。那裡沒有大驚喜，伙計們。

Rate Cut Bets: Are They On?

降低賭注：他們在嗎？

Remember how Fed Chair Jerome Powell was playing it coy at the last FOMC meeting, kinda downplaying the certainty of more rate cuts? Well, this PCE report might just nudge those odds back up for a rate cut on October 29. The Fed already sliced rates by 25 basis points in September, their first move of 2025, citing “gradual disinflation” and “resilient consumer demand.” And the August spending data backs that up – personal income jumped 0.4%, and spending soared 0.5%, both beating expectations.

還記得美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）在上次FOMC會議上遇到的co y，有點淡化了削減稅率的確定性嗎？好吧，這份PCE報告可能只是在10月29日降低稅率的情況下將這些賠率恢復了。美聯儲在9月份已經將利率降低了25個基點，這是他們2025年的首次行動，理由是“逐漸消滅”和“彈性的消費者需求”。八月的支出數據備份 - 個人收入躍升了0.4％，支出飆升了0.5％，都超過了預期。

Plus, the University of Michigan's inflation expectations got a reality check downward, reinforcing the idea that inflation might not be as crazy as we thought it would be. And the labor market? Still kicking! Jobless claims are lower than expected, suggesting that easing up on the money ain't causing a hiring freeze.

另外，密歇根大學的通貨膨脹期望下降了現實，這加強了這樣一種觀念，即通貨膨脹可能不會像我們想像的那樣瘋狂。和勞動力市場？仍在踢！失業聲稱要低於預期，這表明減少貨幣並不會引起招聘凍結。

Market Reactions and the Bitcoin Rollercoaster

市場反應和比特幣過山車

This news comes at a time when markets are craving some chill vibes. The combo of a strong U.S. Dollar and uncertainty about future monetary policy had investors running scared, sending Bitcoin below $110k and the S&P 500 down over 1.6% in the past few days. Talk about a rollercoaster!

這個消息是在市場渴望一些寒意的時候出現的。在過去的幾天中，投資者卻害怕，投資者卻害怕，比特幣低於11萬美元，而標準普爾500指數低於1.6％。談論過山車！

Looking Ahead: Powell's Words and GDP Numbers

展望未來：鮑威爾的話和GDP號碼

Now, let's not forget that before the PCE data came out, everyone was waiting on pins and needles for a few key events. First, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was scheduled to speak, and his words were being dissected for any hints about future rate cuts. Then, we got the final revision of the Q2 GDP, which held steady at a solid 3.3% annualized growth rate. And of course, the weekly jobless claims offered another peek into the health of the labor market.

現在，不要忘記在PCE數據發布之前，每個人都在等待別針和針頭進行一些關鍵事件。首先，美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）計劃發表講話，他的言語是為了提示未來降低稅率的任何提示。然後，我們獲得了第二季度GDP的最終修訂，該版本的年度增長率為3.3％。當然，每週的失業者主張還向勞動力市場的健康提供了另一種窺視。

My Take: Cautious Optimism

我的看法：謹慎的樂觀

Okay, here's my two cents: While the Core PCE data is encouraging, suggesting inflation is behaving itself, we gotta stay frosty. The Fed will likely proceed with caution, balancing the need to support economic growth with the risk of letting inflation run wild. The market's reaction to all this? Expect more volatility. As we've seen with Bitcoin, things can change on a dime.

好的，這是我的兩分錢：雖然核心PCE數據令人鼓舞，這表明通貨膨脹在表現自己，但我們必須保持冷淡。美聯儲可能會謹慎行事，平衡支持經濟增長的必要性，並冒著通貨膨脹狂潮的風險。市場對所有這一切的反應？期望更多的波動。正如我們在比特幣中看到的那樣，一角錢可能會改變。

The Bottom Line

底線

So, there you have it – the Core PCE, the forecasts, and the cut bets, all tied up in a neat little package. Keep an eye on those economic indicators, listen closely to what the Fed is saying, and maybe, just maybe, we can all navigate this crazy market without losing our shirts. Until next time, stay savvy, folks!

因此，您可以使用它 - 核心PCE，預測和剪裁下注，都綁在一個整潔的小包裝中。請密切關注這些經濟指標，仔細聆聽美聯儲在說什麼，也許，也許我們都可以在這個瘋狂的市場中導航而不會失去襯衫。直到下一次，請保持精明，伙計們！