核心PCE，预测和降低下注：解码数据

分析最新的核心PCE数据，预测以及它们如何影响对未来利率降低的赌注。

Core PCE, Forecasts, and Cut Bets: Decoding the Data

核心PCE，预测和降低下注：解码数据

Alright, Wall Street watchers! Let's break down what's happening with the Core PCE, those forecasts everyone's obsessing over, and the bets being placed on future interest rate cuts. It's a wild ride, but we'll make sense of it together.

好吧，华尔街观察家！让我们分解核心PCE发生的事情，每个人都痴迷的预测以及将未来利率降低的赌注放置。这是一次疯狂的旅程，但我们会一起理解它。

The Core PCE: What's the Deal?

核心PCE：有什么交易？

So, the August Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index just dropped, and guess what? It landed right on target! Core PCE, which strips out the volatile food and energy costs, rose by 0.2% month-over-month, hitting a 2.9% year-over-year clip. This is precisely what the analysts were expecting, and it's a slight cool-down from July's 0.3% monthly bump. Headline PCE, which includes everything, also played it cool with a 0.3% monthly and 2.7% annual increase. No big surprises there, folks.

因此，八月的核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数刚刚下降，猜猜是什么？它落在了目标上！脱离挥发性食品和能源成本的Core PCE每月增长0.2％，达到2.9％的同比剪辑。这正是分析师所期望的，这是7月份的每月颠簸的凉爽。包括所有内容的标题PCE也以每月0.3％和2.7％的年增长为0.3％。那里没有大惊喜，伙计们。

Rate Cut Bets: Are They On?

降低赌注：他们在吗？

Remember how Fed Chair Jerome Powell was playing it coy at the last FOMC meeting, kinda downplaying the certainty of more rate cuts? Well, this PCE report might just nudge those odds back up for a rate cut on October 29. The Fed already sliced rates by 25 basis points in September, their first move of 2025, citing “gradual disinflation” and “resilient consumer demand.” And the August spending data backs that up – personal income jumped 0.4%, and spending soared 0.5%, both beating expectations.

还记得美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在上次FOMC会议上遇到的co y，有点淡化了削减税率的确定性吗？好吧，这份PCE报告可能只是在10月29日降低税率的情况下将这些赔率恢复了。美联储在9月份已经将利率降低了25个基点，这是他们2025年的首次行动，理由是“逐渐消灭”和“弹性的消费者需求”。八月的支出数据备份 - 个人收入跃升了0.4％，支出飙升了0.5％，都超过了预期。

Plus, the University of Michigan's inflation expectations got a reality check downward, reinforcing the idea that inflation might not be as crazy as we thought it would be. And the labor market? Still kicking! Jobless claims are lower than expected, suggesting that easing up on the money ain't causing a hiring freeze.

另外，密歇根大学的通货膨胀期望下降了现实，这加强了这样一种观念，即通货膨胀可能不会像我们想象的那样疯狂。和劳动力市场？仍在踢！失业声称要低于预期，这表明减少货币并不会引起招聘冻结。

Market Reactions and the Bitcoin Rollercoaster

市场反应和比特币过山车

This news comes at a time when markets are craving some chill vibes. The combo of a strong U.S. Dollar and uncertainty about future monetary policy had investors running scared, sending Bitcoin below $110k and the S&P 500 down over 1.6% in the past few days. Talk about a rollercoaster!

这个消息是在市场渴望一些寒意的时候出现的。在过去的几天中，投资者却害怕，投资者却害怕，比特币低于11万美元，而标准普尔500指数低于1.6％。谈论过山车！

Looking Ahead: Powell's Words and GDP Numbers

展望未来：鲍威尔的话和GDP号码

Now, let's not forget that before the PCE data came out, everyone was waiting on pins and needles for a few key events. First, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was scheduled to speak, and his words were being dissected for any hints about future rate cuts. Then, we got the final revision of the Q2 GDP, which held steady at a solid 3.3% annualized growth rate. And of course, the weekly jobless claims offered another peek into the health of the labor market.

现在，不要忘记在PCE数据发布之前，每个人都在等待别针和针头进行一些关键事件。首先，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）计划发表讲话，他的言语是为了提示未来降低税率的任何提示。然后，我们获得了第二季度GDP的最终修订，该版本的年度增长率为3.3％。当然，每周的失业者主张还向劳动力市场的健康提供了另一种窥视。

My Take: Cautious Optimism

我的看法：谨慎的乐观

Okay, here's my two cents: While the Core PCE data is encouraging, suggesting inflation is behaving itself, we gotta stay frosty. The Fed will likely proceed with caution, balancing the need to support economic growth with the risk of letting inflation run wild. The market's reaction to all this? Expect more volatility. As we've seen with Bitcoin, things can change on a dime.

好的，这是我的两分钱：虽然核心PCE数据令人鼓舞，这表明通货膨胀在表现自己，但我们必须保持冷淡。美联储可能会谨慎行事，平衡支持经济增长的必要性，并冒着通货膨胀狂潮的风险。市场对所有这一切的反应？期望更多的波动。正如我们在比特币中看到的那样，一角钱可能会改变。

The Bottom Line

底线

So, there you have it – the Core PCE, the forecasts, and the cut bets, all tied up in a neat little package. Keep an eye on those economic indicators, listen closely to what the Fed is saying, and maybe, just maybe, we can all navigate this crazy market without losing our shirts. Until next time, stay savvy, folks!

因此，您可以使用它 - 核心PCE，预测和剪裁下注，都绑在一个整洁的小包装中。请密切关注这些经济指标，仔细聆听美联储在说什么，也许，也许我们都可以在这个疯狂的市场中导航而不会失去衬衫。直到下一次，请保持精明，伙计们！