圈子，加密和高估的風險：紐約人

圓圈（CRCL）被高估了嗎？該博客文章涉及有關Circle的估值，監管障礙以及Stablecoin市場增長潛力的辯論。

Circle, Crypto, and Overvalued Risk: A New Yorker's Take

圈子，加密和高估的風險：紐約人

Circle (CRCL) is at the heart of the stablecoin market, but is it overvalued? Let's dissect the arguments from bulls and bears to see if Circle's valuation holds water.

Circle（CRCL）是Stablecoin市場的核心，但是被高估了嗎？讓我們剖析公牛和熊的論點，看看Circle的估值是否持有水。

USDC's Market Position: Boom or Bust?

USDC的市場地位：繁榮還是胸圍？

USDC's supply has been stagnant for months. While Tether (USDT) dominates, USDC holds the second spot, backed by institutional credibility. The GENIUS Act could legitimize USDC, unlocking demand from big players. However, giants like PayPal and Amazon eyeing their own stablecoins could squeeze margins.

USDC的供應已經停滯了幾個月。在Tether（USDT）統治的同時，USDC在機構信譽的支持下排名第二。 《天才法案》可以使USDC合法化，從而釋放了大型玩家的需求。但是，貝寶（Paypal）和亞馬遜（Amazon）這樣的巨人盯著自己的穩定幣可能會擠壓利潤。

Revenue Targets: Can Circle Deliver?

收入目標：Circle可以交付嗎？

The core debate is Circle's 2027 revenue target. Mizuho sees $3.3 billion, citing stagnant USDC, interest rate cuts, and rising distribution costs. Seaport is bullish, seeing USDC as a cross-border payments tool. Valuation-wise, Circle is priced as a growth disruptor, not a utility player. The key risk is commoditization.

核心辯論是Circle的2027年收入目標。瑞穗的票房為33億美元，援引停滯的USDC，降低利率和分銷成本的上漲。 Seaport是看好的，將USDC視為跨境支付工具。在估值方面，Circle的定價為增長破壞者，而不是公用事業玩家。關鍵風險是商品化。

Regulatory Clarity: Friend or Foe?

監管清晰度：朋友還是敵人？

The GENIUS Act is a must-win. Bulls see partnerships like Stripe's and potential crypto ETF inflows as tailwinds. Bears worry about stagnant supply and competition. Mizuho's target implies a $120 stock price, while Seaport's hits $230. Watch USDC supply growth and new partnerships post-GENIUS Act.

天才行為是必勝的。公牛將諸如Stripe的合作夥伴關係和潛在的加密ETF流入如尾風一樣。熊擔心供應和競爭停滯。瑞穗的目標意味著股價為120美元，而海港的股價上漲了230美元。觀看USDC的供應增長和新的合作夥伴關係後的天然化法案。

The Contrarian View: Is Mizuho Missing Something?

逆勢觀點：瑞穗是否缺少什麼？

Mizuho downgraded Circle, but a deeper look reveals a contrarian opportunity. Regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and strategic partnerships suggest the stock is undervalued. The GENIUS Act legitimizes USDC, aligning with Circle's practices. Amazon and JPMorgan are integrating USDC. Circle's Payments Network shifts to fee-based services, stabilizing revenue.

瑞穗降級了圈子，但更深的外觀揭示了逆勢機會。監管清晰度，機構採用和戰略合作夥伴關係表明該股票被低估了。 《天才法》使USDC合法化，與Circle的做法保持一致。亞馬遜和摩根大通正在整合USDC。 Circle的付款網絡轉移到基於費用的服務，穩定收入。

Self-Custody: A Growing Trend

自我顧客：增長的趨勢

With regulatory changes looming, self-custody wallets are gaining traction. Crypto Week in D.C. highlighted the importance of individual control over digital assets. Self-custody offers independence and resilience. Wallets like Best Wallet provide users with complete ownership and advanced features.

隨著調節性的變化迫在眉睫，自我顧客錢包正在受到關注。 DC中的加密周強調了個人對數字資產的控制的重要性。自我顧客提供獨立性和韌性。像最佳錢包這樣的錢包為用戶提供了完整的所有權和高級功能。

Investment Strategy: High Risk, High Reward?

投資策略：高風險，高獎勵？

Circle is a high-risk, high-reward play. Its valuation hinges on USDC becoming the default stablecoin for institutions. Speculative investors might see the upside. Others should wait for regulatory clarity. A banking license could give Circle a first-mover advantage. The stock is a buy for long-term investors, especially after dips.

Circle是一場高風險，高回報的遊戲。它的估值取決於USDC成為機構的默認穩定者。投機性投資者可能會看到上升空間。其他人應該等待監管清晰度。銀行許可證可以為Circle帶來首要優勢。該股票是長期投資者的買入，尤其是在下降之後。

Final Thoughts: The Future of Stablecoins

最終想法：Stablecoins的未來

Circle's fate depends on innovation and regulation. The next year will show if it's a disruptor or a cautionary tale. For investors, watch USDC supply, distribution costs, and new competitors. As they say in New York, it's a wild ride, but hold on tight!

Circle的命運取決於創新和監管。第二年將顯示這是一個破壞者還是警示性的故事。對於投資者，請觀看USDC供應，分銷成本和新競爭對手。正如他們在紐約所說的那樣，這是一次瘋狂的旅程，但要緊緊抓住！