查爾斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）預測，以太坊將在未來10至15年內不復存在

霍斯金森再次提出了一個預測，由於設計和生態系統中的根本弱點，以太坊可能在未來10至15年內不再存在。

Charles Hoskinson, a former co-creator of Ethereum and the founder of Cardano, has once again expressed optimism about Ethereum’s short-term survival.

以太坊的前共同創作者，卡爾達諾（Cardano）的創始人查爾斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）再次對以太坊的短期生存表示樂觀。

During a recent interview, Hoskinson made a prediction that Ethereum might cease to exist in the next 10 to 15 years because of the fundamental weaknesses in the design and ecosystem.

在最近的一次採訪中，霍斯金森（Hoskinson）預測，由於設計和生態系統的根本弱點，以太坊可能在未來10至15年內不再存在。

Highlighting what he sees as flaws in the consensus process, virtual machine, and accounting model, Hoskinson attacked the blockchain, saying that these are serious flaws that won’t last for ten to fifteen years. He added that if these structural problems were not tackled, the platform could come to its end.

Hoskinson強調了他認為在共識過程，虛擬機和會計模型中所視為缺陷的內容，攻擊了區塊鏈，稱這些是嚴重的缺陷，十到十五年就不會持續十到十五年。他補充說，如果未解決這些結構性問題，平台可能會結束。

Hoskinson’s comments come as the second-largest cryptocurrency continues to scale through upgrades such as Pectra and Fusaka, which are designed to enhance performance and reduce fees. Nevertheless, questions about the coin’s future still exist, especially as it had a 9.3% weekly price increase up to $1,743.

霍斯金森的評論是因為第二大加密貨幣繼續通過諸如Pectra和Fusaka之類的升級來擴展，這些升級旨在提高性能和降低費用。儘管如此，關於硬幣未來的問題仍然存在，尤其是因為它的每週價格上漲了9.3％，高達1,743美元。

Layer-2 Solutions Draining Ethereum’s Value

第2層解決方案耗盡以太坊的價值

The Cardano founder went on to criticize Ethereum’s reliance on layer-2 (L2) solutions, calling them “parasitic.” Moreover, he asserted that L2 networks like Arbitrum and Optimism are stealing value from Ethereum’s main chain.

Cardano創始人繼續批評以太坊對2層（L2）解決方案的依賴，稱它們為“寄生”。此外，他斷言，仲裁和樂觀等L2網絡正在從以太坊的主鏈中竊取價值。

Consequently, with more and more users drawing on L2s to be able to get things done faster and cheaper, the demand for ETH on the main network starts fading away. However, as Hoskinson pointed out, it also threatens Ethereum’s economic model.

因此，隨著越來越多的用戶借鑒L2，能夠更快，更便宜地完成事情，因此對ETH的需求開始逐漸消失。但是，正如霍斯金森指出的那樣，它也威脅到以太坊的經濟模式。

“L2s are sucking value from the main chain,” he stated, warning of potential long-term damage.

他說：“ L2是從主鏈中吸引的價值。”

The Ethereum L2 ecosystem has come a long long way with the likes of zk-rollups that deal with the scalability problems posed by the throughput of the main chain. However, with the introduction of L2 native token for the purpose of payment of fees and governance, the utility of ETH has decreased and one has started questioning its role in the ecosystem.

以太坊L2生態系統與ZK滾動相似，這些ZK滾動涉及主鏈吞吐量帶來的可伸縮性問題。但是，隨著為了支付費用和治理而引入L2本地令牌，ETH的效用已減少，並且已經開始質疑其在生態系統中的作用。

“We are running so much complexity with Ethereum, we continue to talk to the developers that are active in the community to help alleviate the interfaces across the stack and make sure everyone has the same access to those tools,” Hoskinson said. He likened it to the trajectory of Myspace and Blackberry, other tech giants who did not survive competition and poor internal management.

霍斯金森說：“我們與以太坊的複雜性非常複雜，我們繼續與活躍在社區中的開發人員進行交談，以幫助減輕堆棧中的界面，並確保每個人都可以訪問這些工具。”他將其比作Myspace和BlackBerry的軌跡，Myspace和Blackberry是其他無法在競爭和內部管理不佳的科技巨頭。

The Cardano founder also highlighted governance issues, predicting a “hostile governance split” that could fracture the Ethereum community. Cardano’s own scaling solutions, Hydra and Midnight sidechain for example, he pointed to as a more sustainable way forward.

Cardano創始人還強調了治理問題，預測了可能破裂以太坊社區的“敵對治理分裂”。例如，Cardano自己的縮放解決方案，Hydra和Midnight Sidechain，他指出是一個更可持續的前進方向。

Ethereum Fells Through Major Upgrades

以太坊通過重大升級而下降

Despite these critiques, the second-largest cryptocurrency is anything but stagnant. While the Pectra upgrade has been planned for early Q2 2025, the aim will be to fix the scalability issue with growing the validator set size and transaction efficiency. Later in the year the network will be further enhanced by the Fusaka upgrade.

儘管有這些批評，但第二大加密貨幣卻只是停滯不前。雖然已計劃在2025年代初期進行Pectra升級，但目的是通過提高驗證器集尺寸和交易效率來解決可伸縮性問題。在今年晚些時候，Fusaka升級將進一步增強該網絡。

These updates are a part of Ethereum’s broader plan to ensure that it continues to maintain its position as the most prominent blockchain platform. For instance, the recent Scroll upgrade promises up to 90 percent lower fees, which would make it more competitive.

這些更新是以太坊更廣泛計劃的一部分，以確保其繼續保持其作為最突出的區塊鏈平台的地位。例如，最近的捲軸升級承諾將降低90％的費用，這將使其更具競爭力。

However, Hoskinson remains skeptical. He urged Ethereum developers to adopt a “telescoping protocol design” similar to Cardano’s Ouroboros-Leios and to consider shifting to the RISC-V instruction set for better efficiency. “You have to solve your technological problems,” he said, criticizing Ethereum’s proof-of-stake implementation.

但是，霍斯金森仍然持懷疑態度。他敦促以太坊開發人員採用類似於Cardano的Ouroboros-Leios類似的“伸縮協議設計”，並考慮轉移到RISC-V指令設置以提高效率。他說：“您必須解決自己的技術問題。”

To this end, Ethereum, despite Hoskinson’s warnings, remains to be the blockchain that’s currently dominating the decentralized finance (DeFi) space. As per data from CoinMarketCap, Ethereum’s market capitalization still is the second-largest in crypto market after Bitcoin.

為此，儘管霍斯金森的警告，以太坊仍然是目前主導分散金融（DEFI）空間的區塊鏈。根據CoinMarketCap的數據，以太坊的市值仍然是僅次於比特幣的加密貨幣市場的第二大。

Hoskinson went on to add that if Ethereum doesn't come up with a solution to the mentioned issues, it may have a number of its users migrating to Bitcoin DeFi platforms. The applications of DeFi on Bitcoin, like the Lightning Network for faster transactions, are becoming more and more popular.

霍斯金森（Hoskinson）繼續補充說，如果以太坊沒有提出解決上述問題的解決方案，它可能會有許多用戶遷移到比特幣Defi平台。 Defi在比特幣上的應用，例如用於快速交易的閃電網絡，正變得越來越流行。