查尔斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）预测，以太坊将在未来10至15年内不复存在

霍斯金森再次提出了一个预测，由于设计和生态系统中的根本弱点，以太坊可能在未来10至15年内不再存在。

Charles Hoskinson, a former co-creator of Ethereum and the founder of Cardano, has once again expressed optimism about Ethereum’s short-term survival.

以太坊的前共同创作者，卡尔达诺（Cardano）的创始人查尔斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）再次对以太坊的短期生存表示乐观。

During a recent interview, Hoskinson made a prediction that Ethereum might cease to exist in the next 10 to 15 years because of the fundamental weaknesses in the design and ecosystem.

在最近的一次采访中，霍斯金森（Hoskinson）预测，由于设计和生态系统的根本弱点，以太坊可能在未来10至15年内不再存在。

Highlighting what he sees as flaws in the consensus process, virtual machine, and accounting model, Hoskinson attacked the blockchain, saying that these are serious flaws that won’t last for ten to fifteen years. He added that if these structural problems were not tackled, the platform could come to its end.

Hoskinson强调了他认为在共识过程，虚拟机和会计模型中所视为缺陷的内容，攻击了区块链，称这些是严重的缺陷，十到十五年就不会持续十到十五年。他补充说，如果未解决这些结构性问题，平台可能会结束。

Hoskinson’s comments come as the second-largest cryptocurrency continues to scale through upgrades such as Pectra and Fusaka, which are designed to enhance performance and reduce fees. Nevertheless, questions about the coin’s future still exist, especially as it had a 9.3% weekly price increase up to $1,743.

霍斯金森的评论是因为第二大加密货币继续通过诸如Pectra和Fusaka之类的升级来扩展，这些升级旨在提高性能和降低费用。尽管如此，关于硬币未来的问题仍然存在，尤其是因为它的每周价格上涨了9.3％，高达1,743美元。

Layer-2 Solutions Draining Ethereum’s Value

第2层解决方案耗尽以太坊的价值

The Cardano founder went on to criticize Ethereum’s reliance on layer-2 (L2) solutions, calling them “parasitic.” Moreover, he asserted that L2 networks like Arbitrum and Optimism are stealing value from Ethereum’s main chain.

Cardano创始人继续批评以太坊对2层（L2）解决方案的依赖，称它们为“寄生”。此外，他断言，仲裁和乐观等L2网络正在从以太坊的主链中窃取价值。

Consequently, with more and more users drawing on L2s to be able to get things done faster and cheaper, the demand for ETH on the main network starts fading away. However, as Hoskinson pointed out, it also threatens Ethereum’s economic model.

因此，随着越来越多的用户借鉴L2，能够更快，更便宜地完成事情，因此对ETH的需求开始逐渐消失。但是，正如霍斯金森指出的那样，它也威胁到以太坊的经济模式。

“L2s are sucking value from the main chain,” he stated, warning of potential long-term damage.

他说：“ L2是从主链中吸引的价值。”

The Ethereum L2 ecosystem has come a long long way with the likes of zk-rollups that deal with the scalability problems posed by the throughput of the main chain. However, with the introduction of L2 native token for the purpose of payment of fees and governance, the utility of ETH has decreased and one has started questioning its role in the ecosystem.

以太坊L2生态系统与ZK滚动相似，这些ZK滚动涉及主链吞吐量带来的可伸缩性问题。但是，随着为了支付费用和治理而引入L2本地令牌，ETH的效用已减少，并且已经开始质疑其在生态系统中的作用。

“We are running so much complexity with Ethereum, we continue to talk to the developers that are active in the community to help alleviate the interfaces across the stack and make sure everyone has the same access to those tools,” Hoskinson said. He likened it to the trajectory of Myspace and Blackberry, other tech giants who did not survive competition and poor internal management.

霍斯金森说：“我们与以太坊的复杂性非常复杂，我们继续与活跃在社区中的开发人员进行交谈，以帮助减轻堆栈中的界面，并确保每个人都可以访问这些工具。”他将其比作Myspace和BlackBerry的轨迹，Myspace和Blackberry是其他无法在竞争和内部管理不佳的科技巨头。

The Cardano founder also highlighted governance issues, predicting a “hostile governance split” that could fracture the Ethereum community. Cardano’s own scaling solutions, Hydra and Midnight sidechain for example, he pointed to as a more sustainable way forward.

Cardano创始人还强调了治理问题，预测了可能破裂以太坊社区的“敌对治理分裂”。例如，Cardano自己的缩放解决方案，Hydra和Midnight Sidechain，他指出是一个更可持续的前进方向。

Ethereum Fells Through Major Upgrades

以太坊通过重大升级而下降

Despite these critiques, the second-largest cryptocurrency is anything but stagnant. While the Pectra upgrade has been planned for early Q2 2025, the aim will be to fix the scalability issue with growing the validator set size and transaction efficiency. Later in the year the network will be further enhanced by the Fusaka upgrade.

尽管有这些批评，但第二大加密货币却只是停滞不前。虽然已计划在2025年代初期进行Pectra升级，但目的是通过提高验证器集尺寸和交易效率来解决可伸缩性问题。在今年晚些时候，Fusaka升级将进一步增强该网络。

These updates are a part of Ethereum’s broader plan to ensure that it continues to maintain its position as the most prominent blockchain platform. For instance, the recent Scroll upgrade promises up to 90 percent lower fees, which would make it more competitive.

这些更新是以太坊更广泛计划的一部分，以确保其继续保持其作为最突出的区块链平台的地位。例如，最近的卷轴升级承诺将降低90％的费用，这将使其更具竞争力。

However, Hoskinson remains skeptical. He urged Ethereum developers to adopt a “telescoping protocol design” similar to Cardano’s Ouroboros-Leios and to consider shifting to the RISC-V instruction set for better efficiency. “You have to solve your technological problems,” he said, criticizing Ethereum’s proof-of-stake implementation.

但是，霍斯金森仍然持怀疑态度。他敦促以太坊开发人员采用类似于Cardano的Ouroboros-Leios类似的“伸缩协议设计”，并考虑转移到RISC-V指令设置以提高效率。他说：“您必须解决自己的技术问题。”

To this end, Ethereum, despite Hoskinson’s warnings, remains to be the blockchain that’s currently dominating the decentralized finance (DeFi) space. As per data from CoinMarketCap, Ethereum’s market capitalization still is the second-largest in crypto market after Bitcoin.

为此，尽管霍斯金森的警告，以太坊仍然是目前主导分散金融（DEFI）空间的区块链。根据CoinMarketCap的数据，以太坊的市值仍然是仅次于比特币的加密货币市场的第二大。

Hoskinson went on to add that if Ethereum doesn't come up with a solution to the mentioned issues, it may have a number of its users migrating to Bitcoin DeFi platforms. The applications of DeFi on Bitcoin, like the Lightning Network for faster transactions, are becoming more and more popular.

霍斯金森（Hoskinson）继续补充说，如果以太坊没有提出解决上述问题的解决方案，它可能会有许多用户迁移到比特币Defi平台。 Defi在比特币上的应用，例如用于快速交易的闪电网络，正变得越来越流行。