貓債券，強制拋售和$ 17.5B的生產線：邊緣市場

歐洲監管機構正在審查UCITS資金內的貓債券17.5B，認為他們對散戶投資者來說太冒險了。潛在的強迫拋售織機。

Cat Bonds, Forced Sell-Offs, and $17.5B on the Line: A Market on Edge

貓債券，強制拋售和$ 17.5B的生產線：邊緣市場

European regulators are eyeing $17.5 billion in catastrophe bonds (cat bonds) held within UCITS funds, raising concerns about their suitability for retail investors and sparking fears of a potential forced sell-off. The market is on edge. Here's the lowdown.

歐洲監管機構正在關注UCITS資金中持有的175億美元的災難債券（CAT債券），這引起了人們對零售投資者的適用性的擔憂，並引發了人們對潛在強迫拋售的擔憂。市場處於邊緣。這是低點。

The European Regulatory Alert

歐洲監管警報

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has signaled to the European Commission that cat bonds might be too complex and risky for UCITS portfolios, which are designed for a broad audience of retail investors. ESMA believes these instruments, linked to extreme natural events, pose an inappropriate level of risk for non-professional savers. This affects a substantial portion of the global cat bond market.

歐洲證券和市場管理局（ESMA）向歐洲委員會表示，貓債券對於UCITS投資組合可能過於復雜和風險，這些投資組合是為散戶投資者而設計的。埃斯瑪（Esma）認為，這些工具與極端自然事件有關，對非專業儲蓄者構成了不適當的風險。這影響了全球貓債券市場的很大一部分。

ESMA cites technical and structural reasons for its warning. Cat bonds require a deep understanding of catastrophe modeling, climate physics, and risk transfer mechanisms between insurers and financial markets.

ESMA引用了警告的技術和結構原因。貓債券需要深入了解保險公司和金融市場之間的災難建模，氣候物理和風險轉移機制。

An Industry Divided

一個行業分裂

The warning issued by ESMA isn't universally embraced. Some, like Neuberger Berman and PGGM, agree with the regulator. Peter DiFiore, CEO at Neuberger Berman, questions the liquidity of these products, while Eveline Takken-Somers at PGGM points to systemic risks, noting a single event could significantly impact a portfolio.

ESMA發出的警告並非普遍接受。有些人，例如Neuberger Berman和PGGM，都同意監管機構。 Neuberger Berman的首席執行官Peter DiFiore質疑這些產品的流動性，而PGGM的Eveline Takken-Amers指出了系統性風險，指出一個事件可能會對投資組合產生重大影響。

Conversely, some managers defend keeping cat bonds in UCITS portfolios, citing their strong performance. Daniel Grieger, CIO at Plenum Investments, argues that cat bonds delivered solid returns even during the Covid pandemic and other economic disruptions. He believes ESMA's position contradicts the EU's goal of broadening financial options for small savers.

相反，一些經理以強勁的表現為烏西茨投資組合中的貓債券保存。 Plenum Investments CIO的Daniel Grieger認為，即使在Covid大流行和其他經濟中斷期間，貓債券也能帶來可靠的回報。他認為，ESMA的立場與歐盟的目標相矛盾，該目標是擴大小型儲蓄者的財務選擇。

The Potential Fallout

潛在的影響

An unfavorable decision could lead to massive sales, reducing liquidity and potentially affecting reinsurers’ financing conditions. Some managers might even withdraw from this asset class entirely, causing a contraction of supply. The European Commission is expected to consult and review technical and political arguments before making a decision.

不利的決定可能會導致大量銷售，減少流動性並可能影響再保險公司的融資條件。一些經理甚至可能會完全退出此資產類別，從而導致供應收縮。在做出決定之前，預計歐盟委員會應諮詢和審查技術和政治論據。

My Take

我的看法

While cat bonds can offer attractive returns, ESMA's concerns about their complexity and potential illiquidity for retail investors are valid. A forced sell-off could indeed destabilize the market, highlighting the need for careful consideration and perhaps stricter guidelines for these types of investments within retail-focused funds. It's a tricky situation, balancing access to diverse investment opportunities with protecting everyday investors from undue risk. It will be interesting to see how the cookie crumbles.

儘管貓債券可以提供有吸引力的回報，但ESMA對它們的複雜性和對零售投資者潛在的流動性的關注是有效的。強制拋售確實可能破壞市場穩定，強調需要仔細考慮的需求，並可能對以零售為重點的資金中的這類投資進行更嚴格的準則。這是一個棘手的情況，可以平衡獲得多種投資機會的機會，並保護日常投資者免受不當風險的侵害。看到餅乾如何崩潰將很有趣。

For now, we wait and see what the European Commission decides. One thing's for sure: the cat bond market is about to get a whole lot more interesting. Stay tuned!

目前，我們拭目以待，看看歐洲委員會的決定。可以肯定的是：貓債券市場將變得更加有趣。敬請關注！