新加拿大總理馬克·卡尼（Mark Carney）顯著增加了贏得下次聯邦大選的機率

新當選的加拿大總理馬克·卡尼（Mark Carney）最近贏得了自由黨的領導競賽，以取代賈斯汀·特魯多（Justin Trudeau），他在Polymarket Bettors眼中贏得了下一次聯邦大選的機率。

Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has dramatically increased his odds of winning the next federal election in the eyes of Polymarket bettors.

新當選的加拿大總理馬克·卡尼（Mark Carney）急劇增加了他在Polymarket Bettors眼中贏得下一次聯邦大選的機率。

Carney now has a 49% chance of winning the next Canadian election, compared to 26% a month ago. Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre's chances are at 51%, down from 72% in February.

卡尼現在有49％的機會贏得下次加拿大大選，而一個月前為26％。保守派反對派領袖皮埃爾·波利夫（Pierre Poilievre）的機會為51％，低於2月的72％。

The next Canadian federal election is scheduled to occur on Sunday, October 20, 2025. However, if the opposition Conservatives and NDP jointly vote against the minority Liberal government on a confidence motion after Parliament resumes from prorogation on March 24, requested by Trudeau on January 6 as he announced his resignation plans pending a new Liberal leader, the government would fall, triggering an election.

下次加拿大聯邦大選定於2025年10月20日星期日舉行。但是，如果反對派保守黨和新民主黨在3月24日恢復PROGAGITION的信心動議之後，由特魯多（Trudeau）在1月6日宣布辭職計劃的計劃後，將在3月24日恢復PROGAGINE後，將在3月24日恢復PROGAGIT，將在新的Liberal Leaders宣布一名新的自由領導人，那將是政府秋季，將於1月6日宣布，這將是一場精選，如果他宣布辭職計劃，那麼他將在3月24日恢復。

Carney closing the gap against Poilievre on Polymarket – despite a lag between prediction markets and the polls – is an interesting point.

卡尼（Carney）在預測市場和民意調查之間滯後了對Poilievre的差距，這是一個有趣的觀點。

It's also worth noting that the Conservatives are just one percentage point ahead of the Liberals, according to Canadian pollster Nanos Research. This is a big change from last month, when the Conservatives had a 15.8-point lead in a polling average by Responsive Envelope.

據加拿大民意測驗者納米研究（Nanos Research）稱，保守派僅比自由黨領先一個百分點。與上個月相比，這是一個很大的變化，當時保守黨通過響應式信封在投票平均水平上取得了15.8分的領先優勢。

This dramatic shift can be attributed to the U.S. trade threats, which have reportedly boosted Prime Minister Carney's chances in the upcoming election, as bettors on Polymarket are indicating.

這種戲劇性的轉變可以歸因於美國的貿易威脅，據報導，這已經提高了卡尼在即將到來的選舉中的機會，正如Polymarket上的投注者所表明的那樣。

As reported by the Financial Post, bettors on the prediction market platform now give Carney a 49% chance of winning the next election, a significant increase from the 26% odds he had a month ago.

正如《金融郵報》報導的那樣，預測市場平台上的投注者現在給卡尼帶來了49％的贏得下一次選舉的機會，比他一個月前的26％的賠率大幅增加。

In contrast, Poilievre's chances have decreased to 51%, down from the 72% he had in February.

相比之下，Poilievre的機會已經下降到51％，低於他2月份的72％。

This shift in odds aligns with recent polls that have shown a decrease in the Conservatives' lead and a convergence between the major parties.

賠率的這種轉變與最近的民意調查相吻合，這些民意調查顯示了保守黨的領先地位和主要政黨之間的融合。

"It's a perfect storm," said Greg Steele, a political scientist at the University of Toronto. "The Americans are threatening to close the border, the economy is slowing down, and people are starting to realize that they prefer Carney's business sense and central bank experience over Poilievre's bombastic style."

多倫多大學的政治學家格雷格·斯蒂爾（Greg Steele）說：“這是一場完美的風暴。” “美國人威脅要關閉邊界，經濟正在放緩，人們開始意識到，他們更喜歡卡尼的商業意識和中央銀行的經驗，而不是Poilievre的轟動性風格。”

This is all a bit of a contrast to last year's U.S. election, where prediction markets consistently showed that then-Republican candidate Donald Trump had a lead over his Democratic opponents.

這與去年的美國大選有點鮮明，在那裡預測市場始終表明當時的公共候選人唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）領導了他的民主對手。

The election result, as CoinDesk wrote in an editorial at the time, was only a surprise to those who get their information from CNN.

正如科德斯克（Coindesk）當時在社論中所寫的那樣，選舉結果對於那些從CNN獲取信息的人來說只是一個驚喜。

"The collective wisdom of the crowd on prediction markets saw Trump as the favorite throughout the campaign, and ultimately on Election Day," the editorial read. "This aligns with the thinking of economists, who have studied the role of prediction markets in political campaigns."

社論寫道：“在預測市場上，人群的集體智慧使特朗普在整個競選活動中是最愛，最終是選舉日。” “這與經濟學家的思想相吻合，他們研究了預測市場在政治運動中的作用。”

Crypto on the Canadian campaign trail?

加拿大競選步道上的加密？

Crypto doesn't seem to be a major plank of a hypothetical Canadian election. While Poilievre holds a Canadian-issued BTC ETF, according to his latest financial disclosure report, and has previously made pro-blockchain and crypto comments, most of the campaign rhetoric appears to be about the trade war.

加密似乎並不是假設的加拿大大選的主要木板。儘管Poilievre持有加拿大發行的BTC ETF，但根據他的最新財務披露報告，並以前曾發表過親塊和加密貨幣的評論，但大多數競選言論似乎都與貿易戰有關。

Likewise, Carney, who has made mixed if not skeptical comments on crypto in his role as Bank of England governor, hasn't yet spoken about the topic in his new role as Liberal leader.

同樣，卡尼（Carney）在擔任英格蘭銀行（Bank of England）州長的角色中對加密貨幣（Crypto）發表了混雜的評論，他尚未在他擔任自由領導人的新角色中談論這個話題。

At least one crypto exchange, Smart Bitcoin, is planning to accept contributions in crypto for both the Liberals and Conservatives.

至少有一個加密貨幣智能比特幣正計劃為自由主義者和保守派接受加密貨幣的貢獻。

"We believe that crypto donors should have the opportunity to contribute to the political parties and candidates of their choice," said the exchange's CEO, Ben Armstrong.

交易所首席執行官本·阿姆斯特朗（Ben Armstrong）說：“我們認為加密貨幣捐助者應該有機會為他們選擇的政黨和候選人做出貢獻。”

"We are reaching out to the major parties and candidates to offer them the chance to receive contributions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major cryptocurrencies."

“我們正在與主要政黨和候選人聯繫，為他們提供在比特幣，以太坊和其他主要加密貨幣中捐款的機會。”

The Liberals and Conservatives will need to apply for registration as a "third-party candidate" in order to receive contributions in crypto.

自由主義者和保守派將需要作為“第三方候選人”申請註冊，以便在加密貨幣中獲得捐款。

"We are committed to providing our users with the best possible experience, and we hope that this initiative will encourage more people to get involved in the political process."

“我們致力於為用戶提供最佳的經驗，我們希望這項倡議會鼓勵更多的人參與政治進程。”

It remains to be seen whether any of the major candidates will accept contributions in crypto. However, the option is now available, and it will be interesting to see if any of the candidates decide to accept.

是否有任何主要候選人會接受加密貨幣的貢獻還有待觀察。但是，該選項現已可用，有趣的是，看看是否有任何候選人決定接受。

This story was originally featured on Benzinga

這個故事最初是在本辛加的