加拿大10月經濟成長0.3%超出市場預期

渥太華（路透社）—週一的數據顯示，在石油和天然氣開採和製造業成長的帶動下，加拿大經濟 10 月成長 0.3%，超出市場預期，但 11 月國內生產毛額可能出現萎縮。

Canada's economy grew more than expected in October, expanding by 0.3% as oil and gas extraction and manufacturing drove gains, but gross domestic product likely contracted in November, data showed on Monday.

週一的數據顯示，由於石油和天然氣開採以及製造業的推動，加拿大10月份經濟成長超出預期，成長了0.3%，但11月份國內生產毛額可能出現萎縮。

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.2% month-over-month rise in October. September's growth rate was upwardly revised to 0.2% from an initial report of 0.1%, Statistics Canada (Statscan) data showed.

路透社調查的分析師先前預測 10 月環比成長 0.2%。加拿大統計局(Statscan)的數據顯示，9月份的成長率從最初報告的0.1%上調至0.2%。

The stronger than expected start to the fourth quarter and the upward revision to September's growth rate could assuage some concerns about Canada's economy.

第四季開局強於預期以及對 9 月成長率的上調可能會緩解對加拿大經濟的一些擔憂。

Growth in the third quarter missed the Bank of Canada's (BoC) forecast and the central bank said earlier this month that data suggested the economy may underperform its expectation in the last three months of 2024.

第三季的成長低於加拿大央行 (BoC) 的預測，央行本月稍早表示，數據顯示 2024 年最後三個月的經濟表現可能不如預期。

In a preliminary estimate for November, Statscan said GDP likely decreased by 0.1% as declines in sectors including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and transportation and warehousing were partially offset by increases in accommodation and food services and real estate and rental and leasing.

Statscan在11月份的初步估計中表示，GDP可能下降0.1%，因為採礦、採石、石油和天然氣開採以及運輸和倉儲等行業的下降被住宿和食品服務以及房地產和租賃等行業的增長部分抵消。

If November's forecast is confirmed and GDP remains unchanged in December, the economy would fall short of the BoC's 2% growth projection for the fourth quarter.

如果 11 月的預測得到證實，且 12 月 GDP 保持不變，那麼經濟將低於加拿大央行第四季 2% 的成長預測。

Growth in October was driven a rebound in the goods-producing industry, which rose 0.9% in October after shrinking for four consecutive months, Statistics Canada (Statscan) data showed. The services-producing industries edged up 0.1%.

加拿大統計局(Statscan)的數據顯示，10月份的成長是由商品生產產業的反彈推動的，該產業在連續四個月萎縮後，10月份成長了0.9%。服務業小幅成長 0.1%。

Within the goods-producing industry, the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector expanded 2.4% after three straight months of declines, Statscan data showed.

Statscan 數據顯示，在商品生產行業中，採礦、採石以及石油和天然氣開採行業在連續三個月下降後增長了 2.4%。

Manufacturing rose 0.3% in October driven by an increase in non-durable goods manufacturing.

受非耐久財製造業成長的推動，10 月製造業成長 0.3%。

The central bank, in part to help address slower growth, lowered its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.25% earlier in December and indicated further reductions would be more gradual. The bank will release fresh forecasts along with its next rate decision on Jan. 29, before Statscan's next GDP report.

央行在 12 月初將關鍵政策利率下調 50 個基點至 3.25%，部分是為了幫助應對成長放緩的問題，並表示進一步降息將更加漸進。該銀行將於 1 月 29 日、Statscan 發布下一份 GDP 報告之前發布新的預測以及下一個利率決定。

The BoC has cumulatively slashed interest rates by 175 bps since June as inflation returned to target, and money markets see a roughly 50% chance of 25 bps cut in January.

隨著通膨回歸目標，加拿大央行自 6 月以來已累積降息 175 個基點，貨幣市場預計 1 月降息 25 個基點的可能性約為 50%。