在預算之前，西塔拉曼的儀表板上閃現出一些積極的東西

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Budget 2024: A few positives blink on Sitharaman's dashboard before budget

2024 年預算：預算前西塔拉曼的儀表板上閃現出一些正面因素

Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present the last full budget of the Narendra Modi 2.0 government on February 1. While the common man's expectations are sky high, the government has a herculean task at hand to balance fiscal prudence with populist measures. A look at some key data points that will influence the budget.

聯邦財政部長Nirmala Sitharaman 將於2 月1 日提交莫迪2.0 政府的最後一份完整預算。 。看看一些會影響預算的關鍵數據點。

Before budget, a few positives blink on Sitharaman's dashboard

在預算之前，西塔拉曼的儀表板上閃現出一些積極的東西

After two years of below-par growth, the Indian economy is finally set to clock a higher GDP number in the current fiscal. The Economic Times Now Network Survey of Economists pegs the GDP growth for FY24 at 6.3%. While the first advance estimates had put the number at 6.5%, economists expect the slowdown in the third quarter to drag down the full-year number. A higher GDP growth number will give the government more leeway to increase its spending on key sectors.

經過兩年低於標準的成長後，印度經濟最終將在本財年實現更高的 GDP 數據。 《經濟時報》經濟學家網路調查將 2024 財年 GDP 成長率為 6.3%。雖然初步預測該數字為 6.5%，但經濟學家預計第三季經濟放緩將拖累全年數字。較高的 GDP 成長率將使政府有更多空間增加關鍵部門的支出。

The other positive for the government is the lower inflation number. After remaining stubbornly high for most of 2022, CPI inflation finally cooled below the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance band of 6% in December. While food inflation continues to remain sticky, economists expect inflation to moderate further in the coming months, helped by a favourable base effect and the central bank's rate hikes. Lower inflation will help the government keep a lid on prices and reduce the pressure on household budgets.

對政府來說另一個積極的因素是較低的通貨膨脹率。在 2022 年大部分時間居高不下之後，CPI 通膨終於在 12 月降至印度儲備銀行 6% 的上限以下。雖然食品通膨持續保持高位，但經濟學家預計，在有利的基數效應和央行升息的幫助下，未來幾個月通膨將進一步放緩。較低的通貨膨脹將有助於政府控制物價並減輕家庭預算的壓力。

However, not everything is hunky-dory on the economic front. After two years of strong recovery, merchandise exports are finally set to contract in the current fiscal. The ET Now Network Survey of Economists pegs merchandise exports at $420 billion for FY24, down from $432 billion in the previous fiscal. While the government has been targeting a $500 billion merchandise export number for some time now, the global slowdown and weak external demand have made it difficult to achieve this goal.

然而，經濟方面並非一切都一帆風順。經過兩年的強勁復甦，本財年商品出口最終將出現收縮。 ET Now 經濟學家網路調查預計 2024 財年商品出口額為 4,200 億美元，低於上一財年的 4,320 億美元。儘管政府長期以來一直將商品出口目標定為5,000億美元，但全球經濟放緩和外部需求疲軟使得這一目標難以實現。

The other concern for the government is the widening trade deficit. After hitting a record high of $32 billion in July, the merchandise trade deficit has narrowed in recent months, helped by a decline in imports. However, the trade deficit for the full fiscal is still expected to be higher than the previous year's number. A wider trade deficit puts pressure on the rupee and can lead to capital outflows.

政府的另一個擔憂是貿易逆差擴大。商品貿易逆差在 7 月創下 320 億美元的歷史新高後，近幾個月在進口下降的幫助下有所收窄。不過，預計整個財年的貿易逆差仍將高於去年的數字。貿易逆差擴大會給盧比帶來壓力，並可能導致資本外流。

Overall, the Indian economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in FY24, with inflation moderating and merchandise exports contracting. While a few positives blink on the dashboard before the budget, the government has a tough task at hand to balance fiscal prudence with populist measures.

整體而言，預計 2024 財年印度經濟成長率將放緩，通膨放緩，商品出口收縮。儘管預算案公佈前出現了一些正面因素，但政府面臨平衡財政審慎與民粹主義措施的艱鉅任務。