BTC短期持有人將推動下一個市場更正

投資者團體可以在很大程度上決定比特幣的價格如何變化，而短期持有人非常重要。

Investor groups play a crucial role in determining the price movements of Bitcoin, especially short-term holders who generate trends that can be used to predict upcoming changes. Their behavior is measured mainly through Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which showcases the percentage of unrealized profit compared to the current Bitcoin price. This provides an insight into whether those holding coins for a few days are collectively losing or gaining money.

投資者團體在確定比特幣的價格變動中發揮了至關重要的作用，尤其是短期持有人產生趨勢，這些趨勢可用於預測即將發生的變化。它們的行為主要是通過未實現的盈利/損失（NUPL）來衡量的，該淨利潤/損失（NUPL）與當前比特幣價格相比展示了未實現的利潤百分比。這為那些持有硬幣幾天的人集體損失還是賺錢的人提供了深入的了解。

Now, short-term profit remains at around 27%. For the past four years, whenever this measure goes above 40%, there has often been a rush to sell. Due to this selling activity, the price of these cryptocurrencies usually drops, making forty percent an important level.

現在，短期利潤仍保持在27％左右。在過去的四年中，每當這項措施超過40％時，通常都會急於出售。由於這種銷售活動，這些加密貨幣的價格通常會下降，使40％成為重要水平。

This situation continues to happen, meaning those with high profits often remove their coins, affecting the market’s trend.

這種情況仍在繼續發生，這意味著那些利潤高的人經常消除硬幣，從而影響市場的趨勢。

With the help of the NUPPL metric, you can spot coming market corrections based on investor sentiment in the short run. By knowing this, investors can expect when a rally may stop due to profit-taking.

在NUPPL指標的幫助下，您可以在短期內根據投資者情緒發現即將到來的市場糾正。通過知道這一點，投資者可以期望何時由於獲利而停止集會。

Projected Timeline to Reach the Critical Profit Threshold and Market Impact

預計時間表以達到關鍵的利潤門檻和市場影響

The speed of unrealized profit increase among those who hold for a short time reveals how soon this relevant threshold could be met. The NUPL is growing every day by a constant amount.

在短時間內持有的人中，未實現的利潤速度提高表明可以滿足這個相關閾值的時間。 NUPL每天都在持續增長。

Until then, it will take slightly more than two weeks for the profit indicator to reach 40%, after which selling activity usually rises. According to this timeline, mid-June 2025 is close to when we will likely see short-term holders start to cash out.

在此之前，利潤指標達到40％，銷售活動通常會上升，這將需要略有兩週的時間。根據這個時間表，2025年6月中旬即將看到短期持有人開始兌現。

This will be driven by their highest unrealized profits. Because of this, many regard the hour as meaningful, as it may lead to greater market swings or even a correction due to more sellers participating.

這將由他們最高未實現的利潤驅動。因此，許多人認為這一小時可能會導致更大的市場波動，甚至導致更多的賣家參與。

It is worth noting that the forecast assumes unrealized profits will increase in a straight line. Because markets are always changing, unforeseen incidents or political actions can disrupt the usual patterns. So, although this chart is useful, investors should closely watch for sudden changes that can affect this course.

值得注意的是，預測假設未實現的利潤將在直線上增加。因為市場一直在變化，所以不可預見的事件或政治行動會破壞通常的模式。因此，儘管此圖表很有用，但投資者應密切關注可能影響該課程的突然變化。

Market Outlook and Bitcoin Price Forecast

市場前景和比特幣價格預測

Combining what we have seen in short-term holder profit levels and historical Bitcoin trends, it is expected that the price will touch $162K in mid-June 2025. This forecast follows the current rise in unrealized profit, which usually reflects higher Bitcoin prices as holders expect further benefits.

將我們在短期持有人的利潤水平和歷史比特幣趨勢中看到的東西結合在一起，預計價格將在2025年6月中旬觸及162K $ 162K。這一預測是在目前未實現的利潤的上漲之後，這通常反映出比特幣價格上漲，因為持有者期望進一步的收益。

Historically, increases in the NUPL above its important threshold have often been followed by market corrections. It means that even though prices might go up a lot now, a fall often takes over, and sellers take advantage of the situation.

從歷史上看，NUPL高於其重要閾值的增加通常是市場更正。這意味著，即使價格現在可能上漲了很多，跌倒也經常接管，賣方利用了這種情況。

There is both a chance and a danger for investors when it comes to inflation. The price surge ahead is evidence of strong bullish movement which makes many more optimistic about Bitcoin’s near-term prospects. At the same moment, when profit is critical, sellers should care, as it might soon lead to a rise in selling activity.

在通貨膨脹方面，投資者既有機會又有危險。前方的價格飆升是強烈看漲運動的證據，這使許多人對比特幣的近期前景更加樂觀。同時，當利潤至關重要時，賣方應該關心，因為它可能很快會導致銷售活動的增加。

In the short term, traders can use this to time their market moves, and in the longer term, holders may find it just another example of changing market trends. With these fluctuations, using NUPL and related indicators as a guide helps us update our investment decisions with more self-assurance.

在短期內，交易者可以使用它來計時他們的市場移動，從而從長遠來看，持有人可能會發現它只是改變市場趨勢的另一個例子。隨著這些波動，使用NUPL和相關指標作為指導有助於我們更加自信地更新投資決策。

Navigating Bitcoin’s Upcoming Profit Peak and Price Surge

導航比特幣即將到來的利潤峰值和價格上漲

The profit that Bitcoin’s short-term holders have not yet claimed tells us much about current market views and actions. Now that the profits in the Bitcoin market are increasing sharply and are expected to reach a climax in mid-June 2025, its activity will likely increase. At an expected price of $162K, the market is seeing a rising tide. However, this could make investors feel more comfortable selling, which could disrupt price stability.

比特幣的短期持有人尚未聲稱的利潤向我們講述了當前的市場觀點和行動。既然比特幣市場的利潤急劇增加，預計將於2025年6月中旬達到高潮，其活動可能會增加。以預期的價格為16.2萬美元，市場正在漲潮。但是，這可能會使投資者感到更加自在，這可能會破壞價格穩定。

Using this metric, investors should review both the past and consider any unpredictable matters that might affect their investments. As a result, they are better prepared to make decisions since Bitcoin is continuously growing in the global financial world.

使用該指標，投資者應審查過去，並考慮可能影響其投資的任何不可預測的問題。結果，由於比特幣在全球金融界不斷增長，因此他們準備做出決策。