BTC正在失去「數位黃金」地位嗎？

比特幣與傳統避險資產黃金的相關性一直在穩步攀升，引發了人們對比特幣長期以來宣稱的獨立於傳統市場的質疑。

Bitcoin’s 60-day correlation with gold has been rising steadily, raising questions about the world’s largest cryptocurrency’s long-touted independence from traditional markets.

比特幣與黃金的 60 天相關性一直在穩步上升，引發了人們對這一全球最大加密貨幣長期宣揚的獨立於傳統市場的質疑。

Is BTC Losing Its “Digital Gold” Status?

BTC正在失去「數位黃金」地位嗎？

Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has shifted over time. In late 2023, the correlation turned negative, indicating opposite movements. However, recent months have shown a positive trend, albeit still low. As of May 30, the correlation stands at 0.17, a far cry from the 0.5 level seen in 2022.

比特幣與黃金的相關性隨著時間的推移而改變。 2023 年末，相關性轉為負值，表示走勢相反。然而，近幾個月顯示出積極的趨勢，儘管仍然較低。截至 5 月 30 日，相關性為 0.17，與 2022 年的 0.5 水準相去甚遠。

A chart from Kaiko illustrates this trend. The 60-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and gold, displayed in blue, shows a gradual increase from early 2024. In contrast, the 2022 levels, depicted by the red line, indicate higher correlation throughout the year.

Kaiko 的圖表說明了這個趨勢。比特幣和黃金之間的 60 天滾動相關性（以藍色顯示）顯示從 2024 年初開始逐漸增加。

The rising correlation could impact investment strategies. When assets are highly correlated, they offer poor diversification. For instance, an investment portfolio heavily weighted towards Bitcoin and gold might not provide optimal risk-adjusted returns compared to a more diversified portfolio.

相關性的上升可能會影響投資策略。當資產高度相關時，它們的多元化程度就很差。例如，與更多元化的投資組合相比，嚴重偏向比特幣和黃金的投資組合可能無法提供最佳的風險調整回報。

As a result, investors may need to reconsider their portfolio strategies, especially if they were initially drawn to Bitcoin’s low correlation with traditional assets.

因此，投資者可能需要重新考慮他們的投資組合策略，特別是如果他們最初被比特幣與傳統資產的低相關性所吸引。

Gold has experienced significant price movements in 2024. After peaking near $2,450 in May, the precious metal declined over 4% to trade at $2,328.20 on May 30.

黃金在 2024 年經歷了大幅價格波動。

This volatility could influence Bitcoin’s relationship with gold. If gold prices continue to shift, it might impact Bitcoin’s market behavior and, subsequently, investment strategies.

這種波動可能會影響比特幣與黃金的關係。如果金價持續變化，可能會影響比特幣的市場行為，進而影響投資策略。

Bitcoin’s Decentralization Under Threat

比特幣的去中心化受到威脅

One of the key selling points of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin has been their decentralized nature, operating outside the direct influence of government bodies.

比特幣等加密貨幣的主要賣點之一是其去中心化性質，不受政府機構的直接影響。

However, Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with gold, an asset deeply integrated into traditional financial systems, threatens to undermine this very principle.

然而，比特幣與黃金這種深深融入傳統金融體系的資產的相關性日益增強，有可能破壞這項原則。

As the correlation strengthens, BTC’s price movements become more closely tied to those of gold. This development could erode crypto’s appeal as a hedge against traditional markets and cast doubt on its role as a revolutionary financial instrument.

隨著相關性的增強，比特幣的價格走勢與黃金的價格走勢變得更加緊密。這一發展可能會削弱加密貨幣作為傳統市場對沖工具的吸引力，並使其作為革命性金融工具的作用受到質疑。

Moreover, the growing correlation between Bitcoin and gold also presents a diversification challenge for crypto investors. Traditionally, assets with low or negative correlations have been preferred for portfolio diversification. They tend to move independently, reducing overall risk.

此外，比特幣和黃金之間日益增強的相關性也為加密貨幣投資者帶來了多元化挑戰。傳統上，低相關性或負相關性的資產是投資組合多元化的首選。他們傾向於獨立行動，從而降低整體風險。

However, as Bitcoin’s correlation with gold increases, its potential to provide diversification benefits within a broader investment portfolio may be compromised.

然而，隨著比特幣與黃金的相關性增強，其在更廣泛的投資組合中提供多元化收益的潛力可能會受到損害。