BTC正在失去“数字黄金”地位吗？

比特币与传统避险资产黄金的相关性一直在稳步攀升，引发了人们对比特币长期以来宣称的独立于传统市场的质疑。

Bitcoin’s 60-day correlation with gold has been rising steadily, raising questions about the world’s largest cryptocurrency’s long-touted independence from traditional markets.

比特币与黄金的 60 天相关性一直在稳步上升，引发了人们对这一全球最大加密货币长期宣扬的独立于传统市场的质疑。

Is BTC Losing Its “Digital Gold” Status?

BTC正在失去“数字黄金”地位吗？

Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has shifted over time. In late 2023, the correlation turned negative, indicating opposite movements. However, recent months have shown a positive trend, albeit still low. As of May 30, the correlation stands at 0.17, a far cry from the 0.5 level seen in 2022.

比特币与黄金的相关性随着时间的推移而发生变化。 2023 年末，相关性转为负值，表明走势相反。然而，近几个月显示出积极的趋势，尽管仍然较低。截至 5 月 30 日，相关性为 0.17，与 2022 年的 0.5 水平相去甚远。

A chart from Kaiko illustrates this trend. The 60-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and gold, displayed in blue, shows a gradual increase from early 2024. In contrast, the 2022 levels, depicted by the red line, indicate higher correlation throughout the year.

Kaiko 的图表说明了这一趋势。比特币和黄金之间的 60 天滚动相关性（以蓝色显示）显示从 2024 年初开始逐渐增加。相比之下，红线所示的 2022 年水平表明全年相关性较高。

The rising correlation could impact investment strategies. When assets are highly correlated, they offer poor diversification. For instance, an investment portfolio heavily weighted towards Bitcoin and gold might not provide optimal risk-adjusted returns compared to a more diversified portfolio.

相关性的上升可能会影响投资策略。当资产高度相关时，它们的多元化程度就很差。例如，与更加多元化的投资组合相比，严重偏向比特币和黄金的投资组合可能无法提供最佳的风险调整回报。

As a result, investors may need to reconsider their portfolio strategies, especially if they were initially drawn to Bitcoin’s low correlation with traditional assets.

因此，投资者可能需要重新考虑他们的投资组合策略，特别是如果他们最初被比特币与传统资产的低相关性所吸引。

Gold has experienced significant price movements in 2024. After peaking near $2,450 in May, the precious metal declined over 4% to trade at $2,328.20 on May 30.

黄金在 2024 年经历了大幅价格波动。在 5 月份触及 2,450 美元附近的峰值后，贵金属于 5 月 30 日下跌超过 4%，至 2,328.20 美元。

This volatility could influence Bitcoin’s relationship with gold. If gold prices continue to shift, it might impact Bitcoin’s market behavior and, subsequently, investment strategies.

这种波动可能会影响比特币与黄金的关系。如果金价继续变化，可能会影响比特币的市场行为，进而影响投资策略。

Bitcoin’s Decentralization Under Threat

比特币的去中心化受到威胁

One of the key selling points of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin has been their decentralized nature, operating outside the direct influence of government bodies.

比特币等加密货币的主要卖点之一是其去中心化性质，不受政府机构的直接影响。

However, Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with gold, an asset deeply integrated into traditional financial systems, threatens to undermine this very principle.

然而，比特币与黄金这种深深融入传统金融体系的资产的相关性日益增强，有可能破坏这一原则。

As the correlation strengthens, BTC’s price movements become more closely tied to those of gold. This development could erode crypto’s appeal as a hedge against traditional markets and cast doubt on its role as a revolutionary financial instrument.

随着相关性的增强，比特币的价格走势与黄金的价格走势变得更加紧密。这一发展可能会削弱加密货币作为传统市场对冲工具的吸引力，并使其作为革命性金融工具的作用产生怀疑。

Moreover, the growing correlation between Bitcoin and gold also presents a diversification challenge for crypto investors. Traditionally, assets with low or negative correlations have been preferred for portfolio diversification. They tend to move independently, reducing overall risk.

此外，比特币和黄金之间日益增强的相关性也给加密货币投资者带来了多元化挑战。传统上，低相关性或负相关性的资产是投资组合多元化的首选。他们倾向于独立行动，从而降低整体风险。

However, as Bitcoin’s correlation with gold increases, its potential to provide diversification benefits within a broader investment portfolio may be compromised.

然而，随着比特币与黄金的相关性增强，其在更广泛的投资组合中提供多元化收益的潜力可能会受到损害。