金磚國家的去美元化運動可能是比特幣的“下一個大進步”

日前，120個國家出席金磚國家國際市政論壇。然而緊隨其後，新

The International Municipal Forum of the BRICS countries was attended by 120 foreign countries a few days prior. Following this event, however, the New Development Bank hosted its 9th Annual Meeting. The President of the NDB, Dilma Rousseff, stated that the bank is working towards expanding the use of local currencies during the meeting. In other words, the NDB is working towards de-dollarization.

日前，金磚國家國際市政論壇已有120個國家出席。然而，此事件之後，新開發銀行舉辦了第九屆年會。新開發銀行行長迪爾瑪·羅塞夫在會議期間表示，該行正在努力擴大本幣的使用。換句話說，新開發銀行正在努力去美元化。

Hence, the question – What does this mean for Bitcoin?

因此，問題是──這對比特幣意味著什麼？

According to Rousseff,

根據羅塞夫的說法，

“One of the main focuses of the NDB is to increase the use of local currencies. We have decided that up to 30 per cent of the bank’s total funding will take place in local currencies”

「新開發銀行的主要重點之一是增加當地貨幣的使用。我們決定銀行總資金的 30% 將以當地貨幣進行”

An international movement?

國際運動？

BRICS has been at the forefront of this de-dollarization movement in recent years. In fact, during the 15th Annual Summit of the BRICS countries last year, there was much support for a singular “BRICS currency.” At the time, Brazil’s President Lula Da Silva said,

近年來，金磚國家一直處於去美元化運動的最前線。事實上，去年金磚國家第十五次年度會晤期間，就有很多人支持單一的「金磚貨幣」。當時，巴西總統盧拉·達席爾瓦表示，

“It increases our payment options and reduces our vulnerabilities.”

“它增加了我們的支付選擇並減少了我們的脆弱性。”

Here, it’s worth pointing out that most of the world is still far from de-dollarization. According to the Atlantic Council’s Dollar Dominance Monitor, for instance, the US Dollar still has a 58% share of all global forex reserves. Similarly, it has a share of 88% across all foreign exchange transactions.

在這裡，值得指出的是，世界大部分地區距離去美元化還很遠。例如，根據大西洋理事會的美元主導地位監測，美元仍佔全球外匯存底的 58%。同樣，它在所有外匯交易中佔有 88% 的份額。

Source: Atlantic Council

資料來源：大西洋理事會

Simply put, de-dollarization won’t happen in the short term or the medium term. This, despite the fact that to China’s credit, it has steadily been de-dollarizing itself.

簡而言之，去美元化在短期或中期都不會發生。儘管值得讚揚的是，中國一直在穩步實現去美元化。

Source: X

來源：X

On the contrary, it could happen in the long term. Especially since the USD’s share of all global foreign reserves has fallen from 65.3% to 58.8% in the last 8 years alone. Similarly, many countries, especially those associated with BRICS, have been accumulating gold despite rising prices.

相反，從長遠來看，這種情況可能會發生。特別是僅在過去8年裡，美元佔全球外匯存底的份額就從65.3%下降至58.8%。同樣，許多國家，尤其是金磚國家，儘管金價不斷上漲，但一直在累積黃金。

Source: Atlantic Council

資料來源：大西洋理事會

Gold’s status as a reserve and as a a store of value has increased since 2019, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic. Subsequently, there has been great interest in other asset classes that have store of value characteristics too. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, are now seen as one such asset class.

自 2019 年以來，尤其是自 COVID-19 大流行以來，黃金作為儲備和保值手段的地位有所提高。隨後，人們對其他也具有價值儲存特徵的資產類別產生了濃厚的興趣。比特幣和加密貨幣現在被視為這樣的資產類別之一。

Bitcoin to the rescue?

比特幣來拯救？

Russia and Iran, for instance, are already using Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining to get around the effects of international sanctions on them. In fact, the former is also beta testing cryptocurrency exchanges to see how cross-border crypto transactions will work.

例如，俄羅斯和伊朗已經在使用比特幣和比特幣挖礦來規避國際制裁對其的影響。事實上，前者也在對加密貨幣交易所進行測試，以了解跨境加密交易將如何運作。

As an organization too, BRICS has been interested in launching a gold-backed stablecoin, especially on the back of its previous discussions about a “BRICS currency.”

作為一個組織，金磚國家一直對推出黃金支持的穩定幣感興趣，特別是在之前關於「金磚國家貨幣」的討論之後。

Apart from these interests, there is also great interest among many countries to go El Salvador’s way and buy Bitcoin as a treasury asset. President Bukele, when he announced this step back in 2021, also intended to “de-dollarize” the economy, despite criticism from the World Bank and IMF.

除了這些利益之外，許多國家也有很大興趣效法薩爾瓦多的做法，購買比特幣作為國庫資產。儘管受到世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織的批評，布克萊總統在 2021 年宣布這項措施時，也打算讓經濟「去美元化」。

2024 is a different world, however, with major institutions like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet also entering the cryptocurrency market. Not only that, but Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are also now among the most popular on Wall Street – A sign of institutional interest in this asset class.

然而，2024 年是一個不同的世界，MicroStrategy 和 Metaplanet 等主要機構也進入了加密貨幣市場。不僅如此，比特幣和以太幣 ETF 現在也是華爾街最受歡迎的ETF之一——這表明機構對這一資產類別感興趣。

All these developments, together, have crypto awaiting the next big leg up. If BRICS countries are successful in their effort to de-dollarize and if even a minor percentage of the USD’s liquidity is directed towards cryptos, the market might change forever.

所有這些發展加在一起，讓加密貨幣等待下一個重大的發展。如果金磚國家的去美元化努力取得成功，即使美元流動性的一小部分流向加密貨幣，市場也可能永遠改變。