金砖国家的去美元化运动可能是比特币的“下一个大进步”

日前，120个国家出席金砖国家国际市政论坛。然而紧随其后，新

The International Municipal Forum of the BRICS countries was attended by 120 foreign countries a few days prior. Following this event, however, the New Development Bank hosted its 9th Annual Meeting. The President of the NDB, Dilma Rousseff, stated that the bank is working towards expanding the use of local currencies during the meeting. In other words, the NDB is working towards de-dollarization.

日前，金砖国家国际市政论坛已有120个国家出席。然而，此事件之后，新开发银行举办了第九届年会。新开发银行行长迪尔玛·罗塞夫在会议期间表示，该行正在努力扩大本币的使用。换句话说，新开发银行正在努力实现去美元化。

Hence, the question – What does this mean for Bitcoin?

因此，问题是——这对比特币意味着什么？

According to Rousseff,

根据罗塞夫的说法，

“One of the main focuses of the NDB is to increase the use of local currencies. We have decided that up to 30 per cent of the bank’s total funding will take place in local currencies”

“新开发银行的主要重点之一是增加当地货币的使用。我们决定银行总资金的 30% 将以当地货币进行”

An international movement?

国际运动？

BRICS has been at the forefront of this de-dollarization movement in recent years. In fact, during the 15th Annual Summit of the BRICS countries last year, there was much support for a singular “BRICS currency.” At the time, Brazil’s President Lula Da Silva said,

近年来，金砖国家一直处于去美元化运动的最前沿。事实上，去年金砖国家第十五次年度会晤期间，就有很多人支持单一的“金砖货币”。当时，巴西总统卢拉·达席尔瓦表示，

“It increases our payment options and reduces our vulnerabilities.”

“它增加了我们的支付选择并减少了我们的脆弱性。”

Here, it’s worth pointing out that most of the world is still far from de-dollarization. According to the Atlantic Council’s Dollar Dominance Monitor, for instance, the US Dollar still has a 58% share of all global forex reserves. Similarly, it has a share of 88% across all foreign exchange transactions.

在这里，值得指出的是，世界大部分地区距离去美元化还很远。例如，根据大西洋理事会的美元主导地位监测，美元仍占全球外汇储备的 58%。同样，它在所有外汇交易中占有 88% 的份额。

Source: Atlantic Council

资料来源：大西洋理事会

Simply put, de-dollarization won’t happen in the short term or the medium term. This, despite the fact that to China’s credit, it has steadily been de-dollarizing itself.

简而言之，去美元化在短期或中期都不会发生。尽管值得赞扬的是，中国一直在稳步实现去美元化。

Source: X

来源：X

On the contrary, it could happen in the long term. Especially since the USD’s share of all global foreign reserves has fallen from 65.3% to 58.8% in the last 8 years alone. Similarly, many countries, especially those associated with BRICS, have been accumulating gold despite rising prices.

相反，从长远来看，这种情况可能会发生。特别是仅在过去8年里，美元占全球外汇储备的份额就从65.3%下降至58.8%。同样，许多国家，尤其是金砖国家，尽管金价不断上涨，但一直在积累黄金。

Source: Atlantic Council

资料来源：大西洋理事会

Gold’s status as a reserve and as a a store of value has increased since 2019, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic. Subsequently, there has been great interest in other asset classes that have store of value characteristics too. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, are now seen as one such asset class.

自 2019 年以来，尤其是自 COVID-19 大流行以来，黄金作为储备和保值手段的地位有所提高。随后，人们对其他也具有价值储存特征的资产类别产生了浓厚的兴趣。比特币和加密货币现在被视为这样的资产类别之一。

Bitcoin to the rescue?

比特币来拯救？

Russia and Iran, for instance, are already using Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining to get around the effects of international sanctions on them. In fact, the former is also beta testing cryptocurrency exchanges to see how cross-border crypto transactions will work.

例如，俄罗斯和伊朗已经在使用比特币和比特币挖矿来规避国际制裁对其的影响。事实上，前者也在对加密货币交易所进行测试，以了解跨境加密交易将如何运作。

As an organization too, BRICS has been interested in launching a gold-backed stablecoin, especially on the back of its previous discussions about a “BRICS currency.”

作为一个组织，金砖国家一直对推出黄金支持的稳定币感兴趣，特别是在之前关于“金砖国家货币”的讨论之后。

Apart from these interests, there is also great interest among many countries to go El Salvador’s way and buy Bitcoin as a treasury asset. President Bukele, when he announced this step back in 2021, also intended to “de-dollarize” the economy, despite criticism from the World Bank and IMF.

除了这些利益之外，许多国家也有很大兴趣效仿萨尔瓦多的做法，购买比特币作为国库资产。尽管受到世界银行和国际货币基金组织的批评，布克莱总统在 2021 年宣布这一举措时，也打算让经济“去美元化”。

2024 is a different world, however, with major institutions like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet also entering the cryptocurrency market. Not only that, but Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are also now among the most popular on Wall Street – A sign of institutional interest in this asset class.

然而，2024 年是一个不同的世界，MicroStrategy 和 Metaplanet 等主要机构也进入了加密货币市场。不仅如此，比特币和以太坊 ETF 现在也是华尔街最受欢迎的ETF之一——这表明机构对这一资产类别感兴趣。

All these developments, together, have crypto awaiting the next big leg up. If BRICS countries are successful in their effort to de-dollarize and if even a minor percentage of the USD’s liquidity is directed towards cryptos, the market might change forever.

所有这些发展加在一起，让加密货币等待着下一个大的发展。如果金砖国家的去美元化努力取得成功，并且即使美元流动性的一小部分流向加密货币，市场也可能会永远改变。