降息 50 個基點會引發比特幣多頭市場嗎？

隨著加密貨幣社群等待聯準會 (Fed) 於 9 月 18 日宣布降息，比特幣 (BTC) 和更廣泛的領域面臨著很高的風險。

As the crypto community awaits the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut announcement on September 18, the stakes are high for Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader financial landscape.

隨著加密貨幣社群等待聯準會 (Fed) 於 9 月 18 日宣布降息，比特幣 (BTC) 和更廣泛的金融格局面臨著很高的風險。

This upcoming decision marks the first central bank rate cut since the Fed slashed its key rate to near zero in March 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

即將做出的決定標誌著聯準會自 2020 年 3 月在 COVID-19 大流行期間將關鍵利率削減至接近零以來首次央行降息。

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a 59% chance of a half-percentage-point rate cut and a 41% chance of a quarter-point cut. There’s an overwhelming expectation that by the end of 2024, the Fed could implement up to 100 basis points in cuts, with nearly 60% odds of 125 basis points.

根據芝商所的 FedWatch 工具，市場目前預計降息半個百分點的可能性為 59%，降息四分之一個百分點的可能性為 41%。人們普遍預期，到 2024 年底，聯準會可能會實施最多 100 個基點的降息，近 60% 的可能性是 125 個基點。

This suggests that investors anticipate at least one or two substantial rate cuts in the three remaining Fed meetings of the year, starting with this week’s announcement.

這表明，從本週的聲明開始，投資者預計今年剩餘的三場聯準會會議將至少大幅降息一兩次。

The potential effects of a 50 basis point cut remain hotly debated within the crypto industry. Market expert Crypto Rover argues that such a cut could reignite a bull run for Bitcoin, stating that the conditions could lead to “super bullish” prospects.

降息 50 個基點的潛在影響在加密貨幣行業內仍然存在激烈爭論。市場專家 Crypto Rover 認為，這樣的降息可能會重新引發比特幣的牛市，並表示這種情況可能會導致「超級看漲」的前景。

Similarly, analyst Lark Davis recalls how Bitcoin previously surged following past rate cuts, predicting that if history repeats, the next 6-12 months could see significant price increases for the largest cryptocurrency on the market.

同樣，分析師 Lark Davis 回憶起比特幣在過去的降息後如何飆升，並預測如果歷史重演，未來 6-12 個月市場上最大的加密貨幣的價格可能會大幅上漲。

In addition to optimism and bullish expectations, other analysts express caution. EmperorBTC predicts an initial market pump following the rate cut, driven by cheaper borrowing costs.

除了樂觀和看漲預期之外，其他分析師也表達了謹慎態度。 EmpireBTC 預計，在藉貸成本下降的推動下，降息後市場將出現最初的上漲。

However, the analyst warns of profit-taking by short-term holders leading to a subsequent market dump, suggesting a “sell the news” scenario that could leave many investors disillusioned before the market stabilizes and resumes growth.

然而，分析師警告稱，短期持有者的獲利了結將導致隨後的市場暴跌，這表明「賣出消息」的情況可能會讓許多投資者在市場穩定並恢復成長之前幻滅。

On the other hand, technical analyst Justin Bennett offers a more cautionary historical perspective. He points to the market’s performance during the Fed’s rate cuts in 2007, when the Nasdaq 100 Index retraced significantly after the initial cuts, suggesting that the same pattern could emerge in 2023.

另一方面，技術分析師賈斯汀·貝內特（Justin Bennett）提出了更謹慎的歷史觀點。他指出了 2007 年聯準會降息期間的市場表現，當時納斯達克 100 指數在首次降息後大幅回撤，這表明 2023 年可能會出現同樣的模式。

Bennett’s analysis suggests that current market conditions may mirror previous downturns, calling into question the optimistic projections shared by some for the broader digital asset market.

貝內特的分析表明，當前的市場狀況可能反映了先前的低迷時期，這讓一些人對更廣泛的數位資產市場的樂觀預測產生了質疑。

In a similar vein, NewsBTC reported on Monday the analysis of crypto strategist Doctor Profit, in which he highlights a divided sentiment in the market regarding the rate cut, with equal chances of a 0.25% or 0.50% reduction.

同樣，NewsBTC 週一報告了加密貨幣策略師 Doctor Profit 的分析，其中他強調了市場對降息的分歧情緒，降息 0.25% 或 0.50% 的可能性相同。

However, the analyst is leaning towards the larger cut, arguing that failure to take decisive action could lead to turmoil reminiscent of “Blood Monday” on August 5, when Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline to $48,900.

然而，分析師傾向於更大幅度的降息，他認為，如果不採取果斷行動，可能會導致類似於 8 月 5 日「血腥星期一」的動盪，當時比特幣大幅下跌至 48,900 美元。

Despite the divided sentiment in the market, Bitcoin has jumped from the $57,000 mark traded on Monday to a current price of $61,000, recording a surge of nearly 6% in a matter of hours in anticipation of tomorrow’s announcements.

儘管市場情緒存在分歧，但比特幣已從週一交易的 57,000 美元大關躍升至當前的 61,000 美元，在對明天公告的預期下，在幾個小時內飆升了近 6%。