降息 50 个基点会引发比特币牛市吗？

随着加密货币社区等待美联储 (Fed) 于 9 月 18 日宣布降息，比特币 (BTC) 和更广泛的领域面临着很高的风险。

As the crypto community awaits the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut announcement on September 18, the stakes are high for Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader financial landscape.

随着加密货币社区等待美联储 (Fed) 于 9 月 18 日宣布降息，比特币 (BTC) 和更广泛的金融格局面临着很高的风险。

This upcoming decision marks the first central bank rate cut since the Fed slashed its key rate to near zero in March 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

即将做出的这一决定标志着美联储自 2020 年 3 月在 COVID-19 大流行期间将关键利率削减至接近零以来首次央行降息。

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a 59% chance of a half-percentage-point rate cut and a 41% chance of a quarter-point cut. There’s an overwhelming expectation that by the end of 2024, the Fed could implement up to 100 basis points in cuts, with nearly 60% odds of 125 basis points.

根据芝商所的 FedWatch 工具，市场目前预计降息半个百分点的可能性为 59%，降息四分之一个百分点的可能性为 41%。人们普遍预期，到 2024 年底，美联储可能会实施最多 100 个基点的降息，近 60% 的可能性是 125 个基点。

This suggests that investors anticipate at least one or two substantial rate cuts in the three remaining Fed meetings of the year, starting with this week’s announcement.

这表明，从本周的声明开始，投资者预计今年剩余的三场美联储会议将至少大幅降息一两次。

The potential effects of a 50 basis point cut remain hotly debated within the crypto industry. Market expert Crypto Rover argues that such a cut could reignite a bull run for Bitcoin, stating that the conditions could lead to “super bullish” prospects.

降息 50 个基点的潜在影响在加密货币行业内仍然存在激烈争论。市场专家 Crypto Rover 认为，这样的降息可能会重新引发比特币的牛市，并表示这种情况可能会导致“超级看涨”的前景。

Similarly, analyst Lark Davis recalls how Bitcoin previously surged following past rate cuts, predicting that if history repeats, the next 6-12 months could see significant price increases for the largest cryptocurrency on the market.

同样，分析师 Lark Davis 回忆起比特币在过去的降息后如何飙升，并预测如果历史重演，未来 6-12 个月市场上最大的加密货币的价格可能会大幅上涨。

In addition to optimism and bullish expectations, other analysts express caution. EmperorBTC predicts an initial market pump following the rate cut, driven by cheaper borrowing costs.

除了乐观和看涨预期之外，其他分析师也表达了谨慎态度。 EmpireBTC 预计，在借贷成本下降的推动下，降息后市场将出现最初的上涨。

However, the analyst warns of profit-taking by short-term holders leading to a subsequent market dump, suggesting a “sell the news” scenario that could leave many investors disillusioned before the market stabilizes and resumes growth.

然而，分析师警告称，短期持有者的获利了结将导致随后的市场暴跌，这表明“卖出消息”的情况可能会让许多投资者在市场稳定并恢复增长之前幻灭。

On the other hand, technical analyst Justin Bennett offers a more cautionary historical perspective. He points to the market’s performance during the Fed’s rate cuts in 2007, when the Nasdaq 100 Index retraced significantly after the initial cuts, suggesting that the same pattern could emerge in 2023.

另一方面，技术分析师贾斯汀·贝内特（Justin Bennett）提出了更为谨慎的历史观点。他指出了 2007 年美联储降息期间的市场表现，当时纳斯达克 100 指数在首次降息后大幅回撤，这表明 2023 年可能会出现同样的模式。

Bennett’s analysis suggests that current market conditions may mirror previous downturns, calling into question the optimistic projections shared by some for the broader digital asset market.

贝内特的分析表明，当前的市场状况可能反映了之前的低迷时期，这让一些人对更广泛的数字资产市场的乐观预测产生了质疑。

In a similar vein, NewsBTC reported on Monday the analysis of crypto strategist Doctor Profit, in which he highlights a divided sentiment in the market regarding the rate cut, with equal chances of a 0.25% or 0.50% reduction.

同样，NewsBTC 周一报道了加密货币策略师 Doctor Profit 的分析，其中他强调了市场对降息的分歧情绪，降息 0.25% 或 0.50% 的可能性相同。

However, the analyst is leaning towards the larger cut, arguing that failure to take decisive action could lead to turmoil reminiscent of “Blood Monday” on August 5, when Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline to $48,900.

然而，分析师倾向于更大幅度的降息，他认为，如果不采取果断行动，可能会导致类似于 8 月 5 日“血腥星期一”的动荡，当时比特币大幅下跌至 48,900 美元。

Despite the divided sentiment in the market, Bitcoin has jumped from the $57,000 mark traded on Monday to a current price of $61,000, recording a surge of nearly 6% in a matter of hours in anticipation of tomorrow’s announcements.

尽管市场情绪存在分歧，但比特币已从周一交易的 57,000 美元大关跃升至当前的 61,000 美元，在对明天公告的预期下，在几个小时内飙升了近 6%。